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Would the U.S. Still Lose the Naval War of 2015?
Real Clear Defense ^ | July 2, 2013 | Harry Kazianis

Posted on 07/08/2013 1:48:59 PM PDT by neverdem

Over the last few days I have begun the exhausting, yet wonderful process of moving. Considering the fact I have not moved in twelve years and I am relocating from a suburban single-family home to a small apartment urban setting in Washington D.C. I have some tough decisions to make on what to keep and what to trash.

In going through my endless collection of foreign policy, national security and defense articles (I print everything) I found quite the gem that needless to say made the save box. Instead of cleaning out our soon-to-be former home, I decided to take a small break (please don't tell my wife) and travel down memory lane.

The article in question is one you may know. From the Winter 2010 edition of Orbis, James Kraska's "How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015" was always a piece that I have gone back to over and over again. In fact, the article was one that sparked my interest in anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) and the DF-21D. Several years back, myself and fellow CSIS:PACNET WSD Handa scholar Daryl Morini had planned to write a follow-up piece -- but alas -- other projects always seemed to get in the way (I am still willing if you are my friend!).

The article creates a fictional scenario where China "sinks" a U.S. carrier. The scenario itself is rather, well, interesting:

"Americans woke up to a different world the day after the attack. The war was over almost as soon as it had started. Outmaneuvered tactically and strategically, the United States suffered its greatest defeat at sea since Pearl Harbor. The incident—could it really be called a 'war'?—had been preceded by a shallow diplomatic crisis between the two great powers. No one in the West expected the dispute to..."...

(Excerpt) Read more at realcleardefense.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: china
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To: Yo-Yo
Think the battlewagon at lower right might be the USS New York .... tho' I don't ever recall reading that she was expended in the Bikini tests.

IJNS Nagato and USS Saratoga and Nevada were so expended, and the German cruiser Prinz Eugen, which survived the war, was sunk in a test at, ummm, I think Kwajalein and is upside down in the lagoon -- reachable by divers who are warned off because Prinz Eugen was sunk with a full load of ordnance (now aging and untrustworthy).

61 posted on 07/08/2013 5:22:57 PM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: SampleMan

Well-stated; spent 10 years on a CVN, two CGs and a DDG. So-called ‘experts’ have next to zero knowledge of just how formidable these platforms are unless they’ve been there for more than an overnight visit.


62 posted on 07/08/2013 5:33:22 PM PDT by GreyHoundSailor
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To: Iron Munro

After the last 2 elections the political winds have gone about as UGLY as possible.


63 posted on 07/08/2013 6:52:34 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Yo-Yo

Actually, most of those vessels were not sunk in that particular exercise. In addition, our battle groups in war time and exercises and on patrol are not all bunched up like that either. Many of the vessels are miles and miles apart.

And with todays NBC capabilities, we would be able to clean them off and keep fighting.

Hitting a battle group at sea is not an easy task...the oceans are large and the ability to detect, track, target and then launch on and reacquire once the warhead re-enters is not something any other country can really do at this point.

And China would be foolish to open that can of worms. They do have a relative few nuclear missiles capable of hitting our shores...and they would do great damage if they got through the AEGIS BMD and the Land-based BMD.

But what China would get in return would be absolute annihilation.


64 posted on 07/08/2013 8:26:21 PM PDT by Jeff Head
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To: Thorliveshere

Yeah, but we run from Somali pirates in dinghies—


65 posted on 07/08/2013 8:49:28 PM PDT by Mamzelle
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To: Mamzelle
Yeah, but we run from Somali pirates in dinghies—

Okay... I could be wrong
66 posted on 07/08/2013 9:28:35 PM PDT by Thorliveshere (Tais deau sá taghdedaul!)
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To: wardaddy; Joe Brower; Cannoneer No. 4; Criminal Number 18F; Dan from Michigan; Eaker; Jeff Head; ...
Liberal Apartheid

Why Obamacare Threatens Immigration Reform: Delaying the Mandate Shows Disregard for the Law

ObamaCare on the Brink

Case Against Zimmerman Collapsing

Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.

67 posted on 07/08/2013 10:13:55 PM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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To: Jeff Head

ChiPing


68 posted on 07/09/2013 4:53:03 AM PDT by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: EQAndyBuzz

How did the ARTICLE ‘know’?


69 posted on 07/09/2013 5:51:01 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: SampleMan
You can’t win blue water Naval engagements against aircraft carriers except with nuclear submarines and/or other aircraft carriers.

Oh?

I'm afraid that the Chinese DO know how to lop the head off of the dragon!


Sun Tzu is one of THEIR historical figures: not OURS!

70 posted on 07/09/2013 5:54:26 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: neverdem
This will do the job->>  &#8800



71 posted on 07/09/2013 6:02:56 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: neverdem
&ne also works....


For the complete list...


http://www.w3schools.com/tags/ref_symbols.asp

72 posted on 07/09/2013 6:06:07 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: warchild9

There’s something wrong with that horse...


73 posted on 07/09/2013 6:07:01 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: warchild9

There’s something very wrong with that horse...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=12xGPHcEC5o


74 posted on 07/09/2013 6:11:43 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: lbryce
No CONDOMS???



75 posted on 07/09/2013 6:13:51 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: BwanaNdege
Legendary, historical or fictional, William Tell is, as you say, a good metaphor and a hero.
76 posted on 07/09/2013 6:18:43 AM PDT by Elsie (Heck is where people, who don't believe in Gosh, think they are not going...)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


77 posted on 07/09/2013 8:02:03 AM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: Elsie

They are going to hit us with bad movies? I don’t quite get your link.

Taking out the POTUS wouldn’t help the Chinese much in a naval war. In fact, taking out the current POTUS and VP could be detrimental to them.


78 posted on 07/09/2013 8:05:46 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: Elsie

“How did the ARTICLE ‘know’?”

These things write themselves. Snowden probably told them.


79 posted on 07/09/2013 8:09:22 AM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (The reason we own guns is to protect ourselves from those wanting to take our guns from us.)
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To: Elsie

Thanks for that URL. That’s what I was hoping for someone to show me.


80 posted on 07/09/2013 11:39:32 AM PDT by neverdem (Register pressure cookers! /s)
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