Texas' New Senator Is Absolutely Terrified About His State Going Blue

Business Insider ^ | 11/12/2012 | Brett LoGiurato

[SeekAndFind]

APIn Ryan Lizza's story in this week's The New Yorker, Texas' newly-elected Republican Senator Ted Cruz worries about the changing electoral landscape --- and how it could get even less favorable for the GOP in coming years. 

Cruz provides what must be a truly terrifying thought for the Republican Party:

"In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat," he said. "If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won't be talking about Ohio, we won't be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won't matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’”

Mitt Romney already faced a tough road to the White House through the electoral map this year, and the country's shifting demographics make the map an even bigger problem for the Republican Party in future elections. 

Some Democrats think that Texas and Arizona could be the next to become swing states, and there were signs of a future Democratic invasion into these Southwestern states during the 2012 campaign, including San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro's keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention. 

Cruz is right: Without Texas' 38 electoral votes, it would be virtually impossible for Republicans to win a presidential election. There is simply not a corresponding state that Republicans are targeting to go from blue to red. 

[deport]

I have no doubt that some hispanic families do vote the GOP line. But the map I posted showed a lot of counties along the border that vote democrat and they are majority hispanic I think.

Here are some links with info but I’ve persued the data within them.

http://www.gahcc.org/Texas-Latino-Voters.texaslatinovoters.0.html

http://www.wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/latino_voter_statistics/tx_lv.html

http://pewhispanic.org/files/factsheets/vote2010/TX-eligible-voter-factsheet.pdf

http://www.census.gov/prod/cen2010/briefs/c2010br-04.pdf

[castlegreyskull]

“Send “scouts” to red county blue states and offer incentives and perks to move to Texas.”

I am planning to move there in the next year from CT. As long as my wife and I can get work.

[Melas]

Not even close dude. We’re 38% hispanic in 2012.

[vickixxxx]

I had the day off today, and that’s exactly what I saw in Walmart today. I felt like I was in some third world country!

[Will88]

Thanks, in the fourth (Census) link:

Citizenship. Some 17% of Hispanic eligible voters in Texas are naturalized U.S. citizens, compared with 8% of all Texas eligible voters. Hispanic eligible voters in Texas are more likely to be native-born citizens (83%) than are Hispanic eligible voters nationwide (74%).

83% of eligible Hispanic voters in Texas-are native born. It doesn't say how long the Hispanics have been in the US, but I have long thought that Texas would have a larger percentage of native-born and well established Hispanic families than on average in the US. And the 25%-30% of Hispanic voters who vote Republican probably come more from the families that have been in the US the longest.

And I'd bet the Texas Hispanics are more likely to be conservative than California Hispanics.

I think amnesty would be suicide for the GOP, and that 80% or more of those new arrivals would vote Democrat at the first oppportunity.

[PMAS]

They need to be better educated on conservatism, and not by the MSM

[lone star annie]

When you are at the store at a restaurant or whatever just start talking to them. You will be surprised. The legal ones with jobs doen’t appreciate the illegals taking their jobs.

[TurboZamboni]

is this from Center on Immigration Studies? (CIS)

[deport]

And I’d bet the Texas Hispanics are more likely to be conservative than California Hispanics.

---

I would agree with that premise.

[PMAS]

So true, wait until they see those illegals getting benefits as they work their asses off.

[JerseyHighlander]

Itend to agree with you, but the last time I read about this someone suggested it’s more likely that Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon will secede from Mexico and apply to join the USA, for multitudes of reasons involving...
social safety net transfer payments from DC
access to US banking system
integration of the transportation corridor along Gulf of Mexico, including the US exporting LNG to Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon as Mexico runs out of petroleum reserves.

[wardaddy]

You’re full of crap to be an early freeper.

[Gritty]

If you pee in one side of the punchbowl, it eventually makes it to the other side.

Bye Bye, America...

[wardaddy]

Yes but Obama lost more voters than the GOP did..obviously though mitt did not motivate

Palin must have been a factor

Lost on ass clowns here as they rush to stuff their gullets in Mexican free love enchilada giveaways

And this is conservatism

Pitiful

Conservatives must have cut their own balls off. With a racial sameness razor

[kabar]

You can look at these tables and divine some of the info re natives, but natives include lots of anchor babies and 2nd generation immigrants. We have 40 million foreign born in this country and that doesn't include their US born children and grandchildren. Immigration drives around 80% of the population growth in this country. Many anchor babies receive food stamps and Medicaid. It is also worth remembering that the costs of 40% of all children born in the US are funded thru Medicaid.

[nascarnation]

Useful data set, thanks.

I really believe demographics are the problem.

Old white Republicans die and are replaced by non-whites who are voting > 70% Democrat.

[kabar]

Yes, we have a demographic problem. Minorities and immigrants vote two to one for Dems. Many years from now when historians write about the decline and fall of the United States of America, they will point to the Immigration Act of 1965 as the primary cause. The 1965 Immigration Act: Anatomy of a Disaster

The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 90 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by an additional 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the world’s third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.963% (2011 estimate,) principally due to immigration.

The nation’s immigrant population (legal and illegal) reached 40 million in 2010, the highest number in our history. The U.S. immigrant population has doubled since 1990, nearly tripled since 1980, and quadrupled since 1970, when it stood at 9.7 million. Of the 40 million immigrants in the country in 2010, 13.9 million arrived in 2000 or later making it the highest decade of immigration in American history, even though there was a net loss of jobs during the decade. Growth in the immigrant population has primarily been driven by high levels of legal immigration. Roughly three-fourths of immigrants in the country are here legally. With nearly 12 million immigrants, Mexico was by far the top immigrant-sending country, accounting for 29 percent of all immigrants and 29 percent of growth in the immigrant population from 2000 to 2010. The median age of immigrants in 2010 was 41.4 compared to 35.9 for natives.

87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2042, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.

[tatown]

Texas was once very blue. As recently as 1996, the GOP was only able to carry the state by about 5 points or less!

As of right now there is very little chance of TX becoming blue again anytime soon. From 2008 till now, it only got redder.

[Mr. Jeeves]

We do not have an Hispanic problem. We have an immigrant, minority, and younger voter problem. The changing demographics of this country have electoral consequences and have for decades except the Rep political elites and pundits have failed to recognize it.

Exactly right. If we can't make the GOP brand attractive to young voters again and overcome the opposition's massive effort to damage it among that demographic, then the racial statistics won't really matter. Liberty has an inherent appeal to youth, but Reagan was the last President able to articulate a GOP vision of liberty.

[kabar]

According to the CNN exit polls, whites 18-29 voted for Romney 51%-44%. Latinos of the same age group voted 74% to 23% for Obama. And Blacks voted 91%-8% for Obama.

We may be on our way to creating a white identity, not a good thing but understandable as this society becomes more polarized along racial, ethnic, and cultural lines. This romanticized idea of a melting pot may be crumbling as the demographic mix changes. The US is not immune to the same kinds of forces that affect many other societies. In many cases, it is just a function of numbers that can set off the dynamic of political tribalism.

I fear we are heading that way as the country becomes more diverse and multicultural. Triumphalism among minorities that non-Hispanic whites will soon be a minority and the fear that engenders among whites will be a significant national problem, especially since there is a decided wealth gap between most minorities (except Asians) and non-Hispanic whites. Class struggles and the echos of Marxist rhetoric will increase. Wealthy and the rich will become synonymous with certain races and ethnicities. The is the tinder box that Obama's rhetoric has spawned. He has been a very dangerous influence on this country, a divider not a uniter.

It is interesting to note that 54% of Latinos self-describe themselves as white.