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New Poll Shows Huge Surge in Support for Marriage Equality [retread moby zot]
Slate ^ | 3/18/13 | Daniel Politi

Posted on 03/24/2013 12:47:31 PM PDT by zigzagzoom

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1 posted on 03/24/2013 12:47:31 PM PDT by zigzagzoom
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To: zigzagzoom

Bull!

The majority of Americans do NOT support the bastardization of Marriage, to accommodate the 3% of those engaged in a deviant life style.


2 posted on 03/24/2013 12:54:20 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: zigzagzoom

Two posts on accepting sodomy as normal from an account started 12 12 2012... HomoTroll?


3 posted on 03/24/2013 12:55:15 PM PDT by plsjr (<>< what mankind "knows" is by trial and error; only the CREATOR really knows)
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To: zigzagzoom
As I've been explaining since last summer, the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed to utter nonsense.

Currently the response rate is 9%. That's such a small number a dedicated group can inform its members/adherents/coreligionists/whatever to keep on the look out for calls from pollsters ~ AND ALWAYS ANSWER THEM ~ or, alternative use their CALL BACK option.

Done in earnest a group can have its opinion AMPLIFIED 11 times.

We know National Education Association and other public employee unions, as well as the abortion industry and homosexuals (of all kinds) can be depended on to respond the same way to certain questions. If their response rate is above 9% their opinion ~ which is a minority opinion ~ will seem to the pollsters to be more than half the public response.

They are doing it already ~ then there's the problem of wealthier folks having more than one personal phone number.

4 posted on 03/24/2013 12:55:25 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: zigzagzoom

“In your face America!” - Your friends, the liberals.


5 posted on 03/24/2013 12:56:19 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Whatever happened to the land of the free, home of the brave?)
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To: zigzagzoom

This is just the communist media pulling phony polls out of their *ss and beating those incapable of thinking for themselves over the head with it 24/7/365...


6 posted on 03/24/2013 12:56:34 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (G-d saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: zigzagzoom

So, whaddaya think about that?


7 posted on 03/24/2013 12:56:48 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: G Larry

BS is right.


8 posted on 03/24/2013 12:56:56 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: zigzagzoom
Lies. But that's what liberals do.

Welcome to Free Republic.

/johnny

9 posted on 03/24/2013 12:58:42 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: G Larry

I’m with G Larry. Bull! Funny that this is all coming out today - may we call it a Talking Point? Came out on an APB email? Even with abortion being legal, support is dwindling and the fight against that horrific immorality is being won in the hearts and minds of people who know it is wrong.

So it will be with sodomy. They can rename it ‘Marriage Equality.” Oh give me a break. Let’s name it what has always been called - perversion, queer, homo, sodomy.

Bullying and pretending something is morally right that is NOT morally right do not make it so, suddenly, after 5000+ years of every society on earth considering it a perversion. Never give up the fight.


10 posted on 03/24/2013 1:03:42 PM PDT by bboop (does not suffer fools gladly)
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To: zigzagzoom
yeah, right...

11 posted on 03/24/2013 1:03:52 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: zigzagzoom; TheOldLady

JimRob’s been busy.


12 posted on 03/24/2013 1:05:54 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: zigzagzoom

Who gives a damn? The youth in this country are the godless and mindless generation, betrayed by the previous one. Their future is bleak.


13 posted on 03/24/2013 1:08:51 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Slings and Arrows
Those who think gay marriage is winning the day should review statewide election results over the last few years. Opinion polls vs. anonymous votes within the confines of an election booth are two different things.

Most want to appear open minded and with it.

14 posted on 03/24/2013 1:13:07 PM PDT by chiller (NBCNews et al is in the tank and should be embarrassed)
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To: Chode
Lol.

Love that one. She's adorable.

15 posted on 03/24/2013 1:14:42 PM PDT by Flycatcher (God speaks to us, through the supernal lightness of birds, in a special type of poetry.)
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To: muawiyah
As I've been explaining since last summer, the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed to utter nonsense.

And yet the 2012 election polling, particularly the state polls, were dead on accurate. So accurate in fact that poll aggregators, such as the NY Slimes 538 blog, got all 50 states correct in 2012. The people that were wrong were the folks that refused to believe the polling that showed Hussein being re-elected and Democrats winning most of the big competitive Senate races.

Polls are getting more accurate, not less so. The science and methodology is getting better, not worse. Obviously you need to see the poll questions on specific issues to make sure they aren't loaded to achieve a desired result, but most of these polls with neutral questions are very accurate - especially when you take an aggregate of polling for things like generic ballot, presidential approval, etc.

Even that stupid unskewed polls guy admitted the pollsters were right and he was completely wrong. It was sad watching so many conservatives buy into his BS, but at least he had the stones to admit his assumptions about polling were wrong. Dick Morris is another one that refused to believe the polling and has since admitted the turnout model the pollsters predicted was absolutely accurate and he was completely wrong.

16 posted on 03/24/2013 1:30:54 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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17 posted on 03/24/2013 1:31:47 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: Flycatcher
and hypnotizing...
18 posted on 03/24/2013 1:35:00 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -ww- NO Pity for the LAZY)
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To: zigzagzoom

zigzagzot


19 posted on 03/24/2013 1:35:37 PM PDT by CatherineofAragon (Support Christian white males---the architects of the jewel known as Western Civilization)
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To: Chode

Indeed...


20 posted on 03/24/2013 1:36:59 PM PDT by Flycatcher (God speaks to us, through the supernal lightness of birds, in a special type of poetry.)
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To: zigzagzoom
Homos actually getting married if it were to be legal will be small. See the numbers from this article from the American Thinker:

The Annulment of Same-sex Marriage By Dean Kalahar

21 posted on 03/24/2013 1:39:11 PM PDT by jonrick46 (The opium of Communists: other people's money.)
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To: Longbow1969
When the PEW report came out in May all the smart pollsters took appropriate action ~ first, they began EXCLUDING all responses where there was any question about the age of the respondent. They added other questions ~ a sort of test ~ which indicated the respondent might not be the type they were after.

Although you'd think getting as many responses as possible would be the game when you are down to an average of 9% responding, the counter-intuitive move is to CLEAN UP THE RESPONSES YOU DO GET ~ lot of garbage in there.

Their other move was to apply right-reason to the responses ~

I suggest you do the same here with the POST ABC polls. They are trying to tell you things really changed all at once ~ on a long term policy issue concerning human tradition (And probably biological inclination) ~ and that's just always wrong. This particular poll is more like push polling ~ but with even less value.

22 posted on 03/24/2013 1:44:51 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Longbow1969

Couldn’t agree more with your polling opinion. I do get a little tired of people ignoring the polling by just calling it names. Polling is a tool. Should polling show that you are behind you have to change minds not bury your head in the sand screaming lalalalala.


23 posted on 03/24/2013 1:45:56 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: chopperjc

See my post above ~ he’s wrong.


24 posted on 03/24/2013 1:48:03 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah

Sorry, you’re wrong. Of course we could go back and forth but the proof is in the results. Turns out the election polls done by anyone not named Rasmussen or Gallup were very close.


25 posted on 03/24/2013 1:53:28 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: zigzagzoom
..what is that...sniff...haze in the air...from...a ZIG-ZAG???...zzzoooooommm!!!

ibtz

26 posted on 03/24/2013 1:55:27 PM PDT by Fightin Whitey
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To: zigzagzoom

And the majority of Muslims agree that Israel should be pushed into the sea.

Gays already have equal rights to everyone else in society. You are pushing for the right to dictate your mental illness and disease on the whole of society.

That is very creepy top down social engineering which ignores the freedom of thought and religion.


27 posted on 03/24/2013 1:57:16 PM PDT by SaraJohnson
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To: chopperjc
No, that's not the correlation at all. The guys whose polls looked correct FIXED their data to move it toward the trendlines they'd been developing all season ~ a number of them have described the steps they took to clean the data ~ Gallup ruined itself early on by asking every respondent about their sexual orientation. As word got out on that the gay guys and gals made sure they answered every call from a pollster.

Romney's internal polls ~ for which he paid a fortune ~ may have misled him with Mormons and rich people answering every call from every pollster!

28 posted on 03/24/2013 2:07:08 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
They are trying to tell you things really changed all at once

Yes, sometimes public opinion changes on an issue fairly dramatically - and in a short period of time. You do realize this is not just an American phenomenon, right? I just made this point to someone earlier, the Pope himself (when he was an archbiship)lost this issue in overwhelmingly Catholic Argentina. That happened in 2010. 10 years prior and he would probably have won that fight. Opinions changed dramatically - just as they have in much of Europe. The left has fought for cultural dominance throughout the West.

Although you'd think getting as many responses as possible would be the game when you are down to an average of 9% responding, the counter-intuitive move is to CLEAN UP THE RESPONSES YOU DO GET ~ lot of garbage in there.

What does all this have to do with my point? You claimed polling was increasingly inaccurate, I said you were completely wrong and used the 2012 election as an example. I mean, there is really no debate here. Polling was right. Conservatives that disputed polling and the models behind it have since acknowledged they were wrong. Polling is getting more accurate, not less.

on a long term policy issue concerning human tradition (And probably biological inclination)

Dude, the polling isn't asking whether people are gay, it's asking whether people support homo marriage. A majority 10 years ago didn't, now they do. It isn't that hard to believe considering we've seen the same shifts in public opinion throughout Europe and in other places - such as the example of Argentina that I used.

I make this point a lot, but it really is important. Refusing to believe political realities makes it even harder for us going forward. People that are refusing to believe the polls or claiming we are only losing because of voter fraud are simply burying their heads in the sand.

The left has essentially completely taken over the education, media and entertainment establishments. Conservatives ceded these important areas that shape culture, and the result is shifts in the way people view these important social issues. It's not a shock. More and more conservatives like Breitbart (God rest his soul) realized this and were taking the fight to the left on the ground they've so dominated. That's what we need to do more of going forward.

29 posted on 03/24/2013 2:09:23 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: muawiyah

As much as this pains me ppp was consistent and on the number all through the cycle blowing your theory up.


30 posted on 03/24/2013 2:12:11 PM PDT by chopperjc
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To: All; zigzagzoom
[retread moby zot]

LOL! Guess he zigged when he should have zagged cuz he zoomed outta here.

31 posted on 03/24/2013 2:18:41 PM PDT by jazusamo ("Mercy to the guilty is cruelty to the innocent." -- Adam Smith)
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To: muawiyah
The guys whose polls looked correct FIXED their data to move it toward the trendlines they'd been developing all season

What is this gibberish? We had thousands upon thousands of state and tracking polls that showed the same thing throughout the 2012 campaign. It was fairly consistent, and Nate Silver's model (just an example) was aggregating the polls and providing statistical odds the entire way through. Obama was winning, all the way through the campaign - and the polling showed this clearly. Romney got a bump after the first debate, but it was never enough. The polls are a matter of record. You could go back to RCP and look at them. Nobody changed them after the fact. We lost by 5 million votes man, it really wasn't all that close. The folks on our side that disputed the polls have largely admitted they were wrong, why can't you?

Your point that I responded to was the following:

As I've been explaining since last summer, the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed to utter nonsense.

And that's just wrong. You shouldn't have been saying this since last summer because it's utter nonsense.

32 posted on 03/24/2013 2:18:54 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: zigzagzoom

Do you like old movies about gladiators?

Have you ever been to a Turkish bathhouse?

Do you own a rubber chicken? Do you call him Bob?


33 posted on 03/24/2013 2:50:29 PM PDT by Gator113 ( ~just keep livin~)
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To: G Larry

It lightens my heart to think that this is true, regarding the state of support for sodomy but whether this is or is not the case. Marriage as an institution is affectingly dead in our popular culture.

The problem is simple in popular culture the primary propose of ‘marriage’ is now to express an emotion not commit to raising one particular family.

This is not marriage as he institution was for thousands of years, and this union whatever it should be call instead has no need for the legal bonds of true matrimony either.

After all if “love” is the foundation of marriage then when when people fall out of love logically they should fall out of marriage.

But when family is the foundation as it was for thousands of years the marriage is binding so long as there are children.

Remember what you know of history and tell me which of theses explication’s adds up more with the facts and rules of historic marriages.

In any event popular couture’s concept of marriage as defined by “love” is an effectily pointless institution deserving no respect or family support.


34 posted on 03/24/2013 3:31:11 PM PDT by Monorprise
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To: zigzagzoom
B.$.
look @ the "$ource"

35 posted on 03/24/2013 3:38:17 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (who'll take tomorrow,$pend it all today;who can take your income,tax it all away..0'Blowfly can :-)
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To: Monorprise

Pop culture doesn’t rule my world, and the MSM promotion of it doesn’t change reality.

To suggest that it is inevitable that society will cave to it’s most base instincts and it is futile to resist is NOT the way I choose to approach life.

If society is to crumble then I intend to be the last man standing, not the first one caving.


36 posted on 03/24/2013 3:44:04 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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A fecal poll.


37 posted on 03/24/2013 3:45:42 PM PDT by Gene Eric (The Palin Doctrine.)
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To: Slings and Arrows; darkwing104; 50mm; TheOldLady
...and don't forget: darkwing104;50mm

I really "DO" love the smell of "OZONE" in the morning anytime. 8-D

38 posted on 03/24/2013 3:48:40 PM PDT by skinkinthegrass (who'll take tomorrow,$pend it all today;who can take your income,tax it all away..0'Blowfly can :-)
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To: G Larry
Aren't these are the same polls we like, back a decade ago, when the results were much more to our liking?

You can stick your head in the sand if you want, but this is most likely the case. You can debate WHY its been happening, but the results are there. It has been a very successful propaganda campaign by the Left, and I think they have won on this one.

Sometimes, you have to pick your fights, and I dont think this one will work for us.

39 posted on 03/24/2013 4:18:47 PM PDT by Paradox (Unexpected things coming for the next few years.)
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To: Longbow1969

http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/09/30/we-are-the-91-only-9-of-americans-cooperate-with-pollsters/ This is a brief on the PEW report on the matter ~ may be written at a comprehension level you can deal with. If you can understand this then you may on to the PEW report itself. THIS WAS PUBLISHED LAST MAY ~ the fact you are unaware of it is suggestive of your being a rustic when it comes to statistical analysis.


40 posted on 03/24/2013 5:43:32 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: chopperjc
A knowledgeable poster knows what to do with funky data ~ it's a process more akin to augury than to statistical analysis but if it works, it works.

Remember, in a large group there'll always be somebody who is more nearly correct than the others.

41 posted on 03/24/2013 5:50:22 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
the fact you are unaware of it is suggestive of your being a rustic when it comes to statistical analysis.

Why are you obsessing about this? 9% cooperation rate is obviously plenty enough for scientific polling - especially polling that gets the right combination of land line and mobiles. We know this by how accurate it's proven to be in recent elections - despite what people like yourself claim.

I've given you a clear example in the 2012 elections of how accurate polling has become. The state polls, in particular, painted a highly accurate picture. An aggregate of the state polls produced a perfect 50 state prediction rate from people like Nate Silver. Conservative analysts who disputed the polls such as the Dick Morris, that ridiculous "unskewed polls" guy, etc, have admitted they were wrong and the polls and their methodology/models were right.

You're claim that the use of polling to determine public opinion has collapsed is downright silly.

42 posted on 03/24/2013 6:00:51 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
The very backbone of public opinion survey systems has been the idea that you could actually inquire of enough people in a properly structured environment that you could approach randomness.

Alas, a 9% response rate creates a condition where a group smaller than the entire population can, with little effort beyond calling each other on their cellphones, make sure that THEIR opinion is substituted for the TOTAL POPULATION sampled.

That's no longer a random sample ~ END OF STORY. That's when you must turn to other methods.

It doesn't surprise me at all to find political types ready to give up random selection ~ they never did really like it did they.

43 posted on 03/24/2013 6:07:15 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: muawiyah
Alas, a 9% response rate creates a condition where a group smaller than the entire population can, with little effort beyond calling each other on their cellphones, make sure that THEIR opinion is substituted for the TOTAL POPULATION sampled.

That's no longer a random sample ~ END OF STORY. That's when you must turn to other methods.

Yes, I get that this is your theory. The problem for you is your theory has been proven wrong. You only need look back to November to see that. There was more polling than ever before leading in to the 2012 election and it proved to be extremely accurate. You seem to be avoiding this fact. The state polling, in particular, was amazingly accurate - especially if you used an aggregate of the polls. I don't know how many times I have to say this. I think he's a snot nosed little liberal jerk, but Nate Silver (and others like him) who based their predictions on the polls got it right. In the case of 538 blog and others like it, they got all 50 states right. People like Dick Morris, Barone, etc, who rejected the polls got it wrong - and had to admit as much after the election.

44 posted on 03/24/2013 6:53:52 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: Longbow1969
Some people are easily fooled by professional pollsters. They didn't accept the data they collected as is ~ they filtered it according to a number of standards to make sure they got the answer they wanted.

They'll tell you how they dealt with the problem ~ that being the loss of randomnessin the process.

BTW, that's not a 'theory' ~ W. Edwards Deming had a corollary to the problem of declining responses or selections ~ that is, that the more samples you take over a long enough period of time, the closer you get to random selection ~ which means that the fellows with the month after month, week after week, day after day recurring samples of population where they asked the same question actually approached randomness ~ but not for a specific day, or a specific week, or even a specific month ~ those who took static highly stratified surveys could not possibly make enough sample selections to manage the flow of data. They'd never approach randomness in the process.

The point being that the only way to beat the small minority effect is to increase your total sample size into at least 11 times as you've ever planned on doing for a given situation.

If you were doing 1000 calls, you'd need to do 11,000 calls. If you had a multi-question, multi-issue sort of poll or survey, you could easily find yourself needing to do over 100,000 samples just to maintain randomness and to overcome the small minority effect.

Maybe some of them tried that ~ I've been listening closely and no one to my knowledge has come forward and volunteered such information.

45 posted on 03/24/2013 7:23:25 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Paradox

“I dont think this one will work for us.”

Not if that attitude prevails.


46 posted on 03/24/2013 7:42:58 PM PDT by G Larry (Which of Obama's policies do you think I'd support if he were white?)
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To: Slings and Arrows
ZOT post by Jim is on the other thread.

And my ZOT post is also on that thread.

47 posted on 03/24/2013 7:44:14 PM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: muawiyah
Some people are easily fooled by professional pollsters. They didn't accept the data they collected as is ~ they filtered it according to a number of standards to make sure they got the answer they wanted.

What is this? You're just babbling and hoping to bluff your way through this debate? Who's fooled? Conservatives that didn't believe the polls leading into November 2012 and had to admit they were wrong and the polls were right?

Man, you are not smarter than all these pollsters when it comes to methodology. You read a few articles and think you know what you're talking about, yet the poll results speak for themselves. These folks know their business pretty well - and are getting better and better at it.

You're STILL avoiding the fact that the 2012 election proves you wrong. The polls were very accurate - especially the state polls. And an aggregate of those polls, as evidenced by statisticians like Nate Silver, allowed him to predict all 50 states correctly. Almost all the polls showed Obama winning, and he won. The state polls painted an ever clearer picture in forecasting an Obama victory AND strong Democratic Senate victories. There were many conservatives, for example, that didn't believe the polls that showed Akin, Mourdoch, etc, losing. Yet they all lost just like the polls said they would.

The point being that the only way to beat the small minority effect is to increase your total sample size into at least 11 times as you've ever planned on doing for a given situation.

Look, you can drone on and on about your theory, but it's just wrong. The response rate is good enough for polling to be accurate. Obviously not every poll is trustworthy as some of them use loaded questions to achieve a result, but basic generic ballot questions, presidential approval, x versus y, etc, are extremely accurate (especially when you can generate an aggregate of polls). We know some polling, such as primary polling, is tough to do and the margin of error is often greater than normal. In the end though, the science and methodology behind polling has come a long way and the results are very accurate. As I keep saying, you only need go back to the 2012 election to see that.

48 posted on 03/24/2013 7:44:55 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: TheOldLady

And I enjoyed both thoroughly.


49 posted on 03/24/2013 7:45:29 PM PDT by Slings and Arrows (You can't have IngSoc without an Emmanuel Goldstein.)
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To: Slings and Arrows

You’re my sweetie!


50 posted on 03/24/2013 7:46:30 PM PDT by TheOldLady
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