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On Being Accountable: When Predictions Go Astray
Original Accountability :) | Oct 19, 2012 | By Laz A. Mataz

Posted on 10/18/2012 10:24:51 PM PDT by Lazamataz

It's time for me to pay the piper.

It has been observed that the best editorial work keeps the author out of the opinion, and speaks only to the issues of the day. It will be impossible for me to do this, in this editorial, because I must address my own predictions. You see, I've made a series of predictions, of which only a handful seem to have been realized. It's time to hold myself accountable.

In this article, "HEY MITT! Expect, From Obama, These Four Things At the Debate Tonight!(October 16, 2012)", I tell Mitt to expect four things. Let's score them:

  1. I tell Mitt Romney to expect numerous and flagrant violation of the Debate rules. On this prediction, I was one-hundred-percent accurate. Obama was quite eager to speak over his time limits, to interrupt whenever possible, and otherwise disregard the format. Mitt Romney was wonderfully prepared for this, and scored repeatedly and brilliantly with his terse rejoinders.
  2. I tell Mitt Romney to expect Obama to overwhelm Mitt with accusations, many brand new, and all certifiably false. This one must also be scored as accurate.
  3. I tell the team to expect the Obama Middle Finger gesture. Surprisingly, the finger never materalized, not even once. This was a failed prediction.
  4. I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.
So in this article, I was accurate to about a 65% level.... which is not much better than a coin toss.

In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect. In this prediction, at least to-date, my bold prediction was boldly wrong. It can still happen, but the effect would be minimal in assisting Obama, since it would be too obvious it was a political act.

I think it's clear my crystal ball is not working. I owe an amend to you all, and I should stay out of the prognosticating business. Policy analysis and essays on events that have already occurred are reasonable topics.

But other than that, I boldly predict I will not make predictions of how the future will unfold in the realm of politics.

And given my track record with inferring the future, we can probably expect me to write a predictive editorial or two after all.


TOPICS: FReeper Editorial; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: allisvanity; notnews; vanity
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1 posted on 10/18/2012 10:24:56 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: TheOldLady; Cyber Liberty; CatherineofAragon; Slings and Arrows; Responsibility2nd; doorgunner69; ..
The Official Lazamataz Being-Contrite-When-He-Is-Wrong Ping List
153 Less-Than-Satisfied Customers!™

2 posted on 10/18/2012 10:27:03 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

3 posted on 10/18/2012 10:30:36 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Revolting cat!

You hate me! You really, really, hate me!

4 posted on 10/18/2012 10:33:16 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.


5 posted on 10/18/2012 10:34:42 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: Lazamataz

Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.


6 posted on 10/18/2012 10:36:27 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (To bid on this tagline space: www.jeffchandlerstaglinespace.com)
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To: Lazamataz

If you predicted it, and they read it, they would have to change plans.

Nobody wants to be predictable, especially by LAZ.


7 posted on 10/18/2012 10:37:00 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: Lazamataz

Read more; post less.


8 posted on 10/18/2012 10:37:29 PM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: Cyber Liberty
Wow! Good point.

One thing is important to me: I will not be a Dick Morris-type. Morris makes predictions, then when he is wrong, he ignores it and moves to the next one. I feel that is wrong. I feel you should remain accountable and either: A) Stop predicting, or B) Get better at it.

Right now I'm doing the accountable part. I simply won't ignore my misses and move on. That would do a disservice to all of YOU.

9 posted on 10/18/2012 10:37:56 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

10 posted on 10/18/2012 10:37:56 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Lazamataz

This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

I have been using my crystal ball for putting practice. ;)


11 posted on 10/18/2012 10:38:11 PM PDT by berdie
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To: Lazamataz

I flipped a coin... You Won... keep me on your ping list

TT


12 posted on 10/18/2012 10:38:31 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (Radical islam is islam. Moderate islam is the Trojan Horse.)
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To: Lazamataz

Have you considered upgrading to the new iCrystal? :P


13 posted on 10/18/2012 10:39:07 PM PDT by Spktyr (Overwhelmingly superior firepower and the willingness to use it is the only proven peace solution.)
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To: Lazamataz

Go ahead, perdict a October surprise. You can’t miss!


14 posted on 10/18/2012 10:39:19 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: kevao
Read more; post less.

THAT, I won't be doing. I already read a *lot* -- but I won't be posting less.

15 posted on 10/18/2012 10:39:19 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

Well I was right about how Obama would overdo it & try to be more hoped up than the previous debate telecast.


16 posted on 10/18/2012 10:39:19 PM PDT by Republican1795.
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To: Lazamataz

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2431782/posts?page=61#61


17 posted on 10/18/2012 10:39:43 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: Jeff Chandler
Not to put too fine a point on it, but as a prognosticator, you suck.

Yes sir. I do.

18 posted on 10/18/2012 10:40:44 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

Take solace in the fact that the Rage Monkey is always 100% correct!


19 posted on 10/18/2012 10:42:34 PM PDT by chriscraft
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To: Lazamataz

; )


20 posted on 10/18/2012 10:43:20 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (To bid on this tagline space: www.jeffchandlerstaglinespace.com)
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To: chriscraft; Southack

Now the RAGE MONKEY, I stand behind THAT work ONE HUNDRED PERCENT!!! :)


21 posted on 10/18/2012 10:43:41 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Jeff Chandler

Give me credit though: Not only won’t I ignore my misses, I actually pointed them out. That’s probably different among editorial types.


22 posted on 10/18/2012 10:44:51 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Jeff Chandler

Bottom line: I am probably still a work-in-progress, as an editorialist.


23 posted on 10/18/2012 10:45:45 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz
Dude, rest assured that after November 6, whatever happens, nobody around here will be willing to eat Crow, and you probably remember all the wild predictions that have been made on these pages over the last 6 months, why, over the last 6 minutes!


24 posted on 10/18/2012 10:47:07 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Lazamataz
In another article, I boldly predicted a military strike on Iran or Libya no later than October 15th. This 'wag the dog' scenario would be intended to garner the Rally Round the Flag effect.

I am leaning towards the Libya fiasco as the failed wag the dog attempt. The blind sheik is still in jail here and four good men lost their lives.
25 posted on 10/18/2012 10:47:59 PM PDT by PA Engineer (Liberate America from the Occupation Media.)
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To: Lazamataz

I knew you were going to say that...


26 posted on 10/18/2012 10:49:13 PM PDT by Tex-Con-Man (Muppet season now open - no bag limit)
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To: Revolting cat!
Dude, rest assured that after November 6, whatever happens, nobody around here will be willing to eat Crow, and you probably remember all the wild predictions that have been made on these pages over the last 6 months, why, over the last 6 minutes!

True, FRiend, but I can't in good conscience walk away from mine, when I am dead-ass-wrong. That's being like Dick Morris.

The self-accountability will help my credibility in the long run; it will make me feel less like a 'cheat'; and it will remind me to strive to be better at this craft.

27 posted on 10/18/2012 10:50:29 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

You admitted to being wrong?! You’ll never make it in politics or the MSM.

/joke

Well done. You have that (sadly) rare quality called integrity. All joking aside, it will serve you well.


28 posted on 10/18/2012 10:53:37 PM PDT by piytar (The predator-class is furious that their prey are shooting back.)
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To: PA Engineer; Southack
I am leaning towards the Libya fiasco as the failed wag the dog attempt. The blind sheik is still in jail here and four good men lost their lives

Now this is a reasonable conjecture. In this, one of the predictions that failed, it could have been that there was the attempt -- and the attempt failed -- to Wag the Dog.

It could very well have been. Unfortunately, since we are without accurate information, it would be hard to prove.

Therefore I must assume that my prediction was simply wrong, until I can prove otherwise.

29 posted on 10/18/2012 10:53:59 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz
Well, I've predicted Romney will win by 59% to 39%.

If he wins by 65% instead, I'm not apologizing to anyone.

30 posted on 10/18/2012 10:54:07 PM PDT by meadsjn
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To: Lazamataz

With respect to Iran, you may have gotten the timing wrong. We, The US Navy, will have, count them, 3 Aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran next week. There are also several reports in the middle east and now on WND that the Iranians have agreed to stop enrichment “temporarily” if the US will drop all sanctions. The word is Zero has agreed and the Iranians are awaiting his official declaration.

Thus, you may still be correct in a sense.


31 posted on 10/18/2012 10:54:10 PM PDT by Snuph ("give me Liberty...")
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To: Lazamataz

32 posted on 10/18/2012 10:54:22 PM PDT by Revolting cat! (Bad things are wrong! Ice cream is delicious!)
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To: Tex-Con-Man

I had predicted I never was going to write this. :)


33 posted on 10/18/2012 10:54:57 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

For more accurate predictions, perhaps you need a “Ouija Board Glow-in-the-Dark $22.89” at Amazon.


34 posted on 10/18/2012 10:55:22 PM PDT by Marcella (Republican Conservatism is dead. PREPARE.)
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To: Lazamataz
I advise that Obama will be answering any charge made by Mitt Romney, not with an answer, but an ignoring of the question and the making of numerous counter-charges. I score this one as half-right. Sometimes Obama would defend himself, but always, he would lob numerous counter charges.

You may be more correct with this than you think. I have to admit to a low tolerance for anything to do with Zero, so I did not and will not watch the episode where Romney brings up F&F, only to have Zero shriek out "Candy!" and have the fat hog waddle to the rescue.

That may qualify for changing the subject, even if he did have the sweat-hog do it for him.

35 posted on 10/18/2012 10:56:05 PM PDT by doorgunner69
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Comment #36 Removed by Moderator

To: piytar
Well done. You have that (sadly) rare quality called integrity. All joking aside, it will serve you well.

Thanks. I suppose it does this: If I am willing to admit when I am wrong, it gives greater weight and 'gravitas' to the times when I stand resolutely by an assertion.

37 posted on 10/18/2012 10:56:51 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

With binders full of failed predictions, your skills are not optimal.


38 posted on 10/18/2012 10:58:46 PM PDT by kevao (Is your ocean any lower than it was four years ago?)
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To: Lazamataz

If I may predict a few times on your prediction thread..?
Romney wins big enough to be declared the winner by midnight eastern..
At least one poster will agree.
Many will not.
At least one will declare he/she is not voting for Romney.
At least one post regarding vote fraud.
Much snark.

How am I doing?


39 posted on 10/18/2012 10:59:40 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Barack Hussein Obama, America's 21st century Edsel..)
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To: Snuph
With respect to Iran, you may have gotten the timing wrong. We, The US Navy, will have, count them, 3 Aircraft carriers off the coast of Iran next week. There are also several reports in the middle east and now on WND that the Iranians have agreed to stop enrichment “temporarily” if the US will drop all sanctions. The word is Zero has agreed and the Iranians are awaiting his official declaration.

If in time the Wag the Dog prediction is realized -- but at a much later date then I imagined -- then this speaks to the pure incompetence of this Administration. Rally-Round-the-Flag poll bounces peak at the two month mark. To do so at this time would only hurt him with his base, and fool no one else.

But maybe I underestimated OTrauma's sheer incompetence.

40 posted on 10/18/2012 11:01:13 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

Giving up would be a disservice, so you must do the alternative. Get better. On balance, your prognostication score of 65 is better than most of the “pros” out there. And a lot more entertaining.


41 posted on 10/18/2012 11:01:32 PM PDT by Cyber Liberty (Obama considers the Third World morally superior to the United States.)
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To: kevao
With binders full of failed predictions, your skills are not optimal.

It's a bump in the road.

42 posted on 10/18/2012 11:02:27 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Cyber Liberty
Babe Ruth led the league in strike-outs. You will never hit the long ball if you don’t swing the bat.

Oh, ...he'll hit it!

43 posted on 10/18/2012 11:03:50 PM PDT by The Citizen Soldier (Peace is that brief glorious moment in history when everyone stands around reloading.)
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To: Cyber Liberty
Awh. Thanks pal. Whatever the result, I did need to come clean and not sweep the 'fails' under the rug, like the pro's so often do.

I just can't be like those guys, when it comes to this.

44 posted on 10/18/2012 11:03:58 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: cardinal4
If I may predict a few times on your prediction thread..? Romney wins big enough to be declared the winner by midnight eastern.. At least one poster will agree. Many will not. At least one will declare he/she is not voting for Romney. At least one post regarding vote fraud. Much snark.

I agree with your prediction, but at the same time, I do not. That is because I cannot vote for Romney. What's the point, there's so much Democrat voter fraud?

;)

45 posted on 10/18/2012 11:05:31 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: berdie
This is a pretty unpredictable election season. It’s been a little bit strange.

True that! The normal rules don't seem to apply!

46 posted on 10/18/2012 11:07:04 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

FAIL: you didn’t snark!


47 posted on 10/18/2012 11:07:59 PM PDT by cardinal4 (Barack Hussein Obama, America's 21st century Edsel..)
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To: cardinal4
I predicted you'd notice that.

I'm getting better at predicting already.

48 posted on 10/18/2012 11:08:44 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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To: Lazamataz

I am simply pointing out that both options are currently being discussed in non US media.

The “deal” to stop enrichment would not actually be done. Rather simply announced right before the last debate. No time for anyone to prepare or to authenticate before the debate nor the election. This requires Tehran’s complicity. Something they would do for free rather than face a Romney Presidency. However, I am of the opinion Zero will give them whatever they wish for the public assistance.

If they do not go with his plan, then the military option is ready to be used.

This is the opinion making waves in the middle east and to some extent in Europe.

Thought I would pass it along.

Snuph


49 posted on 10/18/2012 11:12:49 PM PDT by Snuph ("give me Liberty...")
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To: Snuph

Appreciate you posting it. :)


50 posted on 10/18/2012 11:14:02 PM PDT by Lazamataz
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