Posted on 11/01/2012 6:55:46 AM PDT by TonyInOhio
I've been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today's new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off '08 pace
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama '08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain '08 (statewide down 9.2%)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in '08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in '08)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O...in Kerry '04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. '08 (only -1.7% in Bush)
VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax - 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..
I'm starting to wonder if polling is headed the way of the buggy whip precisely because of the proliferation of communications technology.
What people tell you on a phone today has lost all correlation with what people who get in their car and drive to a polling place will do in the booth.
Early on when bells rang and people politely answered the door/phone, polling worked. Now that caller id, do-not call lists, voicemail (how many people really still have landlines with answering machines!), unlisted numbers, cell phones with all the above... etc....even if you can reach them, the proliferation of these "communications curtains" implies that people don't politely want to talk to others, possibly particularly strangers!
There is SO MUCH NOISE in the data now, the filters used to recover the signal are recovering whatever the filter designers choose!
So I think society is headed in a way where pre-polling and exit-polling is going to become relatively useless.
It’s important to note that when they speak of “localities” in VA, they mean counties or independent cities (there are a lot of the latter). Some liberals have tried to show better results for Obama in certain precincts in some state or other, ignoring the fact that precinct number 104 from 2008 could be way different from precinct 104 in 2012 due to redistricting. However, county (and independent city) lines stayed the same, so Cook is comparing apples to apples. These findings indeed are great news.
There is no doubt that more Reps will vote this time around. They are far more motivated and angry than 2008.
From your lips to God’s ear.
If you apply the 2010 model, which this election is looking more and more like...you get a massive Obama defeat from the polling. The MSM and major polling places to date are unwilling to do this.
Dick Morris is averaging the elections from 2000 through 2010 and is showing a large Romney win...his model may end up being the most accurate...for obvious reasons.
On November 6th, We the People are goingt to STAND OBAMA DOWN!
http://www.jeffhead.com/standobamadown.htm
Cook Political Report VA Absentees Tracker, Updated 10/31/12
LOL! My wife and I had this discussion last night. I agree with you completely. I also don’t see political campaigns paying for the expense of phone banks for much longer. It gets worse evrry election. I’ve been volunteering for campaigns since I was a kid and I’ll bet I’ve made half a million calls in my time. Used to be you got an answer on nearly every call and when someone answered they’d listen to what you had to say. Those days are gone and never coming back.
I plead innocent! I don't even know your wife! =D
Got things nailed down in Ohio so you’ve turned your attention to Virginia, Tony?
Actually these polls are reflecting what is on the ground. They can NOT show a poll with a reasonable breakout of voters. They can ONLY come up with a lead by wildly oversampling RATS.
The polls are actually showing a huge landslide for R/R. 5-10%.
Interesting points.
Not only is that all true but now we are pestered by unwanted phone calls for more than in the past.
When they started polling many people still did not even have phones and, for those who did, calls were fairly rare so people would talk to a pollster.
Now it is non-stop calls for phoney viagra, insurance, scams of various sorts. AT LEAST 50% of my calls are unwanted. And when you can look at the number calling, forget an unnamed and/or strange number.
Absolutely Not! Early voting is an invitation to fraud. Voting day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Period.
The possible fly in the ointment, is that election-year-to-election-year numbers might be measuring different things. The rules are evolving in many states regarding early voting, and whereas some of us refused to Early Vote as a protest against opening the door to vote fraud, now we feel, “what the heck, why fight it, it IS more convenient,” and so more of us join the EV crowd.
I have received over 400 political calls this election, including "polling companies" which are usually push-polls (if they say they have 4 questions, it's a fake, they just want to read somebody's talking points to you).
So the question becomes: Are Obama or Romney supporters more likely to hang up on a pollster? Who's most busy? Who ends up on call lists? I do!
I voted early in Virginia this year for the first time. It was not on a normal voting machine. I assume they are going to hand count the votes of my location.Not sure I feel great about the situation. I think it will be above board. I voted on a paper ballot and some machine sucked the paper in and I noticed that the count number on the front of the machine did not change when it took mine. I assume that is what the number stood for. It kinda looked like a copy machine.
The number on the front said 277 and when mine went in I looked to see if it changed and it did not.
A friend of mine who is very politically active tried to talk me into voting for Goode. He is the head of an off brand Tea Party. I hope he doesn’t get over 1%.
Mother Nature doesn’t care how many times you stamp your feet and say “PERIOD”. The reality is that crossing your fingers and hoping everything will be functioning on one specific day is stupid.
“I also don’t see political campaigns paying for the expense of phone banks for much longer.”
As one of the millions who refuse to answer their phone anymore unless the call is screened, I agree. Political campaigning is going to be adverts and going back to banging on doors.
It is unbelieveable the number of people who will look the other way at voter fraud, just so there is not an ounce of chance of them being slightly inconvenienced.
Read John Fund's book, then we'll discuss.
I never answer mine either. I don't even bother to screen anymore, anyone who needs to call me, who I wish to speak with, knows to call my cell. Our landline is strictly there for emergencies ( I can't think of why we would need it in an emergency but my wife refuses to cut the cord). As for door knocks...the Romney campaign in S.E. VA have done more than I have ever seen a campaign do in 40 years. I believe that every door in VA Beach will be banged by Tuesday!
DU is on suicide watch.
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