Skip to comments.Mitt Romney pushes into battle ground states of PA and NH weeks before presidential election
Posted on 10/20/2012 1:34:49 PM PDT by Red Steel
Anxious to find the right combination of states to win the Electoral College, Mitt Romneys campaign pushed Saturday into battlegrounds it had largely avoided.
The Republicans forged into the swing states of Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which the GOP had previously appeared resigned to ceding to President Obama.
Paul Ryan, Romneys running mate, ripped Obamas energy policy to a crowd at the Pittsburgh International Airport.
"Gas prices are more than double what they were four years ago - who knows what they're going to be if he got four more years," Ryan said. "Not only are these policies wrong, they...cost us jobs.
The GOP also bought ad time on Boston television stations, which broadcast into the state directly north.
Though New Hampshire only awards four electoral votes, its importance is magnified if Romney cant win Ohio. A loss in the Buckeye State, where Obama holds a slight lead over Romney, would mean the Republican would need to almost sweep the remaining swing states.
Obama is making his own push into those battlegrounds, announcing that he will launch a two-day, around the clock campaign blitz across six states starting Tuesday.
Air Force One will cover thousands of miles as the President holds events in Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia and Ohio - and makes a stop in Chicago to cast his own ballot early.
Both Obama and Romney remained holed up Saturday preparing for their last debate, to be held Monday on foreign policy.
They will square off in Florida, where Vice President Biden rallied supporters Saturday.
With you, we can take Florida, Biden said in St. Augustine. If we take Florida, this election is over."
Biden also again touted his campaigns new rallying cry - that Romney changes positions so much that he must suffer from chronic Romnesia.
Or, gee, could it be that in fact OH is now swinging their way and they are building a larger electoral majority?
I love the narrative of this report. As if Obama is still in control, and Romney is scrambling to find some EVs. Could not be further from the truth.
Anxious? GOP candidates don’t put money, time and staff into PA when they’re anxious, they do that when they have territory locked up and want to try for more.
Romney expands Electoral Map into PA and NH. Looks for Landslide!
I just don't see where the polls indicate OH is in Romney's column. I'm increasingly thinking this is 2000 where Romney is Gore and Obama is Bush. We could see a state or two won by razor thin margins like 2000 as well.
I saw a headline in where Obama had to buy ad time in Minnesota.. Not good for the Zero..
What I meant of course is I think Romney wins the popular vote and loses the EV’s.
They bought air time in MN that is broadcast in WI. It’s for WI not MN.
COLUMBUS An Ohio history professors analysis of absentee ballot requests found a significant shift in Republican enthusiasm in the battleground state since 2008.
The University of Daytons Larry Schweikart tallied absentee ballot requests so far in 2012 and compared them to similar requests four years ago. His review showed a 7-point swing in favor of the GOP.
Still more Democrats than Republicans requested early ballots, but Democrats percentage advantage has shifted from 33-19 in 2008 to 30-23 this year.
In 2008, Obama cleaned McCain in absentee voting, Schweikart said in a news release announcing the findings. McCain actually won the statewide vote on Election Day, but he was too far buried in the absentee and early vote count. Early voting in Ohio began earlier this month and could still produce some surprises.
Schweikart found some of the most significant swings came in the states large, heavily Democratic urban counties. Summit County, where Akron is located, led urban counties in pro-Republican swings with a 24-point shift.
In terms of absentee ballot requests, Republicans are hugely over-performing their 2008 levels, and the Democrats are underperforming compared to 2008, especially in the big counties, he said. What this means is that the polls are wrong. For weeks polls have shown an Obama lead ranging from 1 point to 8 points. But these absentee ballot requests reflect a huge enthusiasm gap among Democrats and Republicans, and Im predicting a total shift from 2008.
I sure hope the folks saying this is an attempt to go for a mandate are correct.
Well actually you’re confirming what I said - that the polls don’t indicate OH is swinging to Romney.
Seriously. Obama is in FL? Good. Waste those resources. Looks to me like Romney seeing the internals have secured OH and now are looking to add PA and NH.
I disagree... Besides read this: http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/174690791.html
Those are radio stations in eastern MN that are heard in western WI. I don’t believe they’re worried about MN.
Mitt is down 1 or tied in most Ohio polls today with a D+ 7 or 8 ! What does that tell you:)
No they're not going for a mandate. That's delusional. They may need to carry PA because OH is iffy.
What ??? Mitt is down 1 or tied in Ohio with polls that are D+ 7 or 8. There’s no way Obama gets over D+ 2 or 3 in that state. Figure it out.
PPP Polls has Obama up 1 in Ohio in a +9 Dem sample. In 2008 Ohio was about +5 Dem.
Funny looking at your posting history, nice to see you that showed up during this year..
Our local TV stations broadcast into NH and I have seen zero ads for Romney. Not even one.
I’ll be interested to see if that changes over then next 2 weeks.
I agree these D+9 polls make no sense. I imagine Gallup has Romney ahead there now, if they’ve taken a poll there recently, because their national poll has him leading outside the margin of error.
People are going to worry about Ohio down to election day. The trend is our friend, though.
God help America if that happens.
Mitt’s people are spending all that money in the Boston market. Your TV market in Vermont only hits the western part of NH, which as you know, is the most liberal part of the state. Better bang for the buck in the Boston market which hits the most GOP part of the state.
As I said, I hope you’re right.
I lost the URL that checks posting history. Could you FReepmail me that?
Gallup has Romney 51 to Obama 45. On 10-20-08 it had Obama 51 to McCain 44.
The trend for Mitt is very solid right now, and that’s a big deal. I’m not thrilled with going into Penn, but the Romney team is smart & their internal polls must be showing a REAL shift there otherwise I doubt they would go there.
Romney’s been campaigning in NH for six years. He announced his frigging campaign there (both times, I believe).
See, there's your mistake. Pollsters predict the future based on the future intent of people who haven't acted.
I'm a historian. I predict the future based on evidence of things that have already occurred. What evidence do we have? Polls are not evidence of what has happened or even what will happen. They are badly flawed manipulative tools to tell whatever story someone wants to tell.
On the other hand, we have REAL absentee ballot requests to compare with 08. We have REAL 08 numbers and REAL 2012 numbers. We have REAL early voting numbers.
In all the REAL evidence we have, the Ds are massively down from 08, the Rs are substantially up. The Ds are nowhere here what they need to win OH.
So, the poster is right. I think this is beyond Bush's 04 numbers in OH, probably around a 200,000 R victory.
You got a link to that?
The Susquehanna Poll showing Romney leading +4 has a D+6. That's simply not realistic in the Commonwealth. If we could get to an enthusiasm gap like 2010, Romney would win (Toomey won by 1% I believe, I can't recall Corbett's number in the gubernatorial.) But we aren't going to get there. It will be MUCH closer than 2008, but I think it's a waste of time unless R/R have some internals with D+8 or D+9 that show them something we don't know about. Even so, if R/R has PA, they also have WI, IA and CO, and they probably also have OH, in which case spending money in PA still doesn't make sense.
PA is in reach. PA is ground zero for the 'clean-coal' and 'fracking gas' vote and it is fastly becoming a big issue, and unemployment in PA was bad in 2008 but is much worse now.
There are, however, 500,000+ Obama votes in Philadelphia, and I don't know what happens there. Even if Philly voters identify with Obama, I'm not sure they'll be willing to stand in line for an hour this time.
Good post. I agree. Penn is such a tease, but in the end it’s always just out of reach for the national GOP. Perhaps Mitt’s people will hit the areas in Penn near the Ohio market with ads & kill 2 birds with one stone. IDK.
I think it's fair to say that they're swinging toward him, though.
Seriously? What benefit do you think it has fors him to waste resources? If he’s there it means they think he can win it.
The polls are moving in Romney’s favor in Ohio. It is not won, but he can win it. It has been steadily going in his direction. Most have it in the margin of error or tied. Very winnable.
I don't know anyone, including the usually unreliable pollsters, who think Obama is still alive in FL, NC, or even VA.
Just what Ryan was doing today. Pittsburgh Intl. Airpot is only 30 miles from the Ohio state line. Ryan flew in the Pittsburgh, did a rally at the airport then drove off into SE Ohio coal-country for more apparences.
The absentee ballot requests are good data. So is the trend of party registration in states that register by party. So are the “exit polls” (given that we have early voting, an increasing proportion of the polls we have are exit polls). But, so are polls that actually are polls of voting preference.
In 2004, Ohio had a 5 point Republican advantage and, in 2008, an 8 point Democratic advantage. This was a huge swing. Then, from 2008 to the mid-term elections of 2010, another huge swing, 9 points.
Also, looking at Gallup’s tracking of party affiliation among adults (or possibly registered voters), from 2009 to 2011, a similar 9 point swing.
So, there is the potential for a huge swing in the partisan mix from 2008 to 2012. This year, who knows, I’m thinking a 1 point Democratic advantage is conservative (from a pro-Romney view).
Another way to look at this is the demographics of voters as revealed by the post-election Current Population Survey. The big shift in 2008 was due (A) to blacks and (B) to younger adults. Possibly black turnout will remain at its elevated level of 2008, but it is not credible that young adult turnout will. This argues that the demographics of this election will be something between those of 2004 and 2008, which would support the argument that the partisan mix will also be something between.
Now, let’s look at the recent polls in Ohio. Four recent telephone polls (not including Rasmussen) and two recent internet polls involve Democratic partisan advantages ranging from 4 to 9 points. That does not look right. What I suspect is going on is that the pollsters are either imposing the partisan mix of the 2008 election, and/or the demographic mix of the 2008 election onto the responses, by weighting the responses.
Now I’ll look at Raz. He imposes a moving average partisan mix. This is fine for the country (although it temporarily stifles a shift in voter preferences that coincides with a shift in party affiliation, which, I believe, explains the current cleavage between Rasmussen’s and Gallup’s nationwide numbers).
What Raz does at the state level is adjust the state spread by the changes in the national spread. But the national spread has been changing slow relative to the changes in the spread in Ohio during the past four years. So, I think Raz’ methodology results in him being off by a couple points in Ohio.
When I adjust the polls to reflect a 1 point Democratic advantage in Ohio, I get Romney up by 2 points. This still makes the state a toss-up. But, there is reason to be optimistic.
One final point. The foray into Pennsylvania is not merely a feint. At this point, it might not be possible for the other side to gear up a GOTV effort. If Romney is within 2 points in this state, and if he is flush with cash and Obama is strapped, Romney can steal this state (and a couple others) during the week prior to the election.
“they do that when they have territory locked up and want to try for more.”
Right On! I’m gonna know the election is wrapped up when I see Romney campaigning in California.
You are really onto something here, and I saw an article BUT CAN'T FIND IT NOW, SO HELP IF YOU CAN!! :), that was something like "Obama wins OH if 400,000 white people don't vote." The gist was that all the polls are not JUST oversampling Ds, but heavily oversampling blacks and hispanics. They are likewise undersampling whites, but especially white Rs.
I've Googled, looked on FR, Big Government but can't find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it.
If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me.
If you see posts of interest to Pennsylvanians, please ping me.
Pretty amazing, huh?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.