Posted on 09/29/2012 10:00:36 AM PDT by faucetman
I’m done with polls...FOREVER!
Rush has talked about the Battleground Poll in the past, and how he took it more seriously than the others. I don’t remember how its predictions fell in 2008.
I'm highly encouraged, since both Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008 won a majority of the Catholic vote. If Obama is really 6 points behind where he was with Catholics last time, he should at least start getting bids from moving companies. Catholics are 20-28% of the US population versus 13.1% who self identify as African American.
A church that is unequivocally of the cloth about social issues like homosexual marriage and abortion yet only 51% of their members can get the gumption to vote against it?
Tells me average Catholic isn't too in tune with Rome.
I ain't Catholic, don't have that issue politically. My church is probably 95% conservative. My issue in my denomination would be stupid preachers asking for money on TV and angering me but in this dissonance between Rome and her flock.
I'm with Rome and they need to crack that whip....or really clean their herd. Pelosi should not even be allowed in much less kneel at the altar unless she is formally repenting.
One thing I did notice growing up in Dixie where most old bloods were Protestant except the Creoles was that my Irish and Polish and Italian and Leb Syrian Catholic pals could get away with more and get forgiven easier an option we did not have ...no question fire and brimstones had it's effect...that and shame instead of guilt but...those nuns would sure light em up...the Gloriosos, Avalonis, Saiks, Iupes, Simons, Reillys, Supernovich, Necaise...etc ..were all terrified of their nuns...they wore big stern habits in those days too
I agree. I would also add Gallup, but only once it gets within two weeks of election day.
Thus:
Obviously true on election day, but at this point, not all that important.
Romney is behind right now. He needs a shift in momentum in the worst way. If and when he gets it, it will show up in the national polls first because they are conducted the most often.
The “swing state” polls won’t reflect it until later mainly because they are conducted far less frequently. As the national polls shift (if they do), the swing state polls will shift as well. You just won’t notice it for a while.
That is why focusing on them at this stage in the game, isn’t worth a whole lot.
Hard data we are tracking in Ohio - the absentee ballot requests per county - are looking exceptionally good for Republicans. If the trend continues in both Republican and Democrat dominated states, that map of Ohio will not be blue.
Search for posts of FReepers: Revi, LS, LDSentinal to keep up-to-date with this.
The data is also being analyzed at Redstate (by Moe Lane), and Hugh Hewitt
Obama is not winning North Carolina. It’s not even a swing state anymore. Anybody still pushing that is trying to demoralize voters.
I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.
See ya at the polls commies!
Your “User generated map” is way off. Obama is taking North Carolina too? Don’t be ridiculous.
“Unfortunately, national polls mean nothing.”
You lost me with this first sentence. People who dismiss national polls simply don’t pay close enough attention to history. An ACCURATE national poll (such as Rasmussen) is very meaningful, because there is little chance that one candidate wins the national popular vote and loses the election. Yes, it happened in 2000, but that was a case where things were breaking in both directions.
Bush was leading, but Gore was quickly making up ground after the Bush DUI came out the weekend prior to the election. This COULD happen again, but it’s very rare.
Usually, the majority of the electorate breaks one way or another. Meaning, if for example, most undecideds break for the challenger (which generally happens during a bad economy) and Romney ends up at 52% or 53% nationally — Ohio, FL, VA, CO, certainly NC, and most likely either or both of IA and NV will fall his way as well.
“I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.”
Agreed.
But this one isn’t:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
The numbers look better for Romney than on the map in post #26 — but they’re still not all that good, especially in Ohio and Virginia and Florida. Romeny isn’t winning without at least two of those, and one MUST be Florida.
When are his numbers going to start changing?
“I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.”
Agreed.
But this one isn’t:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard
The numbers look better for Romney than on the map in post #26 — but they’re still not all that good, especially in Ohio and Virginia and Florida. Romeny isn’t winning without at least two of those, and one MUST be Florida.
When are his numbers going to start changing?
Probably the last week before the election. See tagline.
As it pertains to the Presidential election this is true and you concede, and it is the electoral college that determines who is elected, not national polling data 39 days ahead of November 6th.
BTW, I don't see only one poll that shows that Romney is winning in North Carolina. Rasmussen. Now I like Rasmussen, but it is only one out of seven that show him ahead there as of today.
“Ridiculous” is thinking that Romney is ahead in either electoral votes or national polls at this point. Oh, and I didn’t generate the map.
“A church that is unequivocally of the cloth about social issues like homosexual marriage and abortion yet only 51% of their members can get the gumption to vote against it?”
51% of catholics dont have the gumption to go to church on sunday. they are CINOs. and another slice are the minority 47%ers.
If Romney wins 51% of catholic he wins the election.
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