Posted on 10/21/2012 10:35:32 AM PDT by Siegfried X
IBD/TIPP 2012 Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll
Day 13: Oct. 21, 2012
Obama: +5.7 Obama 47.9% | Romney 42.2%
Polling period: 10/15 - 10/20
Margin of Error: +/- 3.5%
Sample Size: 913 likely voters (identified from 1044 registered voters with party affiliation of 37% Dem, 30% GOP, 32% Ind.)
Methodology: Traditional telephone methodology using Random Digit Dial (RDD) landline and cell phone samples
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
John McCain got 47% of the nationwide popular vote in 2008. I can’t where Romney got less than that if he was losing.
The state of the race is such that now its effectively his to lose. When you look like the winner, people’s expectations shift accordingly.
“Attempt to cancel Gallup Poll effect on RCP avg of polls.”
Exactly.
This is funny stuff! Obama wins the MALE vote by 1 point! I pretty much stopped reading there.
The margin of error is due to the small sample size.
When the candidates are more than that much apart, the poll is essentially meaningless.
Averaging uncertainty gives more uncertainty, not better numbers.
What matters is how many normal people get out and vote.
Its not over yet.
It also depends on how many abnormal people get out and vote too. And how many illegals. And how many "rise from the dead". You know, there's lots of tricks and the dems know them all.
7 point Dem oversample, garbage poll.
Rational sample +3 Dems would put this 46 R, 43 O which would match up pretty closely to Rasmussen.
Exactly. Such garbage.
We hit the tipping point about 15 years ago ~ there is no way this method can recover.
The problem is you have to call well over 9,000 people to get 1,000 ~ then caller ID negates the randomness of the calls ~ a small special interest group like homosexuals (GBLT) can pledge to ALWAYS answer pollster calls and they will end up appearing to be 10X their actual number!
IDEOLOGY Conservative Obama Romney Not Sure 22% 69% 7%I'm the most pessimistic person here but this doesn't seem right...
Wait a minute. A 6 day tracking poll goes from 1.7 to 5.7 in a day? If it’s a pure average of the 6 days - doesn’t that indicate a 24 point swing in one day?
What am I missing here?
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