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Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (August-2013 5-9 edition)
Daily investment & finance thread ^ | August 5, 2013 | dennisw's thread

Posted on 08/05/2013 3:55:38 AM PDT by expat_panama

This is the Weekly Investment & Finance Thread (August-2013 5-9 edition)----  
Trying to focus on the markets for today and each day and the economic news
This is where you can exchange some investment opinions and advice 

 

If you see another FR economic thread you like and want to link to it here, please do
Post your favorite economic site links. Your favorite economic blogs and precious metals blogs and sites

Ping list -- on or off let me know here or via freep-mail. If I missed you then Freep-mail me
I might ping you to other interesting economic threads a few times a week. One per day maybe

 

Sites that posters have recommended ------ 

 

hot stuff here Rush Limbaugh quotes them sometimes

http://www.zerohedge.com 

Precious Metals
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com
http://www.Apmex.com

The Markets....
http://seekingalpha.com/
http://www.dailystocks.com/
http://www.gainerstoday.com/
http://www.gainerstoday.com/
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/
http://247wallst.com/
http://www.decisionmoose.com/
http://www.market-ticker.org/

Dividends...
http://dividendsvalue.com/
http://www.dividends4life.com/
http://www.dividendyieldhunter.com/
http://www.dividendstocksonline.com/
http://www.dividenddetective.com/
http://dividendstocks4income.com/
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/

 

“Drip-ing”...
http://dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp

CPA’s....
http://www.aicpa.org

Gold, Out of the Box Thinking etc...
http://www.davejanda.com/
https://www.everbank.com/
http://dailypfennig.com/
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/

Oil and Gas Industry
http://fuelfix.com/
http://www.theoildrum.com/
http://www.petroleumnews.com/cgi-bin/start.cgi/homeauto.html

Treasury Basics..
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/BC/SBCPrice

All things forex from different sources. Lots of forums for traders
http://www.forexfactory.com/

 



TOPICS: Business/Economy; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: investing; money; stocks

1 posted on 08/05/2013 3:55:38 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

A happy Monday morning to all!   Futures are flat, let's all go back to bed.

Veto of Apple Ruling Likely to Upend Big Patent Battles
 
The Obama administration's decision to overturn an international trade ruling against Apple Inc. —the first such veto in more than 25 years—promises to upend long-running battles over intellectual property in the smartphone market and change the strategies ...

 

Global shares rise, dollar softens after data dampens prospects for Fed tapering
By Richard Hubbard. LONDON | Mon Aug 5, 2013 4:29am EDT. LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar softened and European shares edged up to a two-month high on Monday after last week's batch of U.S.

2 posted on 08/05/2013 4:03:52 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Almost all of the petroleum storage facilities are full to the max, yet crude prices are still high. It’s the new economics. Someone behind the scenes decides what prices will be for everything and damn supply and demand. Same thing with the market — it’s all rigged. No real economy exists to support this market and yet it marches on.


3 posted on 08/05/2013 4:53:13 AM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: MeneMeneTekelUpharsin
Weird, it's amazing how often we hear that because it never NEVER works that way in real life. If people need something and are willing to pay more, the price goes up and if not, the price goes down; sellers have the same affect.  Anyone else --government, cartel, whatever can pretend but it always has to come back to reality.


4 posted on 08/05/2013 5:02:52 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Websites I like

http://www.itulip.com

Site owner is an economist and predicted our current financial problems back in 1999

http://www.itulip.com/kapoomtheory.htm

Metals focused site with analysis

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Another metals analysis site for alternative viewpoints

http://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/mark-j-lundeen


5 posted on 08/05/2013 5:27:08 AM PDT by underbyte (TEOTEWAKI)
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To: underbyte
tx, [adding to htm file]  There, howzatt?
6 posted on 08/05/2013 6:14:11 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

There has been a subtle but perceptible shift in the market since Friday’s bad employment numbers. Though the market is still making marginal gains, ease of movement is now to the downside, and resistance has shifted to the sell side on the bid/ask and size. We may be nearing a short term top.


7 posted on 08/05/2013 7:35:59 AM PDT by Free Vulcan (Vote Republican! You can vote Democrat when you're dead...)
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To: Free Vulcan

Looking at the volume+price combos we’ve been having with the S&P500 I’d agree; there are indicators that say we’re in for a downdraft as the first part of a several month bear market.

Of course, the indicators are wrong sometimes...


8 posted on 08/05/2013 10:06:05 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/08/05/investors-poured-40-3-billion-into-stocks-in-july-trimtabs/

Investors poured $40.3 billion into stocks in July: TrimTabs
August 5, 2013, 2:10 PM

Surprise!

Investors have been pouring money into stocks.

U.S. equity mutual funds and ETFs saw a record inflow of $40.3 billion in July, according to data from TrimTabs. More than three-fourths of that went into U.S. equity ETFs, while the remainder went into mutual funds.

Bond funds saw $21.1 billion in outflows in July, following on the record $69.1 billion in June.

But cash remains even more popular than equities, with a combined inflow to savings deposits and retail money market funds of $143.4 billion, for the eight-week period ending July 22.

– Tom Bemis


9 posted on 08/05/2013 1:24:09 PM PDT by abb
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To: abb

That’s pretty interesting. Some pretty good discussion in the comments.


10 posted on 08/05/2013 3:58:39 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If global warming exists I hope it is strong enough to reverse the Big Government snowball)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

One of the classic signs of a market top is when all the money is committed. All the bets are in, so to speak. When that happens, then there are no more buyers to make it go up further.


11 posted on 08/05/2013 4:23:31 PM PDT by abb
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To: abb
...signs of a market top is when all the money is committed...

--and when all active traders are 100% in, then the only trades that happen are when all the active traders start selling to part time/inactive traders.  We're no where near that; here's stocks % net worth since 1990:

The percent's only average, no where near "all the money is committed".

12 posted on 08/05/2013 5:43:56 PM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

That last dip on that chart scared a lot of people off. I know some swore they would never own stocks again. It was sad really. One friend watched it go all the way to the bottom and then panicked and pulled it out after his 401k was destroyed. If he had left it alone he would have been OK but instead he moved to cash and watched it go back up. I wonder if the years of basically nothing returns have changed his mind and he went back in. I know now doesn’t seem like a good time to bail back in.


13 posted on 08/05/2013 7:54:03 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If global warming exists I hope it is strong enough to reverse the Big Government snowball)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

At three hours before opening stock & metal futures are flat, but things keep happening:

Nasdaq Ekes Out Another Gain As Market Catches Its Breath
08/05/2013 06:53 PM ET - The major indexes closed mixed in narrow-ranged trading Monday as volume cooled. But growth stocks continued to move in the right direction for the bulls. Sellers held the upper hand at the open, as all of the key averages started the day with losses. But, as often seen during a healthy uptrend, the tide turned after a half hour's worth of trading. The ..

Obama to urge Congress in speech to shutter Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac


14 posted on 08/06/2013 3:31:38 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
watched it go all the way to the bottom and then panicked and pulled it out after his 401k was destroyed.

Supposedly the manager of the Harvard endowment did that and the college lost billions.  For me one of the lessons here is never act on emotion, and the other is to always watch the long run.  That big dip in '09 was big but not as low and long as the malaise daze.  That was followed by a tripling of money buying stocks:


15 posted on 08/06/2013 3:45:27 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama
For me one of the lessons here is never act on emotion, and the other is to always watch the long run.

Money and wealth for individuals is very much an emotional function. If it were just a bookkeeping exercise, wealth accumulation would be a snap.

16 posted on 08/06/2013 4:21:23 AM PDT by abb
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To: All
If someone will just give me a weeks notice before the next BIG selloff, would be much appreciated.

/jk . . . maybe

17 posted on 08/06/2013 5:10:52 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: abb

Exactly, and the fact it’s so natural and the extent that overcoming it is so hard is why the returns are huge for those of us that are willing to put in the extra effort.


18 posted on 08/06/2013 5:13:19 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama; abb

FEAR and GREED are the enemies.


19 posted on 08/06/2013 5:26:00 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin
That last dip on that chart scared a lot of people off.

I was fortunate enough to almost completely miss the 2000 crash... and, was given excellent timing information from a newsletter guy, Bob Brinker, to get back in the market in March 2003. Perfect!

In 2008, I was actually OUT of the market in May through August... misseed the 20% sell-off. Then, I convinced myself that the worst was over, and moved back in... :-(

The worst was NOT over... it had just started. By October, I was mostly OUT... and, stayed out for longer than I should. In fact, I've NEVER been fully in the market since. But, I have been able to catch a good deal of the upside in the past year and a half.

I'm about 50% in cash now... every instinct I have wants me to put MORE in the market... but, this is August. And, feel a LOT like I did in 2008. I keep thinking I'll wait for a pullback... but, the pullbacks have been few, and weak.

So... I'm stuck.. sitting here paralyzed.. trying to just not worry about anything.

20 posted on 08/06/2013 6:17:11 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in governm<p>ent. If any were, business would hire them f)
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To: SomeCallMeTim

I’m in the same boat! Wanting to get in more, waiting for pullbacks, afraid of a repeat of 08. (sigh)


21 posted on 08/06/2013 9:55:39 AM PDT by Abigail Adams
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

Futures down sharply as yesterday's drop continues:

Uptrend Faces Selling Pressure As Nasdaq Notches 6th Distribution Day

08/06/2013 06:53 PM ET - Homebuilding, gold mining, biotech and a few stocks within the vast retail sector got smacked Tuesday as the market declined broadly in higher volume. The Nasdaq fell 0.7% — its largest decline since a 1.1% drop on June 24 — as volume picked up nearly 5%. On the NYSE, turnover intensified at a greater pace, up 23%, as the S&P 500 lost 0.6%. ... More »

An aging rally is looking like it may be replaced by a correction.

22 posted on 08/07/2013 2:50:17 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

Futures down sharply as yesterday's drop continues:

Uptrend Faces Selling Pressure As Nasdaq Notches 6th Distribution Day

08/06/2013 06:53 PM ET - Homebuilding, gold mining, biotech and a few stocks within the vast retail sector got smacked Tuesday as the market declined broadly in higher volume. The Nasdaq fell 0.7% — its largest decline since a 1.1% drop on June 24 — as volume picked up nearly 5%. On the NYSE, turnover intensified at a greater pace, up 23%, as the S&P 500 lost 0.6%. ... More »

An aging rally is looking like it may be replaced by a correction.

23 posted on 08/07/2013 2:51:33 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: All

sorry about the repost —that’s the last time I press the ‘resend’ button w/o checking the pings.


24 posted on 08/07/2013 2:58:44 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: All

One word: Bearnado. That was on Fast Money last night.


25 posted on 08/07/2013 6:27:41 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: expat_panama
My personal favorite day trade stock is SandRidge Energy. Their live conference call is ongoing now at:

http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/4ga65tna/lan/en

I love this this thread but have been so busy that I have not have live-time input as of late, but would hope to contribute more in the days ahead.

26 posted on 08/07/2013 6:42:53 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

This is what IBD calls 'market under pressure', like a yellow traffic light saying to proceed with caution.  Yesterday's trading was worrysome--

As Nasdaq Adds To Its Distribution

08/07/2013 06:34 PM ET - The major indexes trimmed losses Wednesday but still added to an uncomfortably rising sum of distribution in the market. The Nasdaq fell 0.3% and the S&P 500 0.4%. But the indexes were down much more early in the session and shrank their losses throughout the day. The composite was off as much as 0.9% in the first hour, while the S&P 500 had slid ... More »

--while today's futures are up and the news is more upbeat

Unexpected strength in China trade data eases some gloom

By Koh Gui Qing. BEIJING | Thu Aug 8, 2013 4:15am EDT. BEIJING (Reuters) - Surprisingly firm rebounds in China's exports and imports in July offered some hope that the world's second-largest economy might be stabilizing after more than two years of ...

Europe shares higher on strong

 


27 posted on 08/08/2013 2:59:16 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: All

I’m looking at the energy sector. Anybody have any favorites? I’m nibbling at PSX but am open to suggestions.


28 posted on 08/08/2013 6:59:51 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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To: All

This headline cracked me up.

” Tesla’s Valuation: From Ridiculous to Gary Busey in 5.8 Seconds”

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/08/teslas-valuation-from-ridiculous-to-gary-busey-in.aspx


29 posted on 08/08/2013 5:55:30 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If global warming exists I hope it is strong enough to reverse the Big Government snowball)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin; blam; expat_panama
You look at historic metric to value stable companies. For companies with projected exponential growth like Tesla, you try to project what these metrics will be at stable state in the future and discount it for the risk of getting there.

I believe even after the recent run-up the stock is undervalued for its potential and the hurdles it faces to reach its potential.

30 posted on 08/08/2013 6:07:50 PM PDT by Cool Guy
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To: Cool Guy

LOL, I just saw the headline and thought it was funny. I don’t have an option on whether it’s worth that price or not. The author obviously thinks it isn’t.


31 posted on 08/08/2013 6:38:16 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If global warming exists I hope it is strong enough to reverse the Big Government snowball)
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

I agree the headline is funny.


32 posted on 08/08/2013 6:44:20 PM PDT by Cool Guy
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To: BipolarBob

It’s not energy but this one is doing quite well

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=AMAVF+Interactive#symbol=amavf;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;


33 posted on 08/08/2013 11:38:39 PM PDT by Lurkina.n.Learnin (If global warming exists I hope it is strong enough to reverse the Big Government snowball)
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To: abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; Aliska; Aquamarine; B.O. Plenty; BenLurkin; bert; BipolarBob; ...

Futures down again after yesterday's uptick.  We got pundits happy even while the market's setting up a selloff:

Stocks End Brief Losing Streaks; China Boosts Bulls

08/08/2013 06:39 PM ET - Stocks bounced higher Thursday, ending a three-day losing streak on the S&P 500 and a two-day dip on the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 gained 0.4% each, while the Dow added 0.2%. The IBD 50 advanced 0.6%. Volume rose across the board. Yet with the uptrend under pressure, the caution light is on. What would it take to get a green light? A hint ... More »

Fed's Evans Sees Labor Improvement With September Taper Possible
 

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans, who has been among the most vocal proponents of record monetary accommodation, said there has been “good improvement” in the labor market and indicated that a tapering of the central bank's ...
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, dollar drop on Fed tapering uncertainty  
Tapering of Stimulus Could Start as Soon as September, 2 Fed Presidents Hint  

34 posted on 08/09/2013 2:54:52 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: Lurkina.n.Learnin

Ah, to have bought that several months ago. Thanks.


35 posted on 08/09/2013 8:28:59 AM PDT by BipolarBob
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