Posted on 10/10/2012 5:42:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
So where are we, four weeks out? Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls, making liberals panicked and conservatives jubilant -- an interesting change of pace.
But I actually see more continuity than change here. And allow me to quote one pollster who has had a solid read on the true state of the race for months (he is also the only pollster who had an accurate read on Obama-McCain from the Lehman collapse onward, and the first to see the 2010 wipeout coming before anybody else).
[SNIP]
We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other.
I think this is spot on. In fact, I would suggest five enduring truths about this election, all consistent with Rasmussen’s polling data.
[SNIP [SNIP]
But make no mistake: what we have here is a very close race in an evenly divided nation. Both sides should lock down 47 percent, and it will be a fight to the finish for the tiny sliver of the electorate that is truly up for grabs.
(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...
In short, 94% of the electorate have more or less made up their minds.
It is the 6% who are still undecided who will determine the victor.
Question: Historically, who do the undecideds break for?
their wallets...
Now, folks, given R enthusiasm (which almost everyone except the bogus PPP says is higher than Ds) this translates to a 4-5% national lead, but in the electoral college this is a massive lead, because it would throw to Romney OH, IA, WI, NV, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH, and possibly MI.
Moreover, I think this so-called "close" race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the "invincible" Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney.
It is the 6% who are still undecided who will determine the victor.
Basically, exactly what Romney said in that secretly filmed "47%" video that the media made such a big deal about. Romney was right.
According to someone (Dick Morris, I think) the “undecideds” tend to go 7-to-1 for the challenger.
” Moreover, I think this so-called “close” race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the “invincible” Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney. “
Makes total sense.
This won’t be close. The bubble has burst for The Disaster. His abysmal performance woke a lot of people up.
I think this Libya thing will get legs. It will be the excuse the MSM will need to turn on the Obozo. Suddenly we will “discover” Fast and Furious, etc.
...Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls... But I actually see more continuity than change here. And allow me to quote one pollster who has had a solid read on the true state of the race for months (he is also the only pollster who had an accurate read on Obama-McCain from the Lehman collapse onward, and the first to see the 2010 wipeout coming before anybody else)... A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months... Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other... Both sides should lock down 47 percent, and it will be a fight to the finish for the tiny sliver of the electorate that is truly up for grabs.
Will Hillary throw Obama to the wolfs? Someone knows the truth about Obama and who he really is.
Will Hillary throw Obama to the wolves? Someone knows the truth about Obama and who he really is.
Jay Cost comes on the Lee Davis show in Birmingham Alabama about once a week. A very smart and entertaining guy to listen to.
Agreed!!
Agreed!!
Don’t see any way, based on some other articles and polling, that Obama gets to 47. Some have him at 41, some even say he won’t break 40. Maybe that’s wishful thinking but have seen the case made.
Scary part is that some 47% of the electorate would vote to re-elect this guy. Rush said the U.S. could survive a second Obama term, but not an electorate that would re-elect him.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.