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Climate Expert von Storch: Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?
Der Spiegel ^ | June 20, 2013 | Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter

Posted on 06/20/2013 1:38:51 PM PDT by neverdem

Climate experts have long predicted that temperatures would rise in parallel with greenhouse gas emissions. But, for 15 years, they haven't. In a SPIEGEL interview, meteorologist Hans von Storch discusses how this "puzzle" might force scientists to alter what could be "fundamentally wrong" models.

SPIEGEL: Mr. Storch, Germany has recently seen major flooding. Is global warming the culprit?

Storch: I'm not aware of any studies showing that floods happen more often today than in the past. I also just attended a hydrologists' conference in Koblenz, and none of the scientists there described such a finding.

SPIEGEL: But don't climate simulations for Germany's latitudes predict that, as temperatures rise, there will be less, not more, rain in the summers?

Storch: That only appears to be contradictory. We actually do expect there to be less total precipitation during the summer months. But there may be more extreme weather events, in which a great deal of rain falls from the sky within a short span of time. But since there has been only moderate global warming so far, climate change shouldn't be playing a major role in any case yet.

SPIEGEL: Would you say that people no longer reflexively attribute every severe weather event to global warming as much as they once did?

Storch: Yes, my impression is that there is less hysteria over the climate. There are certainly still people who almost ritualistically cry, "Stop thief! Climate change is at fault!" over any natural disaster. But people are now talking much more about the likely causes of flooding, such as land being paved over or the disappearance of natural flood zones -- and that's a good thing.

SPIEGEL: Will the greenhouse effect be an issue in the upcoming German parliamentary elections? Singer Marius Müller-Westernhagen is leading a celebrity initiative calling...

(Excerpt) Read more at spiegel.de ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: climatechange; climatechangehoax; globalwanking; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; hotaircult

1 posted on 06/20/2013 1:38:51 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

This is why the alarmists no longer talk about Global Warming. Now it is Global Climate Change.

Global Climate Change is so much more flexible than Global Cooling or Global Warming were.

Is it warmer today than average? It is because of Global Climate Change.

Is it cooler today than average? It is because of Global Climate Change.

Is it wetter, dryer, windier, less windy, cloudier, less cloudy? It doesn’t matter! Whatever the weather happens to be, it is because of Global Climate Change.

It is all Bush’s fault. The only hope we have is to tax and spend more!


2 posted on 06/20/2013 1:43:36 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: neverdem

Because when things get hotter, they give off more heat.

That causes heat to be lost (for the earth, to space).

As water is absorbed into the atmosphere, it forms more clouds, which increases the earths reflectivity, reducing the heat absorbed from the sun.

As carbon dioxide increases, plants grow faster.

Feedback loops lead to non-linear processes, so any non-trivial attempts to predict the future from the past are doomed to fail


3 posted on 06/20/2013 1:46:04 PM PDT by donmeaker (Blunderbuss: A short weapon, ... now superceded in civilized countries by more advanced weaponry.)
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To: neverdem

“Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?”

Oh, oh, I know it’s because we are not spending enough money on research and not destroying industries and putting people out of work fast enough!


4 posted on 06/20/2013 1:46:26 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: neverdem

“might force scientists to alter what could be “fundamentally wrong” models.”

“might force scientists to alter what are “delusional thinking” models.”

Fixed it.


5 posted on 06/20/2013 1:46:38 PM PDT by Rennes Templar (Mr. President, can you hear a special prosecutor now?)
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To: neverdem

But don’t climate simulations do what the programmer wants it to do


6 posted on 06/20/2013 1:47:10 PM PDT by molson209
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To: neverdem

“Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?”

I’ll take what is reality for $500 Alex.


7 posted on 06/20/2013 1:47:52 PM PDT by Mastador1 (I'll take a bad dog over a good politician any day!)
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To: molson209

How about because it deos not exist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


8 posted on 06/20/2013 1:48:02 PM PDT by Conserev1 ("Still Clinging to my Bible and my Weapon")
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To: neverdem

Here is the idiocy on full display:

“SPIEGEL: What could be wrong with the models?
Storch: There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO , have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.”

TO THESE BUFFOONS, IT’S “UNPLEASANT” THERE IS NO CRISIS. TO THE REST OF US, IT’S GOOD. THE BUFFOONS CARE ONLY ABOUT PROMOTING A CRISIS; WE CARE ABOUT REALITY. GOD I hate these idiots!


9 posted on 06/20/2013 1:51:45 PM PDT by Ancient Wonderboy
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To: neverdem

Because it’s bullsh*t


10 posted on 06/20/2013 1:51:54 PM PDT by Spruce
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To: neverdem

11 posted on 06/20/2013 1:53:29 PM PDT by lowbridge
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To: neverdem

They are really starting to backpedal, aren’t they?


12 posted on 06/20/2013 1:58:52 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: colorado tanker

heard on news today that this spring is the 8th warmest in last 100 yrs. that is hard for me to believe. it has been a very mild if not cool spring in my area.


13 posted on 06/20/2013 2:34:20 PM PDT by my right
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To: neverdem

Because they were making up data when what they collected did not support their predetermined results. IOW they lie like rugs/RATs/Muslims.

We’ve warmed out of the last ice age over the past 12-15,000 years and we may have reached the peak point, or maybe not. But we can’t do a thing to affect it anyway.


14 posted on 06/20/2013 2:39:41 PM PDT by JimRed (Excise the cancer before it kills us; feed &water the Tree of Liberty! TERM LIMITS, NOW & FOREVER!)
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To: neverdem
My favorite line from the interview:

SPIEGEL: That sounds quite embarrassing for your profession, if you have to go back and adjust your models to fit with reality…

Yes, embarrassing, indeed, to have to make one's model fit with reality. Heh.

15 posted on 06/20/2013 2:50:02 PM PDT by BfloGuy (The Eurozone policy might best be described as "Laurel and Hardy Carry a Piano Upstairs.")
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To: neverdem
There are certainly still people who almost ritualistically cry, "Stop thief! Climate change is at fault!" over any natural disaster. But people are now talking much more about the likely causes of flooding, such as land being paved over or the disappearance of natural flood zones -- and that's a good thing.

Yes, here in the Philippines the "greens" are always preaching climate change and green stuff (just ignore those people in the Manila slums who fled from their eco friendly farms where they lived in extreme poverty).

but now, ordinary thunderstorms are making Manila's streets flood...the problem? lack of proper sewers, and those that exist tend to fill with debris and garbage...

And then there is the "posh" neighborhoods built below sea level against the zoning law...a little "gift" will let you build in dangerous areas.

16 posted on 06/20/2013 3:17:56 PM PDT by LadyDoc (liberals only love politically correct poor people)
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To: Ancient Wonderboy
There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us.

I guess the third explanation, that your models are crap and there is no man-made greenhouse effect, is just inconceivable.


17 posted on 06/20/2013 3:18:10 PM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (The Obamanation Continues)
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To: Ancient Wonderboy
“and neither is very pleasant for us”

It's VERY unpleasant that the giant catastrophes predicted by the Global Warming grifters are not going to befall us.

If ONLY a worldwide famine would happen during an unusual warm spell.

If ONLY the temperature would rise like in that Twilight Zone where everyone was hot, but it turned out to actually be cold—either way we would win because it would be a disaster!

If ONLY everyone’s freedoms and money was taken away so that we, the elite, could pretend that man made Climate Change was real and we alone could survive.

...but now our dreams of destruction and misery are dashed....it's a terrible day for all the AGW promoting “scientists”.

18 posted on 06/20/2013 3:26:41 PM PDT by PATRIOT1876 (The only crimes that are 100% preventable are crimes committed by illegal aliens)
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To: BfloGuy
* Yes, embarrassing, indeed, to have to make one’s model fit with reality. *

Reality is the biggest threat to global warming.

19 posted on 06/20/2013 3:28:30 PM PDT by PATRIOT1876 (The only crimes that are 100% preventable are crimes committed by illegal aliens)
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To: neverdem
I thought this guy sounded ok, for the most part, till the last question:

SPIEGEL: Are there findings related to global warming that worry you?

Storch: The potential acidification of the oceans due to CO2 entering them from the atmosphere. This is a phenomenon that seems sinister to me, perhaps in part because I understand too little about it. But if marine animals are no longer able to form shells and skeletons well, it will affect nutrient cycles in the oceans. And that certainly makes me nervous.

20 posted on 06/20/2013 3:30:58 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Obama's Enemies List - Yes, you are a crook.)
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To: neverdem

“Why Is Global Warming Stagnating?”

When science prostitutes itself to government funding, then what the people who sit on grant approval committees want is what gets funded. These people tend to be socialists and they cater to fellow socialists. When ideology trumps truth, and science itself stagnates.

If this seems to strong, it doesn’t take too much effort to find numerous quotes where government-funded “scientists” have called for severe sanctions on anyone who disagreed with their “consensus”. Even the very idea that a “consensus” establishes something as fact should disqualify the WHOLE LOT OF THEM.


21 posted on 06/20/2013 3:37:53 PM PDT by theBuckwheat
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To: neverdem

see:

Comparing climate models – Part One
Guest Essay by Geoffrey H Sherrington

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/20/comparing-climate-models-part-one/

and this graphic comparison:
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/clip_image0023.jpg


22 posted on 06/20/2013 3:40:24 PM PDT by theBuckwheat
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To: neverdem

Is someone here up to speed on the Atlantic Multidecadal (?) Oscillation, and its current prediction of global atmospheric temperature trends?


23 posted on 06/20/2013 3:40:28 PM PDT by Elsiejay
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To: neverdem

Climate change fanatics have overplayed their lies. Even when a pop punk like Obama goes to Germany to talk climate change, people thumb their nose. Sure, some of it was because Obama speaks worse than a drunk crackhead, but people are tired of climate lies.


24 posted on 06/20/2013 4:08:25 PM PDT by pallis
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To: my right
Given what Europe experienced that couldn't be a worldwide number.

We had a cool and wet early summer. Several Rockies games were snowed out.

We hear stats like that every year it seems. Personally, I think they play with the numbers to yield that result. There has been no significant warming for the last 15 years, but every year they claim the latest is the warmest on record. That just doesn't compute.

25 posted on 06/20/2013 4:13:04 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: neverdem
That only appears to be contradictory.

That only appears to be contradictory.

That only appears to be contradictory.

That only appears to be contradictory.

That only appears to be contradictory.

26 posted on 06/20/2013 6:06:46 PM PDT by Izzy Dunne (Hello, I'm a TAGLINE virus. Please help me spread by copying me into YOUR tag line.)
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To: theBuckwheat
When science prostitutes itself to government funding, then what the people who sit on grant approval committees want is what gets funded. These people tend to be socialists and they cater to fellow socialists. When ideology trumps truth, and science itself stagnates.

It is not the people who sit on grant committees who are the problem, because they are ordinary scientists who are asked to sit on the committees and flown in from all over the country to do this. They typically have several publications on the specific topic of the grants, and so are considered experts in their fields.

The problem here is squarely on the shoulders of the politicians. Politicians for the last century have been trying one scheme after another to shove socialism and authoritarian control down our throats, and we have, for the most part, rejected. Then along came the hypothesis of "anthropogenic global warming" (AGW) that gave those politicians a new angle with which to impose totalitarianism. This time, they can claim that the earth will die unless they get their way! And those politicians thought that funding research in "global warming" (not just climate) would further their goals. So they directed how the research monies would be allocated. The scientists on the grant committees choose the grant proposals that get funded (based on scientific merit, potential to generate new information, etc.) but the politicians told them the subjects that would get funded.

The politically directed disbursement of grant monies led to the situation where scientists whose work was in an area other than AGW didn't get funding. And scientists in many fields stuck the phrase "because of global warming" in their proposals for completely unrelated studies because it increased their chances of funding.

The bulk of scientific research, especially the "basic" research, is funded by the government, and that situation is not likely to change. The scope of privately funded research is typically very narrow--for example, a foundation dedicated to researching prostate cancer will not fund mitochondrial function research. Scientists who want more freedom to choose a research area usually turn to the government.

27 posted on 06/21/2013 3:56:43 AM PDT by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
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To: VeniVidiVici
The potential acidification of the oceans due to CO2 entering them from the atmosphere. This is a phenomenon that seems sinister to me, perhaps in part because I understand too little about it. But if marine animals are no longer able to form shells and skeletons well, it will affect nutrient cycles in the oceans.

Mollusks make their shells out of calcium carbonate. That is, they pull CO2 out of the water to make the calcium carbonate. Also, where the oceans get warmer, they hold less CO2 (not more) because gases are less soluble in warmer liquids than in cold. I would say that if acidification processes are impeding shell formation, we need to look for the source of the acid... probably industrial run-off.

28 posted on 06/21/2013 4:03:17 AM PDT by exDemMom (Now that I've finally accepted that I'm living a bad hair life, I'm more at peace with the world.)
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To: VeniVidiVici
I was talking to a guy and his wife, both Californians, about climate change. He told me that we’ve lost 80% of our coral reefs. Keep in mind he’s a wealthy, retired executive who claimed to spend “five hours a day” studying the climate now that he’s got the time.

So I asked for some examples. He said that the Great Barrier reef has lost 30% of it’s coral reef due to manmade global warming. He went on to describe the 2nd largest barrier reef system as also down 30%. You’d think he could do the math and see that at most we’ve lost 30%, unless other reefs are down to zero.

The entire conversation was like this. Then the thirty-something marine biologist who is studying the effects of global climate change on corals chimes in to his defense. I asked her what’s your baseline? She answered, “Everybody knows...” I pressed her for specifics. I mean she’s a scientist and studying it all. She simply got more and more exasperated and looked like a cornered animal. As if she’d never considered the alternative, I mean she’s got the funding, right?

In the end she said that a baseline doesn’t matter because she’s just studying the effects. I changed the subject.

29 posted on 06/21/2013 11:49:57 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: neverdem
Pity that scientists are no longer trained to act as scientists.

This utterance from Storch made me laugh:
Unfortunately, some scientists behave like preachers, delivering sermons to people. What this approach ignores is the fact that there are many threats in our world that must be weighed against one another. If I’m driving my car and find myself speeding toward an obstacle, I can’t simply yank the wheel to the side without first checking to see if I’ll instead be driving straight into a crowd of people. Climate researchers cannot and should not take this process of weighing different factors out of the hands of politics and society. …
Only some scientists?
30 posted on 06/23/2013 12:26:09 PM PDT by Olog-hai
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To: Bubba_Leroy

Global climate change is immeasurable. It’s a liberal’s innumerate fantasy writ large.


31 posted on 06/29/2013 2:39:30 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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