Even I know these numbers are cooked.
Posted on 11/02/2012 4:41:44 AM PDT by blam
We're About To Get One Of The Most Important Jobs Reports In History — Here's What You Need To Know
Matthew Boesler
Nov. 2, 2012, 4:10 AM
Today's nonfarm payrolls data – out at 8:30 AM ET in the U.S. – is the final jobs report before the presidential election on November 6.
Consensus estimates are for 125k new jobs, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent a month ago.
The election is already a huge source of uncertainty for fragile markets at the moment, and a bad jobs number could really set the tone for stocks ahead of the election.
Societe Generale strategist Vincent Chaigneau writes in a note to clients that "weak NFP and the US elections will be a challenge for the S&P, which is trading some 0.8% above key support levels (1400 area)...our economists look for a soft NFP, which would keep US equities shaky into the elections."
That economist is Michala Marcussen, who says she expects the unemployment rate to drop, but due to changes in the participation rate:
The US October employment report will be released as planned on Friday despite the disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy. Our forecast is for a 90K gain on payrolls (below the 120K of consensus). At the same time, we look for the unemployment rate to decline to 7.7% - its lowest level since December 2008. The better trend on both Japanese and US unemployment rates, however, masks declining participation rates.
Taking a snapshot across the G4, generally low employment rates at first glance suggest historically high spare capacity on labour markets. Evidence suggests, however, that structural unemployment rates are trending higher, and notably on the European periphery, adding an additional headwind on these already hard hit economies.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
110,000 new jobs will be reported and the unemployment rate will come in at 6.5%
"The decline of the Spanish, Italian, and German manufacturing sectors accelerated in October. "
I’m guessing an unemployment rate of 2.1%.
I can’t imagine these numbers won’t be doctored by Frankenstein himself before they are released... : /
I can’t imagine these numbers won’t be doctored by Frankenstein himself before they are released... : /
310,000 new jobs will be reported and the unemployment rate will come in at 6.5% ,, to be revised 11/8/2012 to 64,000 and 7.9%
7.5% it shall be.
Happy days are here again.
Totally irrelevant. People are going to vote on the basis of what they see in their own lives, not some BS numbers released by Washington.
Too little, too late.
regardless of the numbers, the report will have little or no effect. The die is already cast
If you think this report will be anything but decidedly good you are kidding yourself. There is no way this is a bad report or even a ho-hum report.
Even I know these numbers are cooked.
Yeah, 2.1% unemployment rate and about 857,000,000 (this is world wide because Obama’s policies are far reaching) new jobs created, all full time and paying over $65,000 annually +benefits (free car, gasoline, family healthcare, fully funded 401k, etc)
Agreed.
If the numbers were bad, Sandy gave them an excuse not to release them at all.
They will be cooked like never before. Wouldn’t surprise me if it shows jobs being created at a rate even better than Reagan’s best month.
Oh please, that pattern is set. There will be 175k+ new jobs, Unemployment rate will DROP, only to be revised next month to reflect reality.
Naaw, more like 1,250,000 new jobs and a 5.2 unemployment rate with the caveat that all numbers are subject to adjustment Nov. 9 ..............
they will drop the rate to 7.4% based on ADP of 150K and pixie dust
Rate UP to 7.9%
New jobs 179,000
U6 = 14.6%
I wonder what the unemployment rate will be when Romney is elected...11.8%??? And then claim that Romney’s policies caused a rise in unemployment from 7.7 to 11.8%
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