Retail sales unexpectedly fall in March

reuters ^ | 4/12/2013 | staff

[tobyhill]

Retail sales contracted in March for the second time in three months, a sign the American economy may have stumbled at the end of the first quarter.

Retail sales fell 0.4 percent during the month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. That was below analysts' expectations that sales would be flat.

Readings for retail sales have been volatile so far this year, making it difficult to know whether the weakness in March was due to a tax hike that went into effect at the start of the year or to temporary factors related to the weather.

Retail sales advanced 1 percent in February, according to revised readings from the government.

Stripping out cars, gasoline and building materials, sales fell 0.2 percent in March. This core measure corresponds closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. The government revised lower past core retail sales figures to show a 0.3 percent gain in February and flat sales in January.

[Resettozero]

You’re right.

[Gaffer]

Like I said, EARLY! Lunchtime is for those that get to see empty shelves. The stuff I get is gone before 7:15 AM....(they start selling at 7:00AM)

[Resettozero]

I guess I meant those who control the printed/broadcast news, but who knew?

[andy58-in-nh]

I know - but I can’t do that on working days. On the weekends though, I sometimes station myself outside before the local sport shop’s doors open, along with a small crowd of others. They usually have fresh .45, 22LR and 9mm... and... it’s gone. It is unbelievable what’s happening to this country.

[Wyatt's Torch]

The print/broadcast news don’t make the forecasts...

[Wyatt's Torch]

Analysis from Calculated Risk:

Retail Sales decline 0.4% in March

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.4% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8% from March 2012. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $418.3 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month, but 2.8 percent above March 2012. ... The January to February 2013 percent change was revised from +1.1 percent to +1.0 percent (±0.2%).

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for January were revised down too.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 26.2% from the bottom, and now 11.2% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.4%. Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.2%.

Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 23.5% from the bottom, and now 10.4% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThe second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 3.3% on a YoY basis (2.8% for all retail sales).

This was below the consensus forecast of no change in retail sales. Lower gasoline prices subtracted from retail sales - after boosting sales in February.

[Wyatt's Torch]

I guess I meant those who control the printed/broadcast news, but who knew?

Upon reading this a second time I would certainly agree that their reporting of it is biased. No argument from me there.

[Right Brother]

It’s always “unexpectedly.” Will they ever admit that they’re not good at predicting?

It's not about predicting poorly, it's about spin. Odd that we never heard the word 'unexpected' associated with bad economic news during the Bush administration.

[Disambiguator]

Retail sales unexpectedly fall in March

Drink!

[COBOL2Java]

The MSM slipped and blamed the cold weather for the decline in sales.

That's impossible! Al Gore told us the polar bears are drowning because of global warming!

[mykroar]

What would sales be if you excluded ammo?

[Gaffer]

Probably lower.....I know I’ve been pushing it hard on spending for ammo. I try to make sure it’s not for inflated prices so I don’t buy from CTD or other places that get up to 3-4 times what the ammo is worth...it’s why I go to WM...they haven’t raised prices except for what ammo mfrs pass on.....a month ago there I got 420 rds in a steel ammo can of XM855LC SS109 penetrator ammo for $175....CTD was selling that for over a dollar a round.

[LostInBayport]

It’s always “unexpectedly.” Will they ever admit that they’re not good at predicting?

I don't think it is a failure to predict. They fully expect their flawed, destructive socialist policies to work and are honestly shocked time and again when they don't. Liberals are truly insane.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Here's another view of Retail Sales back to 1998:

[BlueYonder]

Well, it must be that the news media knows better than anyone else - especially the millions who've dropped out of the labor force and have quit looking for jobs - that the economy is doing amazingly well. It's no wonder then that news like this of it being less than perfect is unexpected. It's just their honest acknowledgment that it's an aberration. /sarc

[Resettozero]

The print/broadcast news don’t make the forecasts...

Oh yes they do. By controlling the wording of the economic forecasts they choose to report and choosing which reports they bury. And by inserting descriptive and leading words such as "unexpectedly" in the headlines and broadcast news teasers, even if the actual forecast doesn't say that.

It's evident that one of us has more respect for media neutrality than the other one. And one who doesn't...worked in broadcast/print 40 years.

[Wyatt's Torch]

Read my post #27

[Resettozero]

Read my post #27.

I did, before replying to another of your posts. I comprehend what you are saying and you're right.

-30-

[TheOldLady]

Click the Tree

We wish it grew there

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