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The Battleground Poll 9/24/2012
The Tarrance Group ^ | 9/29/2012 | Faucetman

Posted on 09/29/2012 10:00:36 AM PDT by faucetman

"In our latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll with middle class families, which comprise about fifty-four percent (54%) of the total American Electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a fourteen-point advantage (55%-41%)."

(Excerpt) Read more at tarrance.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; class; election; polls; romney
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Checking today for the latest "Battleground Poll" I found they had very recently posted a new poll. (Don't dismiss this because of the Politico participation it's a bi-partisan poll)

http://www.tarrance.com/2012/09/the-49th-edition-of-the-politico-gw-battleground-poll/

select from this list: The data released includes the questionnaire, charts, tables, Republican and Democrat analysis.

The excerpt above is from the "Republican" analysis. I also looked at the Democrat analysis.

I first became aware of this poll in 1994. I was watching a roundtable discussion on C Span with a dozen (or more) pollsters. They went down the line asking the pollsters to predict the expected gains for each party. The Democrat pollsters naturally predicted modest gains for Republicans. Republican pollsters naturally predicted larger gains. When they got to Ed Goaz (The Republican half of The Battleground Poll), he said (I don't remember the exact amount) something like 40 or more House seats. Everyone else on the panel burst into laughter.

As we now know, it was a Republican LANDSLIDE taking control of the House for the first time in 40 years, gaining 54 seats. (8 Senate seats)

This is why I take the Republican half (Ed Goaz) of this poll as gospel. He has continued to be accurate.

I did notice a change in the Democrat analysis. It seemed more like a campaign release. Smarmy, with buzz words like "47 per cent". It just didn't sound credible to me. On the "middle class", the two reports were 180 degrees opposed. The tone of the Dems analysis and the many quoted statistics of the Republican analysis, leads me to objectively believe the Republican analysis and Ed Goaz.

If you are not familiar with this poll, you should check it out and come to your own conclusions. I believe it to be an accurate poll.

I have no affiliation with this poll, group, or anybody involved with it.

1 posted on 09/29/2012 10:00:43 AM PDT by faucetman
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To: faucetman

The author should be “Ed Goeas and Brian Nienaber” not me. Moderator please correct my error.


2 posted on 09/29/2012 10:07:52 AM PDT by faucetman ( Just the facts, ma'am, Just the facts)
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To: faucetman

I pray it is correct...!!!!


3 posted on 09/29/2012 10:08:21 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: EagleUSA

The 55-41% lead for Romney, from what I read, refers to his lead with “middle-class families”. I’m not sure what percent of the population constitutes middle-class families but I would guess it’s significant.


4 posted on 09/29/2012 10:22:18 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: faucetman
"In our latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll with middle class families, which comprise about fifty-four percent (54%) of the total American Electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a fourteen-point advantage (55%-41%)."

"In fact, even with all of the misleading partisan attacks on the proposals from Paul Ryan to reform Medicare, a majority of seniors (61%) select a pocketbook issue and not Medicare as their top issue of concern and nearly six in ten seniors (58%) are voting for the Romney/Ryan ticket."

Read that paragraph above and think Florida!

5 posted on 09/29/2012 10:27:03 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: faucetman

LOL. Joe Biden has higher unfavorables than Paul Ryan!


6 posted on 09/29/2012 10:28:52 AM PDT by GVnana
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To: faucetman

It’s not enough to just beat him. He has to lose, fall down in the mud and get egg on his face and then poop his pants. The Dems must be utterly humiliated, with their free phone lady, their free colonoscopies, and their free booze and cigs for vagrant voters.


7 posted on 09/29/2012 10:29:42 AM PDT by Eleutheria5 (End the occupation. Annex today.)
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To: Signalman
54% of the population.

"All of this data makes clear that Mitt Romney has won the strong support of middle class families and is leading the President on an overwhelming majority of key measurements beyond just the ballot. In fact, when respondents were asked who, Barrack Obama or Mitt Romney, would best handle a variety of issues, Romney led on all but one including the economy (+9%), foreign policy (+3), spending (+15%), taxes (+7%), Medicare (+2), and jobs (+10).

"Ironically, the one measurement Obama led Mitt Romney on was “standing up for the middle class” (+8 Obama), reinforcing that often the Democrats win the message war with the middle class, but not their hearts and souls."

Pay careful attention to the last sentence. Note, people parrot the junk the hear but don't believe it.

8 posted on 09/29/2012 10:30:04 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; Evil Slayer; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; ...

Poll ping.


9 posted on 09/29/2012 10:30:28 AM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: faucetman

Contrary to some other polls (PEW etc), guess who is winning the faith-based electorate? Romney has got a majority of Catholics, according to this poll. That’s usually a predictive factor for a presidential election.

The middle class double digit lead is very big news as well. That would include a LOT of independents. It’s those indies who are always the wild card. There must be a reason why democratic party registration plummeted since 2008 across the swing states and OH, and the Independent registration jumped. Doesn’t seem like these indies would be voting lock-step with the Democrats either.


10 posted on 09/29/2012 10:31:53 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: faucetman

Three polls to watch, Mason Dixon, Battle Ground, and Ras.


11 posted on 09/29/2012 10:35:09 AM PDT by Little Bill
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To: plushaye

Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank


12 posted on 09/29/2012 10:36:56 AM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: wardaddy

I think it’s going to be a lot more, but the pollsters aren’t picking up the wave yet.

Still, who the Catholics vote for as president, are usually the winners, through the history of presidential voting.


13 posted on 09/29/2012 10:45:41 AM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: wardaddy
Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank

To a huge percentage of US Catholics English is a second language,if ya catch my drift.Many of the rest are ethnic Catholics (Irish/Italian/Polish) who tending to be blue collar union types.That would explain it.

14 posted on 09/29/2012 10:56:27 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive!)
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To: plushaye

15 posted on 09/29/2012 11:00:49 AM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: Little Bill
Three polls to watch, Mason Dixon, Battle Ground, and Ras.

I've heard IBD/TIPP is good as well.

I wouldn't give two cents for any of the others, esp. Gallup.

16 posted on 09/29/2012 11:01:19 AM PDT by Marathoner (If the bastard were to win reelection, let America burn. IDGAF anymore.)
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To: wardaddy

If I recall, Al Gore took the Catholic vote 54 to 46. So a Romney lead with this group is significant.

Only one third of Catholics attend church regularly. Another third Easter-Christmas-Mothers Day and the last third never go to church. That last third is strongly Democratic.


17 posted on 09/29/2012 11:03:40 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: plushaye
Still, who the Catholics vote for as president, are usually the winners

Too bad Southern baptists or Assemblies of God voting trends don't determine the winners.

LOL ..it would be a boring forum...I can just hear us now.."oh what another election we are guaranteed to win by at least 85% of the vote...oh what to fight over?"

Latinos have made Catholics even more liberal leaning as a voting bloc..that and other demographic features like urban and northeast or rustbelt

just a hunch but areas where white Catholics are more conservative in general is probably where that holds true for the general population as well

I'm in semi rural TN and the non hispanic Catholics I know who go to church may be a bit more good works leaning than me but they vote GOP

but I bet were I in Irish Bronx or South Philly Italian it would be different

18 posted on 09/29/2012 11:07:39 AM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: faucetman

To tell you honestly, I have a lot of respect for the polling results and past performance and accuracy of the following polling outfits :

BATTLEGROUND POLL ( TARANCE GROUP )

SURVEY USA ( ESPECIALLY AT THE STATE LEVEL )

RASMUSSEN

Those 3 have proven to be consistently accurate. The rest are mostly noise.

Surprisingly, ZOGBY has been quite silent this year.


19 posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:54 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: Gay State Conservative

How many of the Trades Union Vote is working?


20 posted on 09/29/2012 11:11:54 AM PDT by Little Bill
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To: faucetman

I’m done with polls...FOREVER!


21 posted on 09/29/2012 11:12:30 AM PDT by Leep
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To: faucetman

Rush has talked about the Battleground Poll in the past, and how he took it more seriously than the others. I don’t remember how its predictions fell in 2008.


22 posted on 09/29/2012 11:12:40 AM PDT by SuziQ
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To: Gay State Conservative
"Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank"

I'm highly encouraged, since both Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008 won a majority of the Catholic vote. If Obama is really 6 points behind where he was with Catholics last time, he should at least start getting bids from moving companies. Catholics are 20-28% of the US population versus 13.1% who self identify as African American.

23 posted on 09/29/2012 11:14:05 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: cicero2k; mrsmel
It may be significant compared to 2000 election but it's not inspiring.

A church that is unequivocally of the cloth about social issues like homosexual marriage and abortion yet only 51% of their members can get the gumption to vote against it?

Tells me average Catholic isn't too in tune with Rome.

I ain't Catholic, don't have that issue politically. My church is probably 95% conservative. My issue in my denomination would be stupid preachers asking for money on TV and angering me but in this dissonance between Rome and her flock.

I'm with Rome and they need to crack that whip....or really clean their herd. Pelosi should not even be allowed in much less kneel at the altar unless she is formally repenting.

One thing I did notice growing up in Dixie where most old bloods were Protestant except the Creoles was that my Irish and Polish and Italian and Leb Syrian Catholic pals could get away with more and get forgiven easier an option we did not have ...no question fire and brimstones had it's effect...that and shame instead of guilt but...those nuns would sure light em up...the Gloriosos, Avalonis, Saiks, Iupes, Simons, Reillys, Supernovich, Necaise...etc ..were all terrified of their nuns...they wore big stern habits in those days too

24 posted on 09/29/2012 11:18:55 AM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: Little Bill
Three polls to watch, Mason Dixon, Battle Ground, and Ras.

I agree. I would also add Gallup, but only once it gets within two weeks of election day.

25 posted on 09/29/2012 12:35:56 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: faucetman
Unfortunately, national polls mean nothing. Surveys stipulating accurate results in battleground states (such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc.) are absolutely key to the Presidential campaigns. Unfortunately, those states and other key ones such as Colorado, North Carolina, etc., are all in Obama's column as of now. Until that changes, Romney is toast.

Thus:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

26 posted on 09/29/2012 12:48:44 PM PDT by vox_freedom (America is being tested as never before in its history. May God help us.)
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To: vox_freedom

Obviously true on election day, but at this point, not all that important.

Romney is behind right now. He needs a shift in momentum in the worst way. If and when he gets it, it will show up in the national polls first because they are conducted the most often.

The “swing state” polls won’t reflect it until later mainly because they are conducted far less frequently. As the national polls shift (if they do), the swing state polls will shift as well. You just won’t notice it for a while.

That is why focusing on them at this stage in the game, isn’t worth a whole lot.


27 posted on 09/29/2012 1:01:03 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: vox_freedom

Hard data we are tracking in Ohio - the absentee ballot requests per county - are looking exceptionally good for Republicans. If the trend continues in both Republican and Democrat dominated states, that map of Ohio will not be blue.

Search for posts of FReepers: Revi, LS, LDSentinal to keep up-to-date with this.

The data is also being analyzed at Redstate (by Moe Lane), and Hugh Hewitt


28 posted on 09/29/2012 1:09:33 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: vox_freedom

Obama is not winning North Carolina. It’s not even a swing state anymore. Anybody still pushing that is trying to demoralize voters.


29 posted on 09/29/2012 1:18:21 PM PDT by Shadow44
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To: Shadow44

I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.


30 posted on 09/29/2012 1:49:06 PM PDT by robowombat
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To: faucetman
"In our latest Politico/GWU Battleground Poll with middle class families, which comprise about fifty-four percent (54%) of the total American Electorate and usually split in their vote behavior between Republicans and Democrats, Romney holds a fourteen-point advantage (55%-41%).

See ya at the polls commies!

Photobucket

31 posted on 09/29/2012 3:21:50 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: vox_freedom

Your “User generated map” is way off. Obama is taking North Carolina too? Don’t be ridiculous.


32 posted on 09/29/2012 3:28:31 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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To: vox_freedom

“Unfortunately, national polls mean nothing.”

You lost me with this first sentence. People who dismiss national polls simply don’t pay close enough attention to history. An ACCURATE national poll (such as Rasmussen) is very meaningful, because there is little chance that one candidate wins the national popular vote and loses the election. Yes, it happened in 2000, but that was a case where things were breaking in both directions.

Bush was leading, but Gore was quickly making up ground after the Bush DUI came out the weekend prior to the election. This COULD happen again, but it’s very rare.

Usually, the majority of the electorate breaks one way or another. Meaning, if for example, most undecideds break for the challenger (which generally happens during a bad economy) and Romney ends up at 52% or 53% nationally — Ohio, FL, VA, CO, certainly NC, and most likely either or both of IA and NV will fall his way as well.


33 posted on 09/29/2012 3:45:44 PM PDT by lquist1
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To: faucetman
When they got to Ed Goaz (The Republican half of The Battleground Poll), he said (I don't remember the exact amount) something like 40 or more House seats. Everyone else on the panel burst into laughter...I saw that presentation - Goaz himself was doubting his own figures if I remember correctly - very reliable polling group......
34 posted on 09/29/2012 4:10:48 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
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To: robowombat

“I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.”

Agreed.
But this one isn’t:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

The numbers look better for Romney than on the map in post #26 — but they’re still not all that good, especially in Ohio and Virginia and Florida. Romeny isn’t winning without at least two of those, and one MUST be Florida.

When are his numbers going to start changing?


35 posted on 09/29/2012 4:21:55 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: robowombat

“I caught that also. This map is rat propaganda.”

Agreed.
But this one isn’t:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

The numbers look better for Romney than on the map in post #26 — but they’re still not all that good, especially in Ohio and Virginia and Florida. Romeny isn’t winning without at least two of those, and one MUST be Florida.

When are his numbers going to start changing?


36 posted on 09/29/2012 4:21:55 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Road Glide
When are his numbers going to start changing?

Probably the last week before the election. See tagline.

37 posted on 09/29/2012 5:06:15 PM PDT by Mr. Silverback (Reagan @ only 39/Mondale +5/Dukakis +17/McCain +3...panic is unwarranted. So is complacency.)
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To: lquist1
“Unfortunately, national polls mean nothing.”

As it pertains to the Presidential election this is true and you concede, and it is the electoral college that determines who is elected, not national polling data 39 days ahead of November 6th.

BTW, I don't see only one poll that shows that Romney is winning in North Carolina. Rasmussen. Now I like Rasmussen, but it is only one out of seven that show him ahead there as of today.

38 posted on 09/29/2012 5:33:33 PM PDT by vox_freedom (America is being tested as never before in its history. May God help us.)
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To: 1035rep

“Ridiculous” is thinking that Romney is ahead in either electoral votes or national polls at this point. Oh, and I didn’t generate the map.


39 posted on 09/29/2012 5:37:17 PM PDT by vox_freedom (America is being tested as never before in its history. May God help us.)
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To: wardaddy

“A church that is unequivocally of the cloth about social issues like homosexual marriage and abortion yet only 51% of their members can get the gumption to vote against it?”

51% of catholics dont have the gumption to go to church on sunday. they are CINOs. and another slice are the minority 47%ers.

If Romney wins 51% of catholic he wins the election.


40 posted on 09/29/2012 11:12:55 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: WOSG
That is not statistically true but a nice gesture see chart at top of thread....circles indicate loser...and several are over 50%

Catholics are at most 25% of electorate

Whites are around 72-74%

If Romney only gets 51% of white vote he loses

The Catholic vote is as overrated as the Jewish vote

He can get 80% and its only 16% or so of the electorate

What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help

Instead about half or more vote like Disciples of Christ or Episcopalians

Too many just go through the motions with little faith or belief in Gods rules on behavior and consequence.....which is frankly rather more forgiving than my own sterner faith

I liked that last Pope.....not sure of the answer for the Catholic church

Issue with my own denomination is the opposite....clergy likely becoming more PC than the congregants.....ie recent SBC race groveling in Nashville

No denomination is perfect and only a few serious remain

41 posted on 09/29/2012 11:41:37 PM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: WOSG
That is not statistically true but a nice gesture see chart at top of thread....circles indicate loser...and several are over 50%

Catholics are at most 25% of electorate

Whites are around 72-74%

If Romney only gets 51% of white vote he loses

The Catholic vote is as overrated as the Jewish vote

He can get 80% and its only 16% or so of the electorate

What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help

Instead about half or more vote like Disciples of Christ or Episcopalians

Too many just go through the motions with little faith or belief in Gods rules on behavior and consequence.....which is frankly rather more forgiving than my own sterner faith

I liked that last Pope.....not sure of the answer for the Catholic church

Issue with my own denomination is the opposite....clergy likely becoming more PC than the congregants.....ie recent SBC race groveling in Nashville

No denomination is perfect and only a few serious remain

42 posted on 09/29/2012 11:42:18 PM PDT by wardaddy (this is a perfect window for Netanyahu to bomb Iran..I hereby give my go ahead..thanks Muzzie idiots)
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To: faucetman

AND add in Gallup’s 16 point Republican enthusiasm lead!


43 posted on 09/30/2012 3:25:23 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: wardaddy

Catholics, at 25% of the electorate, and not all white (think how many hispanic Catholics there are), are a ‘swing electorate’, they are not in GOP camp like white evangelicals.
They are not all church-going, and those who do are prolife but not all conservative.

So given all those headwinds, a 51% vote for Romney would be a good sign pointing towards the kind of victory Bush had in 2004 when he won that slice of catholic voters.

I stand by my statement.

“What pisses me off is that if Catholics voted like they are taught and truly believed it would help....a lot...not a guarantee but would help”

half of catholics dont even attend church regularly, and those are the ones more Democrat in their voting pattern. So are you more pissed about non-church-going catholics missing Mass or voting Obama? Just like non-devout Jews or ‘anyones’, if their real religion is Liberalism, its a lost cause unless we can deprogram their belief in liberal myths.

I’ve seen low SBC support for Romney in polls. you can fix that better than fixing fallen catholics. you need to tell your brethren to put their anti-mormonism aside at the polling booth and vote to save the country.


44 posted on 09/30/2012 8:56:53 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: wardaddy

Nice chart.

12 out of 16 times, Catholics ‘picked’ the winner.
This is a classic swing electorate. If you look at 1948 and the 1960s, they were more Democrat-leaning, they have shifted to being swing voters over time.


45 posted on 09/30/2012 9:04:10 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: WOSG
You have no idea what you are talking about

Typical Yankee hypocrisy and hubris

Lecturing a southern baptist about GOP turnout while ignoring that frequently over half of your own kind vote pro abort

I just left Thompson Station Baptist and our preacher lectured hard about the election and our culture

Many joined the 40 day prayer and fast commitment today just for this election

The stats on both denominations voting wise are obvious your canards notwithstanding

Catholics are simply more liberal than hardline Prods as a rule..there is denying that....why some Catholics here deny that ans act so chauvinist otherwise is just a reflection of larger older resentments

I for one have never thought southern baptists were the only true path

46 posted on 09/30/2012 11:37:33 AM PDT by wardaddy (my wife prays in the tanning bed....guess what region i live in)
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To: wardaddy
Romney has 51% if Catholics in this poll...not all that inspiring to be frank

Catholics normally are a solid Democrat voting base. If you don't think Romney winning the Catholic vote is inspiring, you are looking for excuse to not be inspired.

47 posted on 09/30/2012 12:49:01 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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To: wardaddy

“Catholics are simply more liberal than hardline Prods as a rule..there is denying that....why some Catholics here deny ..”

I dunno, I never denied that catholics are a swing vote and explained WHY. I am well aware of liberals in the catholic church, but you may not be aware of the church’s highlighting ‘religious liberty’ this year and explicitly denouncing Obama administrations rules in HHS. Some have gone further:
http://www.examiner.com/article/catholic-bishop-claims-democrats-support-evil-will-go-to-hell
Catholic Bishop claims Democrats support evil, will go to hell

One article put it this way:

““That either shows that the more practicing you are, the more pro-Romney (or anti-Obama) you are,” Allen said in an e-mail message, “or it says something about the political message Catholics are getting in their parishes these days.””

SO why are you being a jerk about it and calling me names? We agree.

As is typical when jerks get their dander up, they make a bunch of rash assumptions. You might to check where I actually live. Hubris indeed!


48 posted on 09/30/2012 12:56:00 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: faucetman
This is why I take the Republican half (Ed Goaz) of this poll as gospel. He has continued to be accurate.

Ed Goeas was one of my mentors in 1993-1994 working with Empower America. IMO, one of the most thoughtful and insightful pollsters of our day.

49 posted on 09/30/2012 12:56:44 PM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
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To: faucetman

50 posted on 09/30/2012 2:24:53 PM PDT by Impala64ssa (You call me an islamophobe like it's a bad thing.)
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