Montana Republicans Well Positioned for 2014

Public Policy Polling ^ | November 19, 2013

[Clintonfatigued]

PPP's first Montana Senate poll since Steve Daines officially got into the race finds him starting out with pretty substantial leads for both the general and primary elections. Daines leads Democratic challengers John Bohlinger and John Walsh by spreads of 51/36 and 52/35 respectively. He also has a 66/7 lead in the primary over Champ Edmunds.

Daines' leads aren't a function of his being particularly popular. He has a 37/42 approval spread, down a net 13 points from June when he was at 41/33. It does appear anger over the shutdown has had some effect on his image. But the number that may be most important to the US Senate race at this point is 34. That's Barack Obama's approval rating in the state, with 63% of voters disapproving of him. Only 31% of voters in the state support the Affordable Care Act to 58% opposed, and just 14% think the rollout of the ACA has been a success to 82% who think it's been unsuccessful. 63% rate it as being 'very unsuccessful.' All of that is making it a tough start to the race for Democrats.

Daines has his large early leads because he gets 87-90% of the Republican vote, compared to only 75-76% of the Democratic vote for Bohlinger and Walsh. Daines is also up by 13-14 points with independents. If there's any silver lining for Democrats it's that a lot more of their voters are undecided, but with Daines over 50% it's looking like a climb.

[Clintonfatigued]

The good news just keeps coming. Obama and Company’s heavy-handedness and arrogance is backfiring on them in a big way.

[Viennacon]

This depends on Daines not phoning it in. I hope he’s learned the lesson of North Dakota’s Rick Berg. The state party also needs to work on GOTV, and Daines needs to tie his opponents to Obamacare while offering persuadable Democrats a reason to vote for him.

[BooBoo1000]

Nothing happens in Montana Elections until the Butte Dems have quit counting the votes in the graveyard.Butte politics are so crooked even Charles Shumer would be ashamed.

[Baynative]

A lot can be learned from frequenting local newspaper opinion sections and looking at letters to the editor or comments that follow different stories.

We've been shopping real estate in several areas and Montana was high on our list at one time. But, the growing liberal influence in politics is evident in Bozeman, Kalispell and Butte and we are focusing more on other areas.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

80% of Montana voted for self deportation and only 55% voted for cheap labor Romney.

[Paladin2]

Don’t forget to include Missoula and Helena on your list.

[Baynative]

I’ll go to those papers and follow the thought lines there.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Clintonfatigued. The Demwits still have plenty of time to recruit an "independent conservative" or "libertarian".

Daines leads Democratic challengers John Bohlinger and John Walsh by spreads of 51/36 and 52/35 respectively. He also has a 66/7 lead in the primary over Champ Edmunds.

[montanajoe]

Nobody in Montana gives a rats ass about next years elections at this point.

Daine’s is not particularly popular but he does have name recognition which I would bet any poll now is measuring rather than electability. There is a strong anti-incumbent mood up here ...we would just assume throw all the idiots in Washington out irregardless of party so name recognition may not be a good thing.

I would not believe any polling this far out much less paint a rosy picture regarding his chances because at this point nobody knows..