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Senate race poll numbers look good for Republicans (Michael Barone)
Washington Examiner ^ | January 31, 2014 | Michael Barone

Posted on 02/09/2014 6:12:37 PM PST by neverdem

The balance in the 2014 race for a majority in the Senate seems to have shifted -- toward the Republicans. Two polls released today showed Louisiana Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger John Cassidy and New Hampshire Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen running even with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Here is how Republicans are faring in seven seats that are up in states carried by Mitt Romney. I've shown the Real Clear Politics averages or, when that wasn't available, an average from the two most recent public polls (an asterisk means there wasn't an RCP average available). Following that is the most recent public poll and the polling firm which produced it. And I've added the Gallup 2013 Obama job approval numbers for each state, rounded off to integers.

In each comparison, the best known Republican candidate’s percentage is listed first.

State Poll average Most recent public poll Polling firm Obama job approval rating
Alaska 40-47* 39-50 Hays 33
Arkansas 40-40 37-36 Arkansas Poll 35
Louisiana 42-45* 44-40 Rasmussen 40
Montana 52-35* 52-35 PPP 33
North Carolina 45-41 47-40 Rasmussen 43
South Dakota n/a n/a No polling since Sept. 32
West Virginia 48-38* 50-36 PPP 25

 

Two Republicans seem to have clear leads in the open seats in Montana and West Virginia. You can probably add the open seat in South Dakota to that list. In Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, Democratic incumbents are well under 50 percent and in some polls are trailing Republicans. It's highly unusual for an incumbent senator to run behind in a poll and a danger sign for an incumbent to poll 50 percent. Only in Alaska does the incumbent Democrat, Mark Begich, have a clear lead; but the leading Republicans, Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan, do not have high name identification, and the most recent poll was conducted in August, before the Obamacare rollout. Obviously Democrats are in serious danger of losing six of these seats and not in a strong position in the seventh.

Two months ago, not many analysts were paying much attention to the possibility that Republicans might win Senate seats in states carried by Obama in 2012. Now many are. The following numbers show why.

State Poll average Most recent public poll Polling firm Obama job approval rating
Colorado 42-46* 42-46 PPP 42
Iowa 39-42* 40-43 Quinnipiac 42
Michigan 39-38 37-35 Rasmussen 48
New Hampshire 42-46 44-44 Purple Strategies 45
Virginia 29-50 37-51 Rasmussen 46

 

There are more undecideds in the open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan than in the races involving incumbent Sens. Mark Udall and Shaheen in Colorado and New Hampshire, respectively. Only Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia has a significant lead and beats the 50-percent mark, though not by much. Obama 2013 approval numbers are higher here than in the 2012 Romney states listed above, but are all still below 50 percent.

In many Senate race cycles, almost all the close races fall to one party. Based on these numbers, the best result for Democrats would be to lose 3 seats and the worst case would be to lose 11. So the Senate could be anywhere from 52-48 Democratic to 56-44 Republican. The numbers right now look favorable for Republicans, but they could change — and they don’t take into account Republicans’ demonstrated capacity to nominate unelectable candidates in winnable races.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia
KEYWORDS: 113th; 2014election; 2014midterms; 2014polls; 2016election; barone; election2014; election2016; senate2014election; senateraces
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1 posted on 02/09/2014 6:12:37 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem

Worry. They still have plenty of time to blow it.


2 posted on 02/09/2014 6:13:19 PM PST by cableguymn (It's time for a second political party.)
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To: neverdem
Ann Romney photo: Ann Romney 2 ann_romney-2.jpg

At this time in 2012, Ann Romney was shopping for White House drapes. Way too much time for Rinos to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

3 posted on 02/09/2014 6:16:38 PM PST by Snickering Hound
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To: cableguymn

Whether they blow it or not, with candidates like Brown, the Dems can’t lose.


4 posted on 02/09/2014 6:18:43 PM PST by Yogafist
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To: neverdem

2 replies so far, both whiners. I honestly wonder why those types bother to post at all.


5 posted on 02/09/2014 6:19:51 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: neverdem

“We’ll see what the president’s schedule is, we’ll see what my schedule is,” Udall said. “But Coloradans are going to reelect me based on my record, not the president’s record.”

-— Will enough voters be willing show disapproval of Obama & Democrats & their policies to vote out a Democrat senator?


6 posted on 02/09/2014 6:21:46 PM PST by SMGFan (Sarah Michelle Gellar is now on twitter @RealSMG)
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To: Impy

One is not necessarily a whiner to point out that in 2010, we nominated inexperienced candidates. There were good loyal FREEPERS that said the Republican candidate in Nevada made serious gaffes (and we know how conservatives who make mistakes or don’t think about what they are saying are treated by the MSM).


7 posted on 02/09/2014 6:24:58 PM PST by Maine Mariner
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To: Yogafist

Brown is a pro gay marriage, pro abortion democrat.


8 posted on 02/09/2014 6:28:41 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: Impy

what? I’m not a winner? how bout a realist. The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.


9 posted on 02/09/2014 6:31:26 PM PST by cableguymn (It's time for a second political party.)
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To: cableguymn

We have to hold on to KY and GA.


10 posted on 02/09/2014 6:33:07 PM PST by Perdogg (Ted Cruz-Rand Paul 2016)
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To: Maine Mariner

Angle was a horrible candidate, some of us warned people about that before she was nominated.


11 posted on 02/09/2014 6:41:15 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: neverdem

I think Virginia gov 2013 (McAwful) shows the future for Dem strategy.

If they can funnel enough $$ to a competent libertarian, they have a good shot at winning races with a Clintonian plurality.

The 6% libertarian vote in Indiana 2012 helped sink Murdoch, I doubt more than a trifling amount would have gone to Obama Joe if there were only two candidates.

The Republican “brand” isn’t too inspiring for a fair number of folks these days, as evidenced by FR.


12 posted on 02/09/2014 6:42:25 PM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: neverdem

Can these people not do a simple search. BILL CASSIDY, not John Cassidy. Sheesh.


13 posted on 02/09/2014 6:43:14 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: neverdem

WV Obama approval rating at 25%. War on coal maybe?


14 posted on 02/09/2014 6:43:44 PM PST by umgud (2A can't survive dem majorities)
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To: neverdem

Alaska 40-47* 39-50 Hays

Hays pulled that right out of their smelly Obama. It’s a four point race.


15 posted on 02/09/2014 6:44:48 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: cableguymn

The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.

If you like what we have, just keep it up. You can keep them.
That is one promise Obama and the democrats will work hard to deliver on.


16 posted on 02/09/2014 6:44:49 PM PST by billhilly (Has Pelosi read it yet?)
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To: cableguymn

The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.

If you like what we have, just keep it up. You can keep them.
That is one promise Obama and the democrats will work hard to deliver on.


17 posted on 02/09/2014 6:45:17 PM PST by billhilly (Has Pelosi read it yet?)
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To: cableguymn

Forgive me. I’m just tired of the dime a dozen “pubbies will blow it/Reid will steal it” ect. ect. type posts on every election thread.


18 posted on 02/09/2014 6:46:44 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: neverdem

I use to trust Barone’s analysis until he predicted Romney would beat Obama in 2012. He’s still one of the best though. The GOP can still blow this easily.


19 posted on 02/09/2014 6:46:52 PM PST by OrangeHoof (2001-2008: "Dissent Is Patriotism!" 2009-2016: "Dissent Is Racism!")
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To: Perdogg

We’ll have Georgia. Nunn only polls well because the field is very divided. in the end, it will be just smoke without fire. The Democrat Party in Georgia is bankrupt and minorities stay home in midterms.


20 posted on 02/09/2014 6:47:34 PM PST by Viennacon
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To: Perdogg

McConnell is losing to the democrat. He has terrible approval in KY among conservatives, and that is what is giving Grimes the edge over him in the polls.


21 posted on 02/09/2014 6:49:46 PM PST by xzins ( Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for victory!)
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To: neverdem

Key here is whether the GOP nominees will be able to stay on message or will the bizarre urge to make offhanded comments pertaining to rape overtake them. I love the TEA Party movement, TP-backed candidates often commit unforced errors that show they’re not ready for prime time.


22 posted on 02/09/2014 6:52:24 PM PST by ScottinVA (Obama is so far in over his head, even his ears are beneath the water level.)
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To: cripplecreek
He straddles the fence - or at least tries to on abortion:

Authored bill for 24-hour waiting period for abortion

Brown has angered abortion-rights groups with acts like his cosponsorship of the Women's Right to Know Act, which would require a woman to wait 24 hours before having an abortion and to review pictures and information detailing the developmental progress of her fetus.

My problem with this is that abortion is murder - flat out. A human being's life, NOT something called a fetus, is terminated. If anything can be worse then it is that it is terminated by the choice of the one person God and nature have chosen to protect it throughout it's life - the mother.

Women abdicating what should be extremely honored positions in our society has led to a greatly diminished culture. I blame Hugh Hefner for one - turning women into no-consequences sex objects - although he clearly was only a symptom and hardly the only cause.

I guess this is my soapbox - abortion. It gets me worked up.

23 posted on 02/09/2014 6:53:00 PM PST by Aria ( 2008 & 2012 weren't elections - they were coup d'etats.)
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To: ScottinVA

They need to be sent to some kind of week long total immersion boot camp where some kind of Patton type (Dana Loesch maybe?) hammers on them for 120 hours straight.


24 posted on 02/09/2014 6:55:09 PM PST by nascarnation (I'm hiring Jack Palladino to investigate Baraq's golf scores.)
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To: OrangeHoof
I remember Barone's optimism in '12.

I'm guessing, though, that he was looking at actual numbers rather than accounting for widespread voter fraud.

Republicans will do that again at their peril.

25 posted on 02/09/2014 7:00:38 PM PST by daler
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To: Aria
He wants republicans to be more inclusive of Abortion supporters.

Scott Brown criticizes GOP Abortion Stance
26 posted on 02/09/2014 7:10:35 PM PST by cripplecreek (REMEMBER THE RIVER RAISIN!)
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To: nascarnation

Good points.


27 posted on 02/09/2014 7:13:35 PM PST by 4Liberty (Optimal institutions - optimal economy.)
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To: Impy

Sometimes I’m surprised that many Freepers are willing to accept unvetted candidates or unattractive candidates (not in physical sense, but in demeanor, etc) as long as the candidates are spewing conservative messages.


28 posted on 02/09/2014 7:15:07 PM PST by paudio (Liberals teach Whites about guilt and shame much better than Christian churches do...)
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To: neverdem

Is this the same Michael Barone that predicted Romney would win in 2012?


29 posted on 02/09/2014 7:22:24 PM PST by Arm_Bears (Shoot cops that shoot dogs.)
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To: neverdem

If we fight smart, instead of vindictive and angry, we can pull this off.


30 posted on 02/09/2014 7:29:00 PM PST by Paradox (Unexpected things coming for the next few years.)
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To: neverdem

They looked great in 2012 too and the end result was disaster. I love how we brag and brag about how great we are until we see the results.


31 posted on 02/09/2014 7:38:04 PM PST by napscoordinator ( Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the country!)
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To: neverdem

Oh Lord. Just noticed Scott Brown is running again in another state. Can’t we get rid of him? Somebody better must be living in New Hampshire and not some carpetbagger. If he were conservative that would be one thing, but I think his running in NH is a joke.


32 posted on 02/09/2014 7:40:05 PM PST by napscoordinator ( Santorum-Bachmann 2016 for the future of the country!)
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To: neverdem

0bama’s approval levels spiked up just in time for the Nov 2012 elections and his army of LIVs voted down ticket. 0bama’s approval rating will probably be the most important determinant, unless the Dems voter fraud schemes can steal away 5% or more.


33 posted on 02/09/2014 7:46:32 PM PST by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est. New US economy: Fascism on top, Socialism on the bottom.)
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To: Maine Mariner

I wrote the only biography of Harry Reid and know the 2010 Nevada race well. i suggest you read up on Republicans For Reid and what the establishment repubs did to Angle before you blather on.


34 posted on 02/09/2014 7:49:10 PM PST by DaxtonBrown (http://www.futurnamics.com/reid.php)
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To: DaxtonBrown

thank you


35 posted on 02/09/2014 8:09:46 PM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: neverdem

Who believes a poll from Dem party push pollsters PPP!These are the frauds who ran a series of phony polls showing Ken C getting crushed in VA and he lost by only 2 pts because PPP help create a false reality which even the conservative media-pushed by showing these phont polls resukts which then
intentionally deflated the Gop base !


36 posted on 02/09/2014 8:14:56 PM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: Maine Mariner

Do you have any idea how crooked Clark county NV is ?
its run by Union goons from Casinos and the mob.
They bussed in illegals and employees from the casinos to the polls !
Reid is a casino gangster bagman !
His is an actual character in the movie Casino !
He is the crooked County Casino official in the movie.


37 posted on 02/09/2014 8:20:59 PM PST by ncalburt ( Amnesty-media out in full force)
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To: neverdem

Barrone is pro amnesty, so he doesn’t factor that into his analyses.

When Boehner gets amnesty, which he and Goodlatte are now planning to do after the primaries, all those poll numbers will go down the tubes.


38 posted on 02/09/2014 8:27:42 PM PST by oldbill
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To: Viennacon

MOst Alaskans I talk to say Begich has always been a fool. He
started photo radar which ran him outta politics in late 90’s. He votes with Obama all the time. But most of all, he voted for Obama Care and they ain’t gonna forgive that one. Begich is toast.


39 posted on 02/09/2014 8:35:50 PM PST by Eska
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To: DaxtonBrown

Thanks for writing you book on Reid.

When I read your book I will be looking for why the other Democrat Senators never challenge Reid.


40 posted on 02/09/2014 8:48:59 PM PST by Graewoulf (Democrats' Obamacare Socialist Health Insur. Tax violates U.S. Constitution AND Anti-Trust Law.)
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To: neverdem

But then I remember that in the closing days of the 2012 campaign Barone predicted a blowout win for Romney, and....


41 posted on 02/09/2014 8:55:28 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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To: DaxtonBrown
i suggest you read up on Republicans For Reid and what the establishment repubs did to Angle before you blather on.

Angle did plenty to herself in that race and she was one of the best supported and financed candidates running against one of the most unpopular incumbents. Even Rove's groups and the NRSC dumped a lot of cash into that race to defeat Reid, but difficult to overcome all of Angle's missteps.

That doesn't excuse some of the Nevada GOP politicians coming out and supporting Reid, however. If they don't like Angle, just don't do anything to help her if they feel that strongly...just keep quiet and sit it out - but good grief, don't come out and openly back Reid.

42 posted on 02/09/2014 9:29:55 PM PST by Republican Wildcat
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To: paudio

Indeed. Usually it’s because a certain group or person (Tea Party Express or Mark Levin for example) that people put way too much stock in starts pushing the candidate.


43 posted on 02/09/2014 9:31:27 PM PST by Impy (RED=COMMUNIST, NOT REPUBLICAN)
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To: OrangeHoof

There were just too many like Barone who predicted Mitt. The trouble was the dem cheat was just too effective especially in Ohio and Floriduh, which was impossible to predict unless they had some insider dem info.

We have to face two realities. First is the dems have perfected the cheat enough to overcome say 5%. Second, the “stay at home, purists” and libertarians who got suckered by dem monied libertarians kept it a less than 5%.

I was not a Mitt supporter by any stretch, but even he would have been night and day better that what we face day in, day out now.


44 posted on 02/09/2014 9:51:08 PM PST by X-spurt (CRUZ missile - armed and ready.)
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To: cableguymn

I’m From Louisiana and I say anyone but a Landrieu,remember she got the job illegally the first time.


45 posted on 02/09/2014 11:48:42 PM PST by onthegulf
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To: neverdem

Shamnesty trumps all. It ain’t over till it’s over. The Gelded OLD Pansies can’t find their way out of a wet paper bag.


46 posted on 02/10/2014 1:58:03 AM PST by VRWC For Truth (Roberts has perverted the Constitution)
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To: nascarnation

Good idea.


47 posted on 02/10/2014 3:59:09 AM PST by LS ('Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually.' Hendrix)
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To: All
DEMOCRAT CANDIDATES RUNNING AWAY FROM TOXIC OBAMA Sen. Mark Udall Udall (DIM-COLO) is scared to appear w/ Obama. “We’ll see what the president’s schedule is, we’ll see what my schedule is. Coloradans are going to reelect me based on my record, not the president’s record.”

==========================================

RUNNING ON YOUR RECORD SENATOR UDALL? THAT'S NICE. Vote-crazed Sen. Mark Udall, facing reelection, was caught on tape parroting The Big Lie: "like your plan, keep your plan" b/c some 330,000 Coloradans received cancelation notices lock-stepping Udall promised they wouldn’t.

Udall’s crazed response was to lean on state insurance regulators to change their numbers by changing their vocabulary. Frantic Udall argued plans shouldn’t be counted as canceled if a person was eligible to buy a pricier ACA compliant plan.

The insurance regulator resisted Udall’s psychotic arguments.

Then things got interesting. CompleteColorado.com obtained and reported on internal state emails of insurance official, Jo Donlin, stating the deranged Udall wanted to “trash” the state’s numbers....

Fearing he'd lose his seat, vote-crazed Udall harrassed Donlin, calling her repeatedly, and when she refused to bend, she received a “very hostile” call from Udall’s chief of staff (maybe more like a "threat"?).

Udall’s obsessed interference prompted demands for more information and for an investigation into his twisted conduct.

SAVED BY THE BELL Almost instantly, Colorado’s Department of Regulatory Affairs, which oversees the Division of Insurance, issued a statement claiming a "neutral and objective panel" investigated the matter and determined "Udall’s office did nothing improper and there was no intimidation."

(waiting for hysterical laughter to die down)

NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS Absolving deranged Senator Udall of culpability is the exact same MO used right before NJ Sen Torricell was forced out of office.

=================================================

VOTER REFERENCE GUIDE As far back as 2008, at the presidential debate in Nashville, Democrat candidate Obama advanced his signature healthcare plan---ultimately enacted, by an historic straight Democrat party-line vote, into the "Affordable Care Act"

QUOTING 2008 OBAMA: "No. 1, let me just repeat, if you’ve got a health care plan that you like, you can keep it. All I’m going to do is help you to lower the premiums on it. You’ll still have choice of doctor.” Repeated over and over ---- with the promise that every American family would be saving $2500.00 on healthcare costs.

Significantly, Obamba NEVER corrected lock-stepping Democrats, all reading from the same Democrat talking points, all of them repeating the same Democrat promises---over and over again.

===============================================

LOCK-STEPPING PARTY LOYALTY NOT SEEN SINCE 1930-40's ERA EUROPE Obama And The Dems marching in lockstep. The persistent Dumbocrat drumbeat ---- in obeisance to Obama ---- kept ringing reassuringly in our ears: "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan."

48 posted on 02/10/2014 4:59:34 AM PST by Liz
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Other info from Harper Polling:

According to the polls, which were conducted by the right-leaning Harper Polling,
Republicans hold leads in five of seven key U.S. Senate races. The other races
are either tied or show room for growth from GOP candidates.

The automated surveys from Harper show Sens. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), Mark Pryor (D-Ark.)
and Mary Landrieu (D-La.) trailing their Republican opponents. Republicans also
lead open races with Democratic retirements in Montana and Michigan.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/polls-gop-retaking-senate-election-probability-2014-2#ixzz2svNSzwXI

*******
Election Projections:

http://www.electionprojection.com/blog/archives/jan14/senate-previews-complete-gop-set-to-gain-6-seats-earn-majorit-012914.php

The six projected GOP takeovers are:
•Arkansas - Incumbent: Mark Pryor
•Michigan - Open seat (Carl Levin)
•Montana - Open seat (Max Baucus)
•North Carolina - Incumbent: Kay Hagan
•South Dakota - Open seat (Tim Johnson)
•West Virginia - Open seat (Jay Rockefeller)

Three other states that could swing the GOP’s way are:
•Alaska - Incumbent: Mark Begich
•Iowa - Open seat (Tom Harkin)
•Louisiana - Incumbent: Mary Landrieu


49 posted on 02/10/2014 5:16:38 AM PST by deport
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To: Impy

2 replies so far, both whiners. I honestly wonder why those types bother to post at all.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
I’ve said the same thing. Why the hell do they even bother coming to Free Republic? Why don’t they just shut down the computer, turn on the TV and watch the View and Ellen Degeneres? If I hear “pulling defeat from the jaws of victory” one more time, I think I will vomit.


50 posted on 02/11/2014 10:58:34 AM PST by Din Maker
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