Posted on 10/01/2012 7:23:15 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Today the Romney campaign is trumpeting the latest CNN/ORC poll which shows President Obama with a three-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, 50%-47%. The Romney campaign likes this result, apparently, because it represents a significant improvement over the last CNN/ORC poll, which came out three weeks ago. In that survey, CNN/ORC found a six-point Obama lead.
I wrote about the earlier poll here, pointing out that it obviously over-sampled Democrats. A reader calculated that, given other data in the survey, the six-point difference was consistent with a breakdown of D-38%, R-26% and I-36%. I wrote that the most significant point in the CNN poll results was that independents favored Romney over Obama by a remarkable 14 points.
So today’s CNN/ORC poll has Obama’s lead cut in half, to three points. Does that mean that Romney is surging? Not really. It means they didn’t call quite as many Democrats. This time, the pollsters gave us the partisan breakdown of their sample: D-37%, R-29% and I-34%. So when the partisan gap in the sample narrowed from D +12 to D +8, Romney did three points better. Well, yeah.
Is either of these sample compositions plausible as a representation of the 2012 electorate? Plainly not. Currently, Scott Rasmussen finds that more voters identify themselves as Republicans than Democrats, and all surveys report that intensity is at least as high among Republicans as among Democrats this year. So who could possibly believe that there will be 8% more Democrats than Republicans at the polls in November?
Polls like the ones conducted by CNN and ORC are useful primarily as an indicator of which party’s members are more likely to answer their telephones when they are called by strangers.
yes ???
how about just plain stupid to say unless the security guarantees a closed room ??? when the cool kids clique starts badmouthin the cheese and cracker crowd, always wise to make sure a 'meat & taters' type doesnt overhear ya and give you a swirlly...or worse...
Every kid in school today has a high quality cam-corder in their pocket, DUH.
I have in the past posted many comments and a blog post or two about the dangers those who pay no income taxes, then here comes MR and f,,s it up.
Then we are told that he made a brave and moral and true point on this secretly recorded tape, as if they just found the last book of Moses that the evil MSM is trying to destroy.
This is a great Koolaid example.
Exactly! The reason I asked the question was that some are going to argue that Romney's 47% comment was at least partly accurate (but some who pay no income tax probably considered voting for R, until they heard what R said). I think it is obvious that even if R had been 100% factually correct, it was dumb to utter it in public. Sharron Angle again.
That was my immediate conclusion.
Sharon Angle running for NV Senator said on tape “The unemployed are soft getting unemployment comp” in the state with the highest unemployment rate in the country.
She insulted a huge block of voters many she needed (or friends and relatives) who lost their jobs due to things that happened that was no fault of theirs.
She lost her race.
She convinced no-one of anything, except that she was a nut. Completely counterproductive.
Those make make such a claim either didn't know that R ran away from the 47% remark after it became public, or maybe they are going to make the even more preposterous argument that R did not really mean it when he admitted that he made a mistake (as they have claimed about statements from previous GOP heroes).
part and parcel in the defense of a lesser of evil candidate...as long as a lie is for the right reasons, its ok...kind of like the doctrine of tiqya [sp] for muzzes...
dont try to explain how non-sensical that defense appears to be...logic and reason have no place in an emotional [fear] based argument...
I don’t think this thing is as big a deal as we are making it. In other news....the unemployment rate was lowered by Chicago : )
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