Posted on 02/06/2014 4:22:17 PM PST by SomeCallMeTim
Please see the links in post #8, all recent FR articles. I don’t know that Bevin is as far behind as this post claims.
I agree. Grimes seems to be desperately trying to get to McConnell’s right on guns and coal and even more desperately trying to run away from Harry Reid and Obama.
That may bump her favorability, but it’s going to be a very hard sell when people hit the voting booth.
I agree.
Romney beat Obama by 23% in Kentucky just 18 months ago.
And, the state is 86% white.
No, but the primary challenger would be.
Hardly.. Mitch is 26 points ahead of Bevin. Even if, ALL undecided went to Bevin, McConnell wins by 10.
#8!!! Are all of those recent FR posts wrong?!?!
I'm not worried about McConnell's position against Grimes. He will beat here.
I was really hoping Bevin could beat Mitch. I'm still going to keep working for it. But, NAME RECOGNITION is killing Bevin. Or rather, LACK thereof.
We found a guy in Indiana who ran 10 points behind ROMNEY!
Throw in 5 or 6 points to a Dem funded Libertarian and you get the infamous “Clinton plurality” win for the Dems.
DITCH MITCH! He’s going to lose!!!!!!
Wait and see... I think Bevin wins on primary day. I mean, who would be excited to vote for Mitch in the primary? Even his staff are “holding their noses”.
There are a lot of “moderates” in KY Republican ranks who know nothing of McC’s often liberal voting record. They stick with a name they recognize.
That was before the Obamacare dream turned into a nightmare.
Well, for starters.. all three of those recent posts are based on ONE poll... done by Rasmussen, on Jan. 29-30. It was a poll of 500 people, done only on the phone. It used only land line phones, no cell phones. They did use some online survey forms to help correct for people who don't have land line phones. It was LIKELY VOTERS... and, it has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.
The poll I linked was done on Jan 30 - Feb 4. It was 1200 people, of which 1082 were REGISTERED VOTERS. Of the 1082 Registered voters, ~ 40% were registered as Republicans, and only THOSE people were asked the primary question.
The poll was done on land lines (77%) and cell phones (23%) and also included some on-line surveys. It has a margin of error of +/3%.
So, no... I wouldn't say the other poll was WRONG? It was just slightly different. The results from both polls are within the margin of error. SO, statistically... they say the same thing.
Personally, I Think a poll of "Likely Voters" is more accurate than "Registered Voters". So, the data on the general election might be better in the Rassmussen poll. However, I don't think either of the polls is accurate on that part. It's just too far out. Grimes will not defeat either Bevin or McConnell.
In my opinion, the WHAS poll is MUCH more accurate on the Republican Primary race. That's why it's such bad news for Bevin. He's still really far behind. The GOOD NEWS for Bevin is, the data indicates that his problem isn't that people don't LIKE him... they just don't KNOW him. That's what campaigns are for... to introduce and sell yourself to the public. But, he's going to need a LOT more money. And, some kind of issue to separate himself from Mitch.
Of course, Mitch is making that very difficult, since... he's the "uber-conservative" during election years. It's an uphill battle for Bevin.
Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes leads five-term incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 46% to 42%
McConnell enjoys a comfortable 26 point margin in the Republican primary contest against Matt Bevin in the poll conducted by Survey USA
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Let me see if I’ve got this right: The 5-Term incumbent is trailing his Democratic Challenger by 4 percentage points; yet, the majority of GOP Primary voters still want him to be their candidate in November???? Who did they poll? The inbreds in the mountains?
ping
Well.... this IS Kentucky. So... some of them, yeah!
I don't believe for a second that McConnell or Bevin would lose to Grimes in the general. People in the state are disgusted with Mitch. But, they don't really know Grimes yet either. McConnell's mud slinging machine has been solely focued on Bevin for now. People, in general, know even LESS about Bevin than they do Grimes. What little they do know? Is negative crap told to them from Mitch.
There are a lot of “moderates” in KY Republican ranks who know nothing of McC’s often liberal voting record.
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And, thanks be to God, these are people who do NOT vote in Primary Elections 90% of the time.
Thanks for the ping.
This is a poll of registered voters (over half of whom don’t vote in midterm elections, with young people, minorities, soft Democrats and independents being the likeliest not to vote) that oversamples Democrats and in which supporters of each of McConnell and Bevin have every incentive to claim that they won’t be voting for the other Republican in a matchup against Alison Lundergan Grimes (or Grimey, as she prefers to be called), given that supporters of each candidate want to project the notion that only their guy can defeat Grimey. If this was a poll of likely voters that matched the electorate that we’ll get this November, both McConnell and Bevin would be leading Grimey. Absent a big screw-up by the GOP nominee (which I humbly suggest is something that would be a hundred times likelier to occur with the untested, unknown Bevin as the nominee than with McConnell), Grimey can’t win: she’s a Democrat running for the U.S. Senate in KY in 2014, and so far has not proven to have very good campaigning skills.
McConnell would get 53%+ against Grimey; Bevin would get somewhere between 45% and 55%, depending on a large number of factors. Grimey certainly would have a much easier time “defining” Bevin in voters’ eyes than she would at trying to define McConnell.
I'm not so sure... The Rasmussen poll linked above (post 8) was Likely Voters. It showed McConnell and Grimes tied. Bevin was slightly ahead of Grimes.
But, I agree that the numbers are skewed now, for all the reasons you stated. I'm not worried about my state voting Republican in a State wide election... barring, as you say, an "Akin-like" self-inflicted wound. Which, yes... would be more likely from Bevin than from McConnell. But, we've got 3 months to go. Let's see how the campaigning goes.
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