Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)

The Wall Street Journal ^ | 11/01/12 | Karl Rove

[TonyInOhio]

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

~ snip ~

In addition to the data, the anecdotal and intangible evidence—from crowd sizes to each side's closing arguments—give the sense that the odds favor Mr. Romney. They do. My prediction: Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president. Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

[ari-freedom]

I don’t care about gloating. I just want Romney to win to put an end to this Obama nonsense.

[The Hound Passer]

"Sometime after the cock crows on the morning of Nov. 7, Mitt Romney will be declared America's 45th president."

I'm confused by that sentence. If Romney wins why would Axelrod be crowing on the 7th

/sarc

[MeanGreen2008]

Those poll numbers today were miserable. Yeah, I know... oversampling and all that. It was still heartbreaking to see them.

[paul544]

I heard that too but disagree. He took him off the trail and put him front and center on national TV in the most positive light possible. Obama could campaign for a month and not get that kind of coverage. No. Christie F’d us good.

[paul51]

dream on. save yourself a lot of frustration and aggravation and find another place to gloat and be happy

[Mike Darancette]

I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.

R loses OH, MI & PA wins NV, CO, IA & WI, FL & VA you know the rest.

[LostInBayport]

They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!

I know! After all we've endured the past four years, not being able to celebrate with my FRiends would be a real letdown. (although I have a bottle of wine that will still not survive the night in any event) Plus, I don't have TV; where will I read the stories about the hysterical meltdowns at MSDNC?

[TonyInOhio]

Those poll numbers today were miserable. Yeah, I know... oversampling and all that.

C'mon, man, buck up! That PPP number that got you down wasn't "oversampling", it was outright fraud! Do you think that Obama will increase his turnout from 2008, a year in which the first black man was running on the back of a financial meltdown? You have to be willfully blind not to see how apathetic Barry's supporters are to vote, yet PPP wants you to believe some 5% more voters than 2008 will show up to vote for him this time around. It's a blatant lie, designed to depress GOP turnout, and it looks like it might have had an effect on you.

Do this - ignore the polling, and look at the actual results from early and absentee voting that are cited by Rove in the article. Then, have faith.

[SamAdams76]

Political pundits are like weatherman. They are wrong more than half the time but they still somehow get put on TV every night like they are some kind of expert.

Karl Rove fits right in here - with both pundits and weathermen. All summer long, he was blathering that all was lost for Romney and that Obama was poised to collect 300+ electoral votes. Now that he is obviously about to be proved very wrong, he is revising his forecast at the last minute. But he's not going completely in the other direction and saying that Romney will get over 300+ EVs. Oh no! If he did that, he'd have to admit that he was totally wrong all summer long.

So like a weatherman, he's going to hedge his bets. He's going to give us a forecast of partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. That way, either if it is sunny or it rains, he can claim that his forecast was close.

So basically if Romney does get over 300+ EVs, Rove can say he was close, after all he predicted 279 EVs. But if Obama ekes out a narrow win, Rove can still claim to be not that far off the mark.

So he's nothing more than a weatherman predicting partly cloudy with a 50% chance of rain. Any bum hanging out at the Circus Circus in Las Vegas can make that prediction.

[TonyInOhio]

I’d liked to know how he comes up with the 279 number.

He wins FL, VA, NC, NH, and OH, and does not carry the 2nd District of Maine (which splits it's Electoral College votes by district). The result is a 279-259 win. My own guess is that he will carry Iowa and Maine's 2nd District to win 285 votes. If the early surge pans out, he carries Wisconsin, too, to get to 295.

[Arthurio]

This is a 279 ev map. http://goo.gl/hG2vy

[Vince Ferrer]

They HAVE TO fix this site by election night! I NEED a place to gloat and be happy and spread the joy!

I f it gets this bad I will spend election night on Democratic Underground or some such site. Will still be fun though.

[ConservativeInPA]

My prediction, Electoral Vote: R - 338, O - 200. Popular vote: R - 52%, O - 47%, Other: 1%

[Repeal 16-17]

Let's call it 51%-48%, with Mr. Romney carrying at least 279 Electoral College votes, probably more.

I think those numbers are too conservative. Romney will get at least 53% and 320 Electoral Votes.

[Sola Veritas]

I don’t care squat what Rove says...he needs to retire from public life. I am still not happy with Romney being the GOP pick, but his debate performance has earned him some respect.

Bottom line, for me, is that I don’t care if Romney wins by one electorial vote...I just don’t want to see Obama be reelected. Romney isn’t going to be a good or great POTUS, but he will be worlds better than Obama.

[paudio]

I do care the number of ECs Romney gets. If it’s 270 or low 270s, it’s in danger of being blackmailed by the so-called unfaithful electors.

[nathanbedford]

A look at the map raise the question down to three states, Ohio and Wisconsin and Iowa.

These questions are yes no/questions, Romney either wins or loses these states and the election. How would you bet if you had to?

Romney is more likely than not take Ohio. Early voting, intensity, ground game, undecideds, generation gap, momentum, are all running in Romney's favor. It would be very unlikely for Obama to overcome these deficiencies in view of his 47% ceiling. Since we must choose, we pick Romney.

Romney is more likely than not to take Wisconsin. He has the recent historical election experiences, the momentum, the ground game certainly, and Paul Ryan in addition to generation gap and the undecideds. If you have to choose, and you do, Romney is the likely winner.

With either Ohio or Wisconsin, Romney wins the race and will be the next president. He need not win Iowa but only win new Hampshire where he is likely to win.

Furthermore, it is likely that Romney will win both Ohio and Wisconsin and probably Iowa. The only question that is open is Pennsylvania which is needed only to bring Romney up to 315 (316 with one vote from Maine). Michigan is even in the mix and will go to Romney in a landslide but right now, since we have to pick, I pick Obama to win Michigan. I pick Obama to win Nevada but both of these last states in a landslide will go Romney.

[FrdmLvr]

okay,here’s mine:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=22221211122112122221111122222221111221112222221112211222

[MuttTheHoople]

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=22221211122112122221111122222221111221112222221112211222

[Tea Party Terrorist]

Me either but he was right. This time around he has a super pac going so I wonder if he’s really objective.