Skip to comments.Larry Sabato: Republicans could really win it all in 2014, if …
Posted on 01/07/2014 12:56:00 PM PST by SeekAndFind
This should be a huge midterm election for Republicans, especially for the Senate, where they need six seats to seize control of the upper chamber and send Harry Reid back to the business end of his filibuster reform. After all, it just took a little overreach and arrogance for Barack Obama and the Democrats to end up in the 2010 shredder, losing the House in the first midterms for Obama. After lying for five years with the “you can keep your plan” promise and the skyrocketing costs for health insurance set to hammer the middle class, 2014 should make 2010 look like a picnic … right? Larry Sabato thinks so, assuming Republicans don’t blow the opportunity:
Id argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms.
1. The president. His job approval numbers are perhaps the best indicator of the publics overall political orientation at any given time, a kind of summary statistic that takes everything at the national level into account. In a large majority of cases, the presidents party does poorly in midterms, especially the second midterm of a two-term administration. …
As 2014 begins, the environment for the Democrats in this election year is not good. The botched, chaotic rollout of the Affordable Care Act is the obvious cause, but it is broader than that: the typical sixth-year unease that produces a send-them-a-message election. Fortunately for Democrats, the GOP-initiated shutdown of the federal government in October has tempered the publics desire for a shift to the Republican side, too. None of the above might win a few races in November if voters had the choice.
As long as Republicans keep the focus on ObamaCare, the incompetence of its administration, and the falsehoods used to sell it, they should do well against Democrats forced to defend it. Sabato notes that “this year’s Senate slate strongly favors the Republicans,” and that will remain true as long as Republicans keep aiming at Democrats.
Unfortunately, we’re seeing a lot of effort at aiming at Republicans, especially in what would be otherwise safe Senate seats. In my column today for The Week, I point out the stakes involved in this midterm election and agree with Gov. Scott Walker that we risk disaster by redirecting our aim internally rather than externally:
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker sees the same danger. In an interview with CNN’s Candy Crowley, the potential presidential contender warned activists that, while their energy and frustration are appreciated, their target selection is way off. Those unhappy with budget compromises need to aim at Senate Democrats rather than sitting Republicans, Walker explained, so that Republicans gain rather than lose leverage. “[G]o to Louisiana or go to Arkansas or go to North Carolina or Alaska, where there are senators facing real elections as Democrats,” Walker advised, “and go and help in those elections and elect new Republicans to come because a year from now, things will be much different if Republicans hold the United States Senate.”
That’s good advice. Thanks to Harry Reid’s dismantling of the filibuster, just standing pat in the Senate for the final two years of Obama’s presidency won’t be enough for Republicans. The GOP needs the majority to force Obama into compromises on appointments as well as to control the floor agenda on legislation. That will still put Republicans in opposition to Obama, but they can set the table themselves in Congress and force Obama to deal with them directly, rather than have Reid running interference. The GOP will also need to take as many Senate seats in 2014, because the 2016 class of the Senate will be tougher on Republicans.
This isn’t to say that the grassroots activists have no legitimate reasons for their anger with Republican leadership on Capitol Hill, or to suggest that primary challenges are a bad practice. In 2014, though, the opportunity to finally sideline Reid and take command of Capitol Hill is too good to pass up. This last chance to use both chambers of Congress to slow down the Obama administration should have the Tea Party pointing their rhetorical and activist guns outward rather than inward.
In this case, we’re better off getting Republicans elected rather than spending this election in a purification effort. Right now, the majority has got to be the priority.
The Stupid Party is so infiltrated with RINO’s that they will be SEARCHING for ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of voctory.
I’d argue that the GOP-e’s warfare against the conservative wing of the GOP base has doomed Republican prospects for 2014.
Exhibit A: The 2012 Presidential election
Rather than hold their nose any longer, conservatives showed that they are willing to stay at home if they perceive that the candidate does not respect their values.
If “and”and “buts” were candy and nuts...
The GOP is too busy attacking their base to win. It’s a wash.
Ed just can’t think outside the damned party...
Scott Walker has done something that none of those Republicans in Washington have done, picked fights with Dem, lure them into traps, and beat the crap out of them by passing his agenda right though them.
You don't hear him whining “I failed because those OTHER Republicans wouldn't support me”
Thats loser talk.
Yep. Vote for the Republican party to do what?
Oh, and the mud being slung at Repubs by the media now is nothing like it will be come Autumn.
Want to make a difference ? Start your own vocal group Be your own precinct captain The piece below is designed to be printed up and passed around your precinct and your friends and neighbors as a half sheet flyer. On the face (REVERSE SIDE)or below the slogan you can put the name of the candidate you favor and the election dates...EXCELLENT FOR SLIPPING UNDER WINDSHIELD WIPERS ON CARS PARKED IN KEY PARKING LOTS CHURCHES, RALLY SITES....
Did you know the Democrat party voted to remove any reference to God at their 2012 national convention ? And when they decided it was a mistake and unpolitical they rammed the change to put it back in like they voted for Obamacare.But delegates booed the decision. The Democrat is not the party of JFK or even FDR. It’s a queer hyphenated marriage between socialists and “progressives” They are now Demo-Coms.
GOD DENIERS AND PREDACIOUS LIARS
YOUR WEALTH INCITERS/
FIRST YOUR MONEY THEN YOUR GUNS
ISSUING DECREES OF MANY COME
DEMAND SURRENDERING CHOICES ONE BY ONE
INTO REGIMENTATION YOU MUST RUN
AND NOW THEIR ROBOT YOUVE BECOME
Its time to get a government run by a lying Godless political party OUT
OUT of Our faces
Our religions and and Our pocketbooks
Republicans could really win it all in 2014, if
They don’t do something stupid like caving in to liberals...............
[for those who don’t know: The Washington Generals are the hapless team who play against and lose to the Harlem Globtrotters every night]
We had better figure out how to beat their cheating or this once great country is DONE.
Larry Sabato eh? A real dynamo full of insight and brilliance NOT.
So Larry, all we need to do is keep electing covert democrats with an ‘R’ on their lapels?
I believe Sabato lives in Northern Virginia and drinks the foul water there that is drawn from the Beltway sewage system. Hence, he is brain damaged with ruling class dementia.
does this person not notice the GOPe leadership is at war with conservatives and the TEA Party right now?
The Ruling Class imbeciles still think that Battered Wife Syndrome still plagues the majority of Conservatives.
They can eff themselves. They are no different than the MarxoFascists - which is why we now have a crescendo of Rovian talking points that are threatening Conservatives must bend over, suck up, shut up and take whatever they are told.
I’ll write in my dog before I ever vote for one of these Ruling Class Statists or their lackeys.
You cannot beguile a person of principle. You can only subjugate and/or make them irrelevant - in which case tyranny is what is being imposed.
They didn't do anything for me when they had it before.
I don’t want a “Republican” win this year. I want a Conservative win.
Which is why the media will ask every candidate running with an (R) after their name to discuss rape, abortion and the age of the earth.