Posted on 11/04/2013 9:46:32 AM PST by topher
Latest Monthly Assessment - The November 2013 Drought Outlook is based on initial conditions, short and medium range forecasts, the CPC updated monthly outlooks for temperature and precipitation, and climatology. During late October, heavy rains ahead of a slow moving cold front fell across parts of south-central and southeastern Texas, causing localized flooding in Austin and regions just to the southwest. Widespread rainfall associated with the same storm system also overspread eastern Kansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, and northern Illinois, with accumulations of an inch or greater observed. Additional rainfall in these areas are expected during the first week of November, as ridging builds over the Southeast, promoting slow frontal passages as new mid-latitude storms develop across the Mississippi Valley. Therefore, drought improvement or removal is anticipated across south central and eastern Texas and along the middle and lower Mississippi Valley. Further east, the ridging over the Southeast is forecast to prevent significant rainfall from reaching the Atlantic coast. Drought development is possible across parts of the Southeast, especially along the Savannah River basin, where 30-day percent of normal precipitation values are particularly low. Drought has also expanded across parts of the Northeast, and without a clear signal for wetness during the first half of November, persistence is anticipated. Uncertainty increases towards the end of the month, as coastal winter storms become more likely. November is a climatologically dry time of year across the Plains and intermountain West, making drought persistence most probable. Winter storm activity increases across the Pacific Northwest during late autumn, but sufficient precipitation to overcome current drought conditions is not likely to occur until later in the winter season, especially across California. Drought persistence is forecast for interior Alaska, where November is a climatologically dry time of year. Persistence is also anticipated across Hawaii, where the rainy season becomes most active beyond the monthly forecast period.
Forecaster: A. Allgood
Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: November 30, 2013 at 3:00 PM EDT
Thank God for the recent rains
My little piece of S E Texas was over average for the year. It just wasn’t evenly distributed throughout the year. Like Oct, we had rain three times for a total of 7 1/2” against a 4.7” avg. During the summer, it didn’t rain hardly any.
We are blessed, parts of Texas had almost nothing this year.
I’m so happy to be in the green area shown on the map!
Praise God!
There was some flooding (but not bad as I understand) around Austin... Southeast Texas tends to handle heavy rains better than the Hill Country.
Hopefully my posting are not goofy
raining today in central Texas, tomorrow and Wednesday too. Hope so we need it.
I know the lakes and reservoirs have been quite low. Lake Travis has needed the rain as well as the lakes around Dallas/Fort Worth...
After November 30th, the map will change for the next month...
I’m sure. Lake Belton and Stillhouse are big time low.
Doesn’t look like much improvement in west Texas ... or the western hill country which feeds into Lake Travis. Still dire, IMO.
I believe the image above was how it was like this past summer. And almost all of Texas was BROWN except for Southeast Texas (which was yellow and brown).
It is a big improvement in November!
Now, I just returned from a last, desperate supply run at the grocery store, and I can report provisions are flying off the shelves as panicky shoppers are grabbing any unclaimed provisions. I witnessed a death match struggle over a crumpled box of Lucky Charms over on aisle 12. It was so ugly. Even the surly Asst Manager, Marge, couldn't stop the food feud.
There's some talk of umbrellas being deployed across the metroplex, and I'll work my sources to try to confirm this curious phenomenon. Will update as moisture allows.
EOM
Satire or Ice Storms predicted?
Well, if you gotta ask...no, no ice expected. You see, we’ve been in a drought for a number of years now and rain is a novelty in these parts + people round here overreact to weather events, generally speaking. Perhaps you’d have to live here to fully appreciate it. Had there been a wintry mix forecasted my reply would NOT have been in jest. I kid you not.
Just stay off Central. Folks go crazy there when it rains.
If there was a drought in GA this year it missed North Ga. All it did was rain.
I wish I could find a site that shows the drought history of the past two years...
Lake Lanier has been near/at full pool all summer. We didn't have just a rainy summer. It was more like 5 days of rain followed by 1 or 2 days of sun. Followed by more rain. In fact we haven't had what I call drought conditions for several years.
I wonder if the same people who declare drought conditions are the same ones who said it would take 10 years for Lake Lanier to return to full pool? IIRC, it took 1 year & some odd months of a normal rain pattern for a return to full pool.
My county blames drought conditions for water restrictions which is nothing more than an excuse. When the last real drought was at its peak we could water outside maybe 15 minutes at most per week. Yet the county kept approving new subdivisions. Plus we have our own city vs county water wars. The city usually wins.
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