Yes, the Missing Whites Matter

Real Clear Politics ^ | July 12, 2013 | Sean Trende

[neverdem]

In my recent four-part series on demographic changes, the 2012 elections and immigration reform, I suggested that census data and exit polls reveal that some 6 million white voters opted to sit out last November’s election. The data show these non-voters were not primarily Southerners or evangelicals, but were located in Northeast, Midwest and Southwest. Mainly, they fit the profile of “Reagan Democrats” or, more recently, a Ross Perot supporter. For these no-shows, Mitt Romney was not a natural fit.

I drew the conclusion that one path forward for the Republican Party could involve, in part, reaching out to these voters by altering the GOP’s economic platform and messaging. There are still valid questions that flow from this: How much...

--snip--

If we use the census data throughout for all of our projections, we actually end up observing 5.9 million fewer whites than anticipated. We also end up with only about 1.3 million missing non-whites, rather than the 2.6 million missing non-whites from my original calculations, taken from the exit polls.** Again, many of these are Hispanics and Asians, who in reality have lower registration and participation rates than our 55 percent estimate. You can actually use the census data to estimate these things in multiple ways (this runs into some of the peculiarities of the census data I mentioned), but they all end up pointing back to the same conclusion: About 6 million fewer whites voted than we would have expected.

My conclusion is that Republicans should pay attention to the concerns of the millions of alienated working-class voters who sat out the 2012 election because the GOP needs them -- not at the exclusion of minority voters, many of whom are also working class, but in addition to them -- to form a winning coalition in the future.

[neverdem]

You’re saying that that hard left turn was a mistake?

I wanted Romney about as much as Ron Paul. They were tied for last in my picks.

[Tolerance Sucks Rocks]

[Alamo-Girl]

Thanks for the ping!

[Jim Noble]

I still think it’s a myth that white Americans have stopped breeding

I have seven white children, a white wife, a white grandchild, and a very light yellow Labrador Retriever.

In 2010, for the first time ever, I did not see or hear from a census taker. Not that I was looking for them, you understand - but they didn't show up.

Maybe it was the Bennington and Gadsden flags in the front yard, but maybe it was something else?

[neverdem]

In 2010, for the first time ever, I did not see or hear from a census taker. Not that I was looking for them, you understand - but they didn't show up.

The "census taker" is sent to addresses that don't reply to the form sent in the mail. Maybe your wife filled out the form, or you moved into a brand new address that the Census Bureau didn't know about yet?

[pax_et_bonum]

I thought this thread was going to be about omelette recipes.