Posted on 12/17/2012 4:28:04 AM PST by Kaslin
FERTILITY IN AMERICA has been declining for years. According to the Pew Research Center, the nation's birth rate hit an all-time low in 2011 – just 63 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. It was almost twice as high – 123 births per 1,000 women – at the peak of the Baby Boom in 1957.
As babies and children disappear from a society, what takes their place? One answer, as journalist Jonathan V. Last observes in a forthcoming book, "What to Expect When No One's Expecting," is pets.
In surveys taken from the 1940s to the 1980s, fewer than half of Americans said they owned a pet. Today America's 300 million humans own 360 million pets. Last puts that in perspective: "American pets now outnumber American children by more than four to one." Often those pets are pampered to a degree that quite recently would have been thought eccentric. The average dog-owning household's spending on pet grooming aids, for example, more than doubled between 1998 and 2006. Last notes that when a kids' clothing store in the suburban Washington neighborhood where he used to live went out of business, it was replaced by a doggie spa – leaving the neighborhood "with six luxury pet stores and only two shops dedicated to clothing children."
A mania for pets isn't all that materializes when the birth rate sinks. So do economic stagnation, dwindling innovation, a declining lifestyle, the exploding health and pension costs of an aging population, and the ever-heavier taxes needed to maintain the government safety net when there are fewer workers and entrepreneurs. Optimism, booming markets, and technological dynamism recede, supplanted by intergenerational conflict and loneliness.
Many people, it's true, are still in the grip of the Malthusian fallacy. The superstition that that the Earth is already too full, and that more human beings will mean more hunger, misery, and environmental despoliation, is a popular one. But serious demographers, economists, and others have been warning for years that declining populations lead to shortages, misery, and upheaval.
"If you think that population decline is going to be a net boon to society," Megan McArdle writes in the Daily Beast, "take a long hard look at Greece. That's what a country looks like when it becomes inevitable that the future will be poorer than the past: social breakdown, political breakdown, economic catastrophe."
If so, Greece will have plenty of company. Fertility rates are falling everywhere. The median age in many countries is already over 40, well above the prime childbearing years. In some places, plummeting fertility can be attributed to dictatorial coercion: To enforce its "One-Child" policy, China has employed methods ranging from steep fines and loss of employment to compulsory sterilization and abortions. The results have been brutal: Hundreds of millions of births have been prevented, China's median age is at 36 and rising, and the Chinese fertility rate is now 1.54 – well below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a steady population.
But as Last points out, the fertility rate for white, college-educated American women – a proxy for the US middle class – is 1.6. "In other words, America has created its very own 'One-Child' policy. It's soft and unintentional, the result of accidents of history and thousands of little choices. But it has been just as effective."
It is hard to overstate the demographic and social transformation this represents. It wasn't that long ago that getting married and having children were life goals shared by nearly every American. For most of the 20th century, well over 90 percent of US adults married at some point in their lives – at one point the percentage went as high as 98.3 percent. Now,according to Pew, barely half of all adults in the United States – a record low – are married. And nearly 4 in 10 Americans say marriage is becoming obsolete.
And as more people choose not to marry, more of them retreat from childrearing. For decades Gallup has asked Americans what they consider the "ideal family size." From the 1940s to the 1960s, roughly 70 percent said that three or more children would be best. But beginning in the late 1960s, the American "ideal" fell sharply. Today only 33 percent of Americans regard three or more kids as desirable. And in practice, one in five American women now have no children at all.
What happens to a society that increasingly turns its back on marriage and babies? In which singlehood becomes standard, and pets outnumber kids by four to one? Ready or not, America is going to find out.
One major issue for women is what I call, “The Great Lie.”
We’re taught that we’re supposed to ‘have it all’. A great career and a well-adjusted family. This is the goal of most girls. (Although this is what they feel they *should* do, not what they really want. I read a study last year that showed that the majority of young women would choose to be SAHMs.)
So girls hold off on marriage and child-bearing. Not realizing that fertility begins to drop at age 28 and plunges rapidly after that.
A girl who marries under 22 without a college degree is scorned. A woman who gets her degree, then marries and stays home with the children is considered to be ‘wasting her degree’. Add to that the student loan burden she’s now carrying into her marriage and you’ve got instant financial problems.
The fact is that it takes time and energy to raise children. Working moms feel horrible guilt for having someone else raise her kids, but doesn’t feel like she has much of a choice.
Add to all of that the difficulty of finding a man who’s willing to marry and support a wife and children and it gets harder still. (Heck, in this economy, it’s hard to find a guy who CAN support a wife and children.) The high divorce rate gives her a sense of insecurity. She knows that she can find herself on her own - with small children depending on her alone - any time.
So women wait too long or they limit the size of their family to what they can realistically manage while working.
And one more thing: Modern parenting is insane. The expectations that your little darlings will NEVER be unattended or get into the smallest bit of trouble is daunting. Even a 14 year old getting hurt when left at home raises eyebrows. “Why weren’t you watching him?” G-d forbid your son falls out of a tree and breaks his arm.
When my 15 year old daughter fell while rollerblading and broke her arm, they called in social services. It happened in a public place with a hundred witnesses and that’s what saved our butts.
The constant threat of child abuse accusations keep every parent on edge. Lord help you if you’re homeschooling.
I have three children, and two cats, they are not mutually exclusive.
You love your kids, but your pets love you.
I never said or thought otherwise.
Although I msut admit to liking my dogs better than several of my nieces and nephews.
I never said or thought otherwise.
Although I msut admit to liking my dogs better than several of my nieces and nephews.
You can take obedience classes there--and they're not too rigorous but they are effective and fun and a social happening. On weekends Petsmart is a regular dog show. I particularly love the poodle-mixes of the politically AKC incorrect that show up. (Breeders detest mixes like labradoodles and peekapoos...it is an offense to them that people breed dogs just because...they want to!!)
And have you ever seen a shnoodle, a poodle schnauzer mix? Wow. Serious adorability.
And there are vets in many stores, a groomer that's probably a lot more convenient than your neighborhood groomer. Lots of toys and friendly people, and they have shelter giveaway programs.
Have done quite nicely with my petsmart stock, too.
You nurture a pet...and get affection and loyalty in return!! What a great deal.
You can nurture children and get contempt and indifference for your efforts. You can devote yourself to a spouse, and only get the brunt of their neuroticism. All the investments we make in people are fraught with risk, we just don't know it. We expect a return, and often don't get it. And sometimes we get dumped by the spouse for someone younger and hotter, or have our children blow our heads off. (Thinking of Adam Lanza's mom...BTW, do we ever learn about her ex husband and Adam's dad?)
So maybe our young people are looking at the divorces, the childbearing disasters, the expense and the trouble--and the potential lack of reward at the end of it all, and adopt some pets who are happy to see you when you come home.
Now, we have 4 boys ages 25 to 20 (we are a blended family)... 3 are married. I have 2 d.i.l. that "get" it... the oldest's wife is homeschooling our first grandson while pregnant with our second. Our third oldest (in Afghanistan right now) is married to his high school sweetheart.. they have no children, nor do they want any.
Our second oldest married a girl from New Jersey and they have a 1 year old daughter. When they moved down here to Texas she had A LOT to learn.. first and foremost to cover her heavy cleavage and tramp stamp in mixed company! If I've told her once I've told her a thousand times "DO NOT expect your husband to work all day long and come home and tend to the baby! That is YOUR job as a stay at home mother!" Needless to say, it's been pretty rough on her as she apparently grew up around libs and has a really hard time understanding that no, around here women take care of the home, not husbands.... I don't go to their house anymore... the filth unnerves me.
All that being said... when our youngest went to live with his dad after high school for a while and empty nest set in, I got a dog (first one ever for me).. he was a rescue. I fell in love with him and having him to "take care of" definitely made the empty nest easier. Then a few months later we got him a companion (female puppy) and now they are inseparable. Yes, I do dress her in cute little outfits and spoil them and love them dearly - they are a lot of fun! People in the neighborhood stop and look and say "hi" or laugh when we are out walking if they have on their rain boots or coats or if the female is wearing one of her little dresses or if she's in the stroller (she has heat related issues and passes out if it's hot) while the other is walking. I fashioned them up little lights for their harnesses so when we are walking in the dark they can be seen by cars and so I can find the female.. she's black after all. I really think it's a toss up as to whether or not they think I'm crazy or just enjoy seeing two spoiled dogs.
And to think I used to make fun of "those" kind of dog owners.... now I'm one too.
Not saying it was the only cause in this country but it’s still a big one. And you won’t see it discussed in the media because to do so would be admitting that they helped the establishment use children as pawns and cannon fodder and that women were manipulated to play their part.
You could watch a teevee in the 90’s for 30 minutes without hearing the words “deadbeat dad” five times so they could railroad their child support database into federal law. That the one everyone goes into in order to get a job, even if you never had kids. The same system was the blueprint romney care used to enforce their insurance mandate.
I'd want to see international comparative data before I considered that a statistically significant cause. I'm not saying it isn't, but given the percentage of children born to never-married mothers these days, the change from marital to non-marital births may be your outcome, rather than an absolute decline in births.
It takes a lot of individual decisions to drop a whole population's birthrate. We've reached below replacement in the US despite the fact that, among my friends, six or more children is common and ten is unremarkable. We and all the other religious families (Protestant, Catholic, Jewish, Moslem) are not significantly affecting the nationwide number.
I have 4 kids, so I guess I’m in the minority. Tried for more, but it didn’t happen. after 4 sons, we got a female bulldog. We joke about her being our daughter.
But that bulldog sure looks cute (A lot like my girl)
You wrote:
“Would you coerce women to have children?”
Murdering innocent babies is never a morally good choice - EVER.
“What about people who know they have genetic issues?”
Murdering innocent babies is not an answer - EVER.
“Maturity issues? Sanity issues? Economic issues?”
All irrelevant when it comes to the life of a child.
You wrote:
“Is it better to have unexpected babies?”
Yes, it is always 100% better to have an unexpected baby than to commit the mortal sin of contraception.
A lot of other countries are not as openly hostile to fathers as they are here. Can’t speak for the situation and reasoning in those countries. And the system doesn’t care about the ones who father children and vanish. Tracking them down takes work and they aren’t about work. They make up for it by treating the ones who want to raise their kids like 3rd class citizens, tracking their every move and draining every cent out of them they have.
Really the drop in birth rate is good news. It means that men in the US are not completely stupid.
“It is hard to overstate the demographic and social transformation this represents. It wasn’t that long ago that getting married and having children were life goals shared by nearly every American”
All that got changed forever in the sixties:
You wined me and dined me
When I was your girl
Promised if I’d be your wife
You’d show me the world
But all I’ve seen of this old world
Is a bed and a doctor bill
I’m tearin’ down your brooder house
‘Cause now I’ve got the pill
All these years I’ve stayed at home
While you had all your fun
And every year thats gone by
Another baby’s come
There’s a gonna be some changes made
Right here on nursery hill
You’ve set this chicken your last time
‘Cause now I’ve got the pill
This old maternity dress I’ve got
Is goin’ in the garbage
The clothes I’m wearin’ from now on
Won’t take up so much yardage
Mini skirts, hot pants
And a few little fancy frills
Yeah, I’m makin’ up for all those years
Since I’ve got the pill
I’m tired of all your crowin’
How you and your hens play
While holdin’ a couple in my arms
Another’s on the way
This chicken’s done tore up her nest
And I’m ready to make a deal
And you can’t afford to turn it down
‘Cause you know I’ve got the pill
This incubator is overused
Because you’ve kept it filled
The feelin’ good comes easy now
Since I’ve got the pill
It’s gettin’ dark, it’s roostin’ time
Tonight’s too good to be real
Oh, but daddy don’t you worry none
‘Cause mama’s got the pill
Oh, daddy don’t you worry none
‘Cause mama’s got the pill
(”The Pill” by Loretta Lynn)
Want to go back to “what was”? There’s only one way — ban contraception and restore the “forces of nature”. That will reconstruct Ms. Lynn’s “breeder house”. Probably need to ban abortion, as well.
Neither of those things is going to happen in the Western World.
What next?
“When my 15 year old daughter fell while rollerblading and broke her arm, they called in social services. It happened in a public place with a hundred witnesses and that’s what saved our butts.”
My oldest kid hurt himself in such a way that DPS could be called in. I was ready split town, drive 250 miles, and have my wife take him in (while I stayed at a hotel) - under the assumption that it’s much, much, less likely that they would have opened a case on her.
Wound up being a dislocation and it worked its way back in after a few hours...so we never took him in (even though he was screaming in pain the whole time).
I always thought my reaction was paranoid back then...I guess it wasn’t.
You wrote:
“Using birth control is now child murder???”
The Pill can be, yes. It’s an abortifacient.
Totally agree Strategerist. More and more people of my generation are definitely seeing offspring as an economic burden. It is not an American phenomenon ...it is happening in any country that is starting to see wealth of some sort creeping in. For instance I am talking about my peers in Nairobi, Kenya, who have a job earning at least 150,000 US$ per year, in the early 30s, and all of us don't have kids ...apart from a couple here and there. Yet in the rural areas, and among the poor, many kids are very normal (until about a decade ago Kenya had one of the highest birthrates in the world).
As median incomes increase the number of children goes down as more and more people put off children until a 'more convenient' time. Add to these considerations the fact that a 'proper' education (which, in my circle, is taken as having the child in a high-class private school with an international curriculum) can be quite expensive (some of the upper-tier schools in Kenya, at Grade level, can be up to US$24,000 per year per child). Then there are lifestyle considerations ...the type of car you drive is very important, as is the location you live in. In a certain demographic living in an apartment would be looked down upon, thus people opt for stand-alone houses. This has made Nairobi (capital city of Kenya) and Mombasa (second city of Kenya) as the number 1 and 2 fastest growing prime real-estate markets in the world! (Talk about a bubble - see the following links: http://edition.cnn.com/2012/06/28/business/kenya-luxury-housing-boom/index.html and http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-23765/luxury-residential-market-startling)
What does all of this mean? That among the well-to-do children have become a low priority, with most who are having kids having one (at most two, with more than that being among the truly wealthy). Yet, in the lower income echelons, many kids still remain the rule.
There is also the rise of 'SINKs' and 'DINKs' (single income no kids, and dual income no kids) set-ups, where in the case of a DINK two professional people marry and decide to not have children as a way of enhancing lifestyle.
Thus, this is a phenomenon that is being seen everywhere in the world. From the developed world; to emerging markets like (upper income) India and (wealthier places of) Brazil; and now even in (wealthier segments) of frontier economies in Africa and Asia.
The critical issues may be many, but economics and the way people view necessities from a financial perspective (i.e. the child or the nice house in a nice location) is definitely one of the big ones. The way things look it appears that the tradition of having many children has been relegated to the poor (for the most part), and (at a lower level) to those who, out of personal choice, decide to have many children. Most people in both developed/developing economies simply do not see children in the same manner that prior generations saw them, and as you mentioned the shift away from an unmechanized agricultural society changed several societal rubrics that simply shifted how children are seen by the majority.
This is why, even in staunchly Catholic countries in (say) Latin America, birth control is a given. Going forward a lot of the population growth will be amongst the poor.
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