On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray

Original Accountability :) | Oct 19, 2012 | By Laz A. Mataz

[Lazamataz]

It's time for me to pay the piper.

It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.

In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:

1. I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
2. I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
3. I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
4. I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.

But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.

And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.

[Lazamataz]

The Official Lazamataz Being-Contrite-When-He-Is-Wrong Ping List
153 Less-Than-Satisfied Customers!™

[Revolting cat!]

[Lazamataz]

You hate me! You really, really, hate me!

[Cyber Liberty]

Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.

[Jeff Chandler]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.

[Jet Jaguar]

If you predicted it, and they read it, they would have to change plans.

Nobody wants to be predictable, especially by LAZ.

[kevao]

Read more; post less.

[Lazamataz]

Wow! Good point.

One thing is important to me: I will not be a Dick Morris-type. Morris makes predictions, then when he is wrong, he ignores it and moves to the next one. I feel that is wrong. I feel you should remain accountable and either: A) Stop predicting, or B) Get better at it.

Right now I'm doing the accountable part. I simply won't ignore my misses and move on. That would do a disservice to all of YOU.

[Revolting cat!]

[berdie]

This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

I have been using my crystal ball for putting practice. ;)

[TexasTransplant]

I flipped a coin... You Won... keep me on your ping list

TT

[Spktyr]

Have you considered upgrading to the new iCrystal? :P

[Revolting cat!]

Go ahead, perdict a October surprise. You can’t miss!

[Lazamataz]

Read more; post less.

THAT, I won't be doing. I already read a *lot* -- but I won't be posting less.

[Republican1795.]

Well I was right about how Obama would overdo it & try to be more hoped up than the previous debate telecast.

[Southack]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2431782/posts?page=61#61

[Lazamataz]

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.

Yes sir. I do.

[chriscraft]

Take solace in the fact that the Rage Monkey is always 100% correct!

[Jeff Chandler]

; )

[Lazamataz]

Now the RAGE MONKEY, I stand behind THAT work ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!!! :)

[Lazamataz]

Give me credit though: Not only won’t I ignore my misses, I actually pointed them out. That’s probably different among editorial types.

[Lazamataz]

Bottom line: I am probably still a work-in-progress, as an editorialist.

[Revolting cat!]

Dude, rest assured that after November 6, whatever happens, nobody around here will be willing to eat Crow, and you probably remember all the wild predictions that have been made on these pages over the last 6 months, why, over the last 6 minutes!

[PA Engineer]

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect.

I am leaning towards the Libya fiasco as the failed wag the dog attempt. The blind sheik is still in jail here and four good men lost their lives.

[Tex-Con-Man]

I knew you were going to say that...

[Lazamataz]

Dude, rest assured that after November 6, whatever happens, nobody around here will be willing to eat Crow, and you probably remember all the wild predictions that have been made on these pages over the last 6 months, why, over the last 6 minutes!

True, FRiend, but I can't in good conscience walk away from mine, when I am dead-ass-wrong. That's being like Dick Morris.

The self-accountability will help my credibility in the long run; it will make me feel less like a 'cheat'; and it will remind me to strive to be better at this craft.

[piytar]

You admitted to being wrong?! You’ll never make it in politics or the MSM.

/joke

Well done. You have that (sadly) rare quality called integrity. All joking aside, it will serve you well.

[Lazamataz]

I am leaning towards the Libya fiasco as the failed wag the dog attempt. The blind sheik is still in jail here and four good men lost their lives

Now this is a reasonable conjecture. In this, one of the predictions that failed, it could have been that there was the attempt -- and the attempt failed -- to Wag the Dog.

It could very well have been. Unfortunately, since we are without accurate information, it would be hard to prove.

Therefore I must assume that my prediction was simply wrong, until I can prove otherwise.

[meadsjn]

Well, I've predicted Romney will win by 59% to 39%.

If he wins by 65% instead, I'm not apologizing to anyone.

[Snuph]

With respect to Iran, you may have gotten the timing wrong. We, The US Navy, will have, count them, 3 Aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran next week. There are also several reports in the middle east and now on WND that the Iranians have agreed to stop enrichment “temporarily” if the US will drop all sanctions. The word is Zero has agreed and the Iranians are awaiting his official declaration.

Thus, you may still be correct in a sense.

[Revolting cat!]

[Lazamataz]

I had predicted I never was going to write this. :)

[Marcella]

For more accurate predictions, perhaps you need a “Ouija Board Glow-in-the-Dark $22.89” at Amazon.

[doorgunner69]

I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

You may be more correct with this than you think. I have to admit to a low tolerance for anything to do with Zero, so I did not and will not watch the episode where Romney brings up F&F, only to have Zero shriek out "Candy!" and have the fat hog waddle to the rescue.

That may qualify for changing the subject, even if he did have the sweat-hog do it for him.

[Lazamataz]

Well done. You have that (sadly) rare quality called integrity. All joking aside, it will serve you well.

Thanks. I suppose it does this: If I am willing to admit when I am wrong, it gives greater weight and 'gravitas' to the times when I stand resolutely by an assertion.

[kevao]

With binders full of failed predictions, your skills are not optimal.

[cardinal4]

If I may predict a few times on your prediction thread..?
Romney wins big enough to be declared the winner by midnight eastern..
At least one poster will agree.
Many will not.
At least one will declare he/she is not voting for Romney.
At least one post regarding vote fraud.
Much snark.

How am I doing?

[Lazamataz]

With respect to Iran, you may have gotten the timing wrong. We, The US Navy, will have, count them, 3 Aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran next week. There are also several reports in the middle east and now on WND that the Iranians have agreed to stop enrichment “temporarily” if the US will drop all sanctions. The word is Zero has agreed and the Iranians are awaiting his official declaration.

If in time the Wag the Dog prediction is realized -- but at a much later date then I imagined -- then this speaks to the pure incompetence of this Administration. Rally-Round-the-Flag poll bounces peak at the two month mark. To do so at this time would only hurt him with his base, and fool no one else.

But maybe I underestimated OTrauma's sheer incompetence.

[Cyber Liberty]

Giving up would be a disservice, so you must do the alternative. Get better. On balance, your prognostication score of 65 is better than most of the “pros” out there. And a lot more entertaining.

[Lazamataz]

With binders full of failed predictions, your skills are not optimal.

It's a bump in the road.

[The Citizen Soldier]

Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.

Oh, ...he'll hit it!

[Lazamataz]

Awh. Thanks pal. Whatever the result, I did need to come clean and not sweep the 'fails' under the rug, like the pro's so often do.

I just can't be like those guys, when it comes to this.

[Lazamataz]

If I may predict a few times on your prediction thread..? Romney wins big enough to be declared the winner by midnight eastern.. At least one poster will agree. Many will not. At least one will declare he/she is not voting for Romney. At least one post regarding vote fraud. Much snark.

I agree with your prediction, but at the same time, I do not. That is because I cannot vote for Romney. What's the point, there's so much Democrat voter fraud?

;)

[Lazamataz]

This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

True that! The normal rules don't seem to apply!

[cardinal4]

FAIL: you didn’t snark!

[Lazamataz]

I predicted you'd notice that.

I'm getting better at predicting already.

[Snuph]

I am simply pointing out that both options are currently being discussed in non US media.

The “deal” to stop enrichment would not actually be done. Rather simply announced right before the last debate. No time for anyone to prepare or to authenticate before the debate nor the election. This requires Tehran’s complicity. Something they would do for free rather than face a Romney Presidency. However, I am of the opinion Zero will give them whatever they wish for the public assistance.

If they do not go with his plan, then the military option is ready to be used.

This is the opinion making waves in the middle east and to some extent in Europe.

Thought I would pass it along.

Snuph

[Lazamataz]

Appreciate you posting it. :)