Skip to comments.Intrade; Will Romney Get A Bounce?
Posted on 10/04/2012 12:27:54 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
Here's the shares percentage on Intrade for Obama and Romney PRIOR to their 1st Presidential Debate:
(Excerpt) Read more at intrade.com ...
Sorry but Intrade is a joke this far out from an election. I’ve been on this site long enough to witness a few election cycles and I’ve seen Intrade go from someone winning to someone losing in just a matter of a couple of hours on election day. Some insider will report on exit polling, and it’ll favor a dem, and BAM intrade goes wild for that dem, then when the polls close in the evening and actual results start rolling in and it’s not looking good for the dem, then BAM Intrade flips for the pubbie.
I don’t know it’s just me but they seem very wishy washy depending on the news cycle.
Makes sense. I don’t have a dog in this fight (Intrade-wise) but find it interesting. I won’t put much ‘stock’ in it, so to speak. It’s just fun but problematic if people use it to drive their decision. There’s no hope for those kinds of people anyway.
I’m predicting what the betting markets still show - Obama will be re-elected.
When people put up their money, its a far more accurate predictor of their real-world preferences.
Unless the markets do a catastrophic run on Obama Intrade stock, I think people’s money is quite safe.
The only way I can see him losing is if his campaign melts down. One bad debate night does not an Obama debacle make.
Then again I hate to spoil the party atmosphere but I follow the old, true and trite adage - “follow the money.”
I’m thinking, in normal situations, Intrade would be a reasonable predictor. However, Obama is doing so badly, regardless of the measurement, that Intrade should not be showing him in such a favourable position, unless somebody has spent a quite a few bucks manipulating the numbers.
I’m thinking along the lines that somebody is going to be selling Obama shares very soon and making a profit.
Could be amusing as a way to relieve some DUmmies of excess wealth.
You might want to factor in that REAL possibility that 0bama’s minions and various organizations (NOT the general public at large) are buying shares to prop him up on Intrade. You wouldn’t put it past these thugs, would you? George Soros has Billions $$$ to burn..
On 7 November, from Alaska to Florida, from the Pacific to the Atlantic, the map will be red.
I have been following the offhore betting odds very closely, and they have been taking a dramatic turn in the last 72 hours. Not long ago you could get 4.5 to 1 on Romney. Right now that figure is 1.9 to one on a Romney win. Now you say that almost 2 to 1 is still overwhelmeing odds for Obama. Well, if you know anything about gambling you’ll know that this swing is huge on an event with only 2 outcome possiblities. The amount of money bet on Romney in the last 3 days would have to be enourmous to move those odds. One site, SPORTSBOOK.com has taken down all of the state races that were there just 24 hours ago. You could actually bet on most of the swing states, Iowa, Colorado for example. They have pulled all of those bets down after the debate. It’s amazing
My feeling is that Romney helped himself tonight, but he’s still got work to do. I want to believe the polls are all screwy, but realistically I can’t hang my hat on that. So, I’m going on the assumption that Obama is still leading, but still also beatable.
Basically, I think Romney put a stop to the inevitability mantra (for the moment), energized the base, and won a second chance to win tonight. Now he has to find a way to take advantage of that chance.
Intrade is the tiny, dumb money that simply mimics/follows all the junk polls.
The really big, smart money are the stock and bond markets. And last night, the S&P futures jumped 7 points in response to Romney's debate performance.
Ever since the Romney “47%” video, InTrade has shown a steep rise in the Zer0’s “value”. Only in the last few days has Romney bottomed out and started to climb again. The problem I have is that I wonder if someone isn’t pulling a pump-and-dump on Obama shares, playing on Dem money to follow the polls. I noted that there’s a huge selloff of Obama shares waiting at 9.99% (just shy of the contract paying), which leads me to think someone would like it to look an awful lot like the Zer0 will take it (not too close to the election) only to have the share price plummet when it gets high enough for that 1000-share holder to cash out.
I suspect Romney will see a significant climb-out as a result of the debate, probably at least back into the mid-30s (he was down to 22% at one point). However, if Zer0 is even half the Chicago politician everyone thinks he is, the next debate will be brutal on Romney, as will the campaign ads against Romney.
Also, post-debate, Romney is only 1% higher, though things may liven up over the next few hours as people start getting up in the morning there in the US.
"Reasonable" meaning accurate news and poll results? Keep in mind that most of those traders probably work for a living and can only rely on the info given them by the MSM.
They don't have the advantage of listening to conservative radio and hanging out on FR all day like we do............LOL!
I respectfully disagree. Foreign affairs unless it’s guy on guy aren’t Obama’s strong suit.
Intrade had Scott Brown trailing big like 48 hours before the election. They have Wis solid blue. If i was a gambling man i’d be hitting bids all over the place.
No, but the way it works is that everybody makes their trades, based on the bits of information that they know. They accumulation of those trades is an accurate barometer as to what the public really thinks.
And it does work, in most cases, but it is my suspicion that somebody is deliberately pumping Obama on Intrade, possibly to either cash in or to help get him elected by making it seem like he’s the stronger horse.
Intrade is a scam and illegal in this country !
It’s a off shore (Ireland) based operation with no controls or checks in place .
It’s made of foreigners and crooks .
Do not get involved in it !
Obama bottomed out at 61% earlier. He’s already on his way back up.