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Gallup Blew Its Presidential Polls, but Why?
Yahoo News ^ | 11/18/2012 | Steven Shepard

Posted on 11/19/2012 7:15:20 AM PST by SeekAndFind

Last week's presidential election has widely been seen as a victory for pollsters who, on balance, saw President Obama as the favorite before Election Day. But that wasn't the case for the esteemed Gallup Organization. Its polling showed Republican Mitt Romney with a significant lead among likely voters 10 days before Nov. 6 and marginally ahead of Obama on the eve of an election that Obama won by about 3 percentage points.

At an event on Thursday at Gallup's downtown Washington offices, Gallup Editor in Chief Frank Newport told a gathering of fellow pollsters that the organization was reviewing its methodology in light of these inaccuracies. But its fairly consistent Republican bias in 2012 and its overestimation of the white portion of the electorate raise important questions about sampling and the way Gallup determines which respondents are registered and likely to vote.

"We don't have a definitive answer," Newport said.

The day before Election Day, Gallup released data culled from the four previous days, showing Romney with a 1-point lead among likely voters, 49 percent to 48 percent. Before that final survey, Gallup had suspended polling for three days in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, when nearly 10 million Americans were without electricity.

Immediately before the storm hit, Gallup showed Romney ahead by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, and Romney led by as many as 7 points in mid-October. All the while, most other national polls showed a neck-and-neck race.

The reasons for Gallup's inaccurate results remain unclear, and they are particularly baffling because Gallup, from a simple methodological standpoint, does things the right way. The company calls both landline and cellular telephones, and in October, it increased the proportion of cell-phone interviews to half.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cinoparanoia; conspiracytheories; elections; gallup; polls
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To: SeekAndFind

Because they only allowed for clinton-scale cheating, and figured that Romney would have a competent poll-watching program, especially in states with Republican governors.


21 posted on 11/19/2012 9:17:10 AM PST by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: SeekAndFind

Polls don’t count cheating...Unless there is a “fudge factor”.
Gallop must not have used one. And therefore since the cheating was on such a massive scale then it messed up Gallop.


22 posted on 11/19/2012 9:45:09 AM PST by Revel
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To: SeekAndFind

Votes are still coming in.

As of this morning 124.6 million votes have been counted. Obama is currently down over 6 million from 2008 and Romney is down .5 million from what McCain received.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html


23 posted on 11/19/2012 10:06:25 AM PST by ReaganÜberAlles
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To: SeekAndFind

First, the numbers changed during the final week.

Gallup and Rasmussen both had Romney’s lead shrink, from 5 and 3 to 1 point the day before the election. But, the polls published the day before were collected over a three day period. So, there were on average 2 days old.

The mainstream media polls went from neck-and-neck on average to something between neck-and-nexk and a 3 point advantage for Obama, we’ll call it a 1 point average Obama advantage. Again, the polls released the day before were generally conducted over several days.

So, allowing for these two sets of polls to encompass the possibility of a little bias this way or that way, they tell us the same story. The numbers were changing.

A simple answer is that the storm turned Romney’s cruise to victory into a defeat.

A better answer is that Romney did not run through the tape. He should have hit Obama hard on Benghazi in the final Presidential debate. He shold have said the real issue isn’t the extent to which the President lied to the American people to save his campaign slogan. The issue is how weak is the U.S. and, therefore, how dangerous is the world.

Instead, Romney positioned himself as a non-threatening alternative.

A yet better answer is that he should have attacked fire with fire. When he was attacked personally, he should have attacked the President personally. He should have said, why are they lying about my background, it is because they can’t tell the truth about Obama’s background.

Isn’t it obvious that he’s an empty suit. He doesn’t know a thing about the economy. He was given a pass by the media in 2008 and, now, with our continued economic troubles, we’re paying for it.

But, instead of fighting fire with fire, he thought his corporate perma-smile would convince everybody he really was a nice guy.

Nice guys finish second in the game of politics where if you don’t win, you’re a loser.


24 posted on 11/19/2012 11:23:42 AM PST by Redmen4ever
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To: patriot08
Just to support what you said, I thought it would be interesting to find the number of Obama votes in the most Mormon county in America.

According to this link in Slate, that honor belongs to Franklin County, Idaho at 92%, which also happens to be the home of the famous Napoleon Dynamite.

I tried to find precinct by precinct data for the county, but could not. However, I did find data showing that 94% of the voters in the country voted in the Republican primary earlier in the year. Romney managed to win only 86% of the voters in the Republican presidential caucus and only 93% of the voters in the presidential election.

Yet, we are all supposed to believe that not one single voter in 56 Philadelphia precincts voted for Romney?

Really? Even among the doofus population there is an occasional genius who realizes that a society which actually produces wealth has more to loot than one which only redistributes it.

25 posted on 11/19/2012 11:26:54 AM PST by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: stickywillie
and weren’t told about the epic fraud around the corner the other liberal pollsters were told about the fraud, so they compensated.

... or -- Occam's Razor -- the Republican party attempted to beat a doctrinaire Chicago liberal with a doctrinaire Massachusetts liberal, and suffered an entirely predictable (and predicted) electoral thumping, as a result.

Go right ahead and keep placing your faith in the revealed wisdom of Karl Rove and Dick Morris, however.

Hillary Clinton will certainly appreciate the GOP-e's continued blind, mulish insistence upon gainsaying brute reality, when she crushes Jebbie Bush and/or Chris Christie, come '16.

26 posted on 11/19/2012 12:08:59 PM PST by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle

They will find these votes in the Ohio or Mississippi River, maybe in both.


27 posted on 11/19/2012 1:43:00 PM PST by RightLady
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To: All

What went wrong??
How can we fix it in 2016??
Who do you support in 2016??

There won’t be anything left of America by 2016.

The time to ‘fix it’ is NOW.

Start with the election. If we let the Rats get away with this massive voter fraud, we’re no better than a bananna republic.

We must keep digging and pounding him every day, in every way we can- phony birth certificate, Benghazi, Fast and Furious, his hidden life, records....

There are massive reports of criminal activity
(not mischief, not shenanigans- CRIMINAL ACTIVITY) going on all over the U.S during the presidential election.

Reports of machines changing votes from Romney to Obama, eyewitness reports of Republican poll watchers who observed busloads of non-English speaking Somalians in Ohio being instructed to vote Obama- the list is endless.
http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

Romney lost because of this, not any other reason.
Nobody could have won against the fraud planned and perpetrated by the Obama Machine.

Silence in the face of evil is itself evil. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.

The evidence is overwhelming!

http://www.westernjournalism.com/obama-stole-the-election/

http://obamavoterfraud.blogspot.com/

http://newtgingrich360.com/profiles/blogs/obama-stole-the-election

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/election-fraud-obama-won-more-than-99-percent-of-the-vote-in-more-than-100-ohio-precincts

http://appalachianforums.com/forums/Dickenson_County,_Virginia.pl/md/read/id/255145

http://beforeitsnews.com/election-2012/2012/11/stolen-election-evidence-is-mounting-everything-points-to-stolen-votes-2446928.html

http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/adding-up-the-evidence-to-a-stolen-election/

http://politicaloutcast.com/2012/11/allen-west-mitt-romney-and-the-massive-voter-fraud-machine/

http://www.truethevote.org/news/how-widespread-is-voter-fraud-2012-facts-figures

http://foxnewsinsider.com/tag/voter-fraud/

http://www.humanevents.com/2012/11/01/voter-fraud-is-no-myth-its-more-common-than-you-think/

http://thewillcountynews.com/?p=415

http://video.foxnews.com/v/4279497/obama-stole-election/

Also share http://www.facebookcensorship.com and see the documentation of their censorship and harassment.

Bro. Winter Christian Bible teacher http://www.prime.org
http://www.barrysoetoro.net

WHAT YOU CAN DO:

Visit the site:
http://www.ObamaVoterFraud.com/

Most of ‘Obama Voter Fraud’ activity is moving to FaceBook.
‘Obama Voter Fraud Volunteers
http://www.facebook.com/#!/ObamaVoterFraudVolunteers

‘Obama Voter Fraud’ on FaceBook-
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=488176621204089&set=a.488176614537423.110863.488173144537770&type=1&theater";;-

Sign their petition- over 99,000 and counting -cards, email
http://www.petition2congress.com/8222/petition-recount-on-2012-presidential-election/

Another petition, The ‘We The People’ petition has 60,000 signatures and counting-
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/recount-election/ZQmy0Mlv#thank-you=p


28 posted on 11/19/2012 3:33:54 PM PST by patriot08 (Native Texan)
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To: RightLady

29 posted on 11/19/2012 6:37:46 PM PST by KentTrappedInLiberalSeattle ("If you're not fiscally AND socially conservative, you're not conservative!" - Jim Robinson, 9-1-10)
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To: SeekAndFind

So, we are still analyzing fraudulent election results while not acknowledging the fraud?


30 posted on 11/19/2012 6:40:51 PM PST by riri (Plannedopolis-look it up. It's how the elites plan for US to live.)
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To: Vigilanteman

The big lie is also a form of election fraud, deceiving people is taking their votes away from them. This election was about total lies and distortions.


31 posted on 11/19/2012 8:09:20 PM PST by cradle of freedom (Long live the Republic !)
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