Tracking Ohio’s absentee ballot requests--THE POLLS ALL WRONG--AWESOME NUMBERS

RedState ^ | 09-28-2012 | Moe Lane

[GilGil]

The current narrative that Ohioan Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about voting in 2012 as they were in 2008.

[LS]

"My" work is that of Jay Cost, who did the spreadsheet. All I do is add some OH background on history and county performance. I did not know it was Jay's when Freeper plushaye sent the first link to me. It was not referenced as Cost's, and neither plushaye nor I had any name associated with it, just an e-mail that no one ever answered.

But what I've done is to show county data on how vast the change is percentage wise over 2008.

[GilGil]

Here is something to think about. 660,000 votes separated McCain from winning against Obama. In other words, the vote for Obama in 2008 was very, very close. He did not win by that much,

[AndyTheBear]

As both a conservative and mathematician, I like this news :-).

[barmag25]

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/ohio.html

[GilGil]

When the trolls are out in force you know we are winning. this is becoming so obvious.

[tsowellfan]

I’m actually one who believes early voting can help republicans. I always vote weeks before the election because if I do not my job may not permit me to vote at all. If I’m working I cannot vote. I happen to believe that there are many working people out there (well, under normal economic situations) who would vote for the pro-business candidate if they had the time.

But I do know that early voting can also increase the chances of democrat voter fraud. Voter fraud can and does happen in places where you cannot vote early. We need to separate the two issues and punish voter fraud to the max.

Voting is a right. When a democrat (or anybody) votes more than once they are disenfranchising somebody else’s right to vote.

[MNJohnnie]

But, hey. See ya after Election Day when we can pick up the pieces, get rid of the idiots and march Conservatism to 2016.

NO you won't. We are at the tipping point. See the chart. By 2016 things will be so far gone fiscally there will be no coming back. Romney is our last shot. If we don't turn it now there is no turning it. So WAKE UP, your sort of pathetic sour grapes just may destroy the USA. Sorry your candidate of choice did not get the GOP nomination. Get over it.

FY 2007 Last Bush/GOP Congress. FY 2011 Last Obama/Dem Congress. Even you should be able to comprehend the different between $160 billion and $1.6 TRILLION

[beandog]

If getting rid of the idiots means getting rid of you, I’m all for it.

[barmag25]

I like our numbers in Ohio.

Time to start breaking down Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, & Iowa.

I would like to think we find the same things.

[MNJohnnie]

Here is a chart that shows you how idiotic your faith in the polling is.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Oh I know that guy is a troll. I can spot a troll right away, there were paid trolls in 2008 too. I talked to someone online about how they are paid 10 bucks an online to go on Conservative forums and say how the election is over, all is lost, you have no chance of winning. They are VERY easy to spot, especially this particular one..Every poll that comes out here he is with his spin on it. I dont give a damn if Romney is down 70 points I will drag my ass to the voting place here in LA and vote for him..If I can get my fanny to go vote even in Liberal Los Angeles everyone else can

[1035rep]

Yes he’s a drive-by troll. He has even lied about having Romney’s internal poll numbers. He never answers replies so we can’t engage him. He’s been saying since he got here that we’re going to be “slaughtered”

[GilGil]

No doubt. Totally agree. I hope the MSM continues along this lying. The democrats might get so over confident that many won’t show up to vote. At the same time, we can outflank them with our overwhelming numbers and win before they realize what happened.

[Windflier]

...we will win it without the help of all the no-can-do Freepers...

Do you really need to name-call your fellow patriots who've decided to maintain their personal honor and integrity in this election?

We holdouts want Obama gone as badly as any of you, but not at the expense of throwing in with a man who represents everything we've been fighting against for most of our lives. Don't you get it?

I'm not down on you for doing what you think you must. I know that someone's got to vote for the liberal from Massachusetts, if we want to beat Obama. Do what you've got to do. I won't run you down for it.

As much as I despise Mutt Romney, I'm heartened to hear this news out of Ohio. I've thought from the beginning that the Republican challenger was going to win anyway - no matter who we picked. I just hope that Romney grasps the fact that he can't play politics as usual when he gets to the White House. Those days are gone. We've got a country to save - and not a moment too soon.

[GilGil]

Just heard Hugh Hewitt and he said Florida was in the bag. Methinks we may be in the makings of a Reagan landslide.

[1035rep]

That may be true of you but not the poster she is replying to.

[1035rep]

Sorry Windflier, I thought you were referring to her post to RIwardHo.

[tsowellfan]

Oh, I believe the MSM polls are indeed rigged. They always are. If they were not this year it would be out of the ordinary.

But to say that because they are rigged Romney’s way ahead and is actually beating Obama - I have not seen anything that convinces me of that.

I heard on the radio today (and Hannity conceded this as well today) that Obama is 3% to 5% ahead of Romney. Add in voter fraud and that puts him at least 8% ahead of Romney right now.

If we run around claiming that Romney’s beating Obama when he’s not, there are ABO voters out there who do not feel the urgent need to send Romney money or even get involved going door to door or making phone calls. I mean, if all is fine and dandy, why make any changes?

If we do not realize this, we will feel no need to make any changes.

I know the polls are skewed but the difference is that the people I meet in my daily life are more consistent with these polls (unlike 2002, 2004, 2010). We all have our internal polls. Mine’s telling me I should not be impressed with Romney’s performance.

He should be 12% - 15% ahead of Obama right now.

[plushaye]

The assumptions here are that registered Dems request ballots and will return them to vote Dem. Registered Reps request ballots and return them to vote Rep. Some people can request ballots and not return them. Also, in 2008, Reps requested ballots and voted Dem, so some caution is necessary as it’s still early.

Still, so far, with all the caveats, this is the only voting HARD EVIDENCE so far that Dems are not enthused about voting and Reps are very enthused. Dem ballot requests are way less than they were in 2008 (by county) and Rep ballots are way more. If this trend continues, and it has been, the idea of D+7 polls or more are garbage.

[PermaRag]

But I do know that early voting can also increase the chances of democrat voter fraud. Voter fraud can and does happen in places where you cannot vote early. We need to separate the two issues and punish voter fraud to the max.

Voting is a right. When a democrat (or anybody) votes more than once they are disenfranchising somebody else’s right to vote.

Amen to that.

It's good that Rat enthusiasm is apparently down a bit in places like Cleveland, and after the past four years Republican enthusiasm should be off the charts everywhere even with Mitt as the nominee. But to extrapolate from some fragementary figures of dubious value to a Reagan-esque 60+ percent vote for Mitt is beyond delusional.