Posted on 11/02/2012 11:01:31 AM PDT by ReaganÜberAlles
Ok, over the last 3 elections 2008, 2004 & 2000 Repubs have won MO by .13, 7.20 & 3.34% respectively.
Latest polls (2) give Romney a 12-13% point lead (54-42, 54-41, taken in the last week,...RCP has an average of polls of an 11.2% lead for Romney) Now MO does tend to lean a bit Conservative.
Missouri is a true swing state, a bellweather, with amazing historical accuracy at voting for the ultimate election winner.
Since 1904, Missourians have gotten it wrong just twice –preferring Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower in 1956, and John McCain over Barack Obama in 2008. This latter vote was by the slenderest of margins…..49.4% to 49.3%, or about 3,900 votes out of 2.93 million cast.
Reagan won the state by about 9.75% in 1980 and smashed Carter nationwide
Romney is trouncing Obama in MO. Looks like he will win by at least 10% maybe even 12-14% there. How can this be? MO has not changed that much in the last 10-12 years.
It seems to me that the national vote will more closely mirror MOs.
Thoughts?
I think Obama is going to get fired, hard.
The GOP and Romney will think that they are beloved, which is an error. Their opponents are merely more deeply detested.
Whether Romney can do better than Ford or Bush when it is his turn to run as an incumbent only time will tell. It works to his advantage that we have had more than two decades of weak or conflicted presidents.
Missouri does tend to be a bellweather. 2008 was an exception but a very narrow one. MO may be trending conservative but it’s hard to see how a double digit lead won’t result in a Romney win nationwide. Hard to believe there’s that much of a disconnect.
Should have said:
“Whether Romney can do better than Ford or George Herbert Walker Bush when it is his turn to run as an incumbent only time will tell.
How much does St. Joe swing the state? Is it close the imbalance of Chicago and Illinois, or not so much?
I like yours! ;-)
MO uncannily replicates the national average - its a microcosm of America. But you have to wonder if its still a true swing state.
Its been trending Red ever since 2000. And Romney’s lead there tell us nothing about the national electorate though if he really is up 13 points in MO - that means all the national polls are probably way off!
We’ll see if that’s true Tuesday night but I expect Romney to comfortably carry the “Show Me” State.
You know, I hadn’t noticed it this election cycle, but the media has been IGNORING the presidential race in Missouri—any national focus on the state has been about Akin.
You make an excellent point about Missouri. No wonder the press is ignoring this part of the race.
Are you in Missouri? Do you think Romney will have coattails enough to bring Akin into the win column?
You know, I hadn’t noticed it this election cycle, but the media has been IGNORING the presidential race in Missouri—any national focus on the state has been about Akin.
You make an excellent point about Missouri. No wonder the press is ignoring this part of the race.
Are you in Missouri? Do you think Romney will have coattails enough to bring Akin into the win column?
You know, I hadn’t noticed it this election cycle, but the media has been IGNORING the presidential race in Missouri—any national focus on the state has been about Akin.
You make an excellent point about Missouri. No wonder the press is ignoring this part of the race.
Are you in Missouri? Do you think Romney will have coattails enough to bring Akin into the win column?
You mean St. Louis?
The dim strongholds in MO would be the St. Louis and KC metros and Columbia. The rest of the state is pretty conservative, especially southern Missouri. But there’s not a single city like Chicago that dominates the landscape to such a degree.
St Louis would be the closest of those three but still nowhere near so dominant.
Background on MO as a national bellwether:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_bellwether
Romney’s substantial lead in MO seems to indicate we’re looking at a national blowout. If it was really as close as national polls indicate, Romney’s lead in the state should be within the margin of error. I think its the national polls that are wrong! And if MO is right, Romney will be our next President.
Jefferson County is the MO bellwether county - whoever does well here will win the state:
https://www.stlbeacon.org/#!/content/27787/jeff_co_bellwether
Its really fascinating.
My tag line is soooo true!
You make an excellent point about Missouri. No wonder the press is ignoring this part of the race.
Are you in Missouri? Do you think Romney will have coattails enough to bring Akin into the win column?
0bamaClaire has been killing Akin on airtime and the major papers and tv have pretty much ignored her husband's benefiting from the stimulus money and cutting deals in the senate dining room, yet Akin is tied. Claire was 0’s state chairperson in 08 but now acts like she doesn't know him. However, few have forgotten her vote for 0bamacare and how big a jerk she was about it at the townhalls...something along the lines of “if you don't like it fire me”, I'm taking her up on the offer.
I am in the Southeast part of MO— a fairly conservative part of the state. We get ads from Mo, Ill., Ky, & Tenn. I am struck not by how anti-Obama the Republican ads are, but how the Democrats don’t seem to want to talk about him at all. No one wants to brag about voting for Obamacare—which, if it’s his crowning achievement, you’d think they’d be bragging about. This may be different in different parts of the state and nation, but around here no Democrat has Obama pics in his/her ads.
I’m not in MO. I just have been looking at the past elections (http://uselectionatlas.org/)
and current RCP polls and scratchin my head about it.
MO can’t be that far off the national vote count! IT never has been!
I was in Lee’s Summit today and a black man handed me a “Mr. President You’re fired” bumper sticker. I love that black man.
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