Senate race poll numbers look good for Republicans (Michael Barone)

Washington Examiner ^ | January 31, 2014 | Michael Barone

[neverdem]

The balance in the 2014 race for a majority in the Senate seems to have shifted -- toward the Republicans. Two polls released today showed Louisiana Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu trailing Republican challenger John Cassidy and New Hampshire Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen running even with former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Here is how Republicans are faring in seven seats that are up in states carried by Mitt Romney. I've shown the Real Clear Politics averages or, when that wasn't available, an average from the two most recent public polls (an asterisk means there wasn't an RCP average available). Following that is the most recent public poll and the polling firm which produced it. And I've added the Gallup 2013 Obama job approval numbers for each state, rounded off to integers.

In each comparison, the best known Republican candidate’s percentage is listed first.

State	Poll average	Most recent public poll	Polling firm	Obama job approval rating
Alaska	40-47*	39-50	Hays	33
Arkansas	40-40	37-36	Arkansas Poll	35
Louisiana	42-45*	44-40	Rasmussen	40
Montana	52-35*	52-35	PPP	33
North Carolina	45-41	47-40	Rasmussen	43
South Dakota	n/a	n/a	No polling since Sept.	32
West Virginia	48-38*	50-36	PPP	25

 

Two Republicans seem to have clear leads in the open seats in Montana and West Virginia. You can probably add the open seat in South Dakota to that list. In Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, Democratic incumbents are well under 50 percent and in some polls are trailing Republicans. It's highly unusual for an incumbent senator to run behind in a poll and a danger sign for an incumbent to poll 50 percent. Only in Alaska does the incumbent Democrat, Mark Begich, have a clear lead; but the leading Republicans, Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan, do not have high name identification, and the most recent poll was conducted in August, before the Obamacare rollout. Obviously Democrats are in serious danger of losing six of these seats and not in a strong position in the seventh.

Two months ago, not many analysts were paying much attention to the possibility that Republicans might win Senate seats in states carried by Obama in 2012. Now many are. The following numbers show why.

State	Poll average	Most recent public poll	Polling firm	Obama job approval rating
Colorado	42-46*	42-46	PPP	42
Iowa	39-42*	40-43	Quinnipiac	42
Michigan	39-38	37-35	Rasmussen	48
New Hampshire	42-46	44-44	Purple Strategies	45
Virginia	29-50	37-51	Rasmussen	46

 

There are more undecideds in the open-seat races in Iowa and Michigan than in the races involving incumbent Sens. Mark Udall and Shaheen in Colorado and New Hampshire, respectively. Only Sen. Mark Warner in Virginia has a significant lead and beats the 50-percent mark, though not by much. Obama 2013 approval numbers are higher here than in the 2012 Romney states listed above, but are all still below 50 percent.

In many Senate race cycles, almost all the close races fall to one party. Based on these numbers, the best result for Democrats would be to lose 3 seats and the worst case would be to lose 11. So the Senate could be anywhere from 52-48 Democratic to 56-44 Republican. The numbers right now look favorable for Republicans, but they could change — and they don’t take into account Republicans’ demonstrated capacity to nominate unelectable candidates in winnable races.

[cableguymn]

Worry. They still have plenty of time to blow it.

[Snickering Hound]

At this time in 2012, Ann Romney was shopping for White House drapes. Way too much time for Rinos to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.

[Yogafist]

Whether they blow it or not, with candidates like Brown, the Dems can’t lose.

[Impy]

2 replies so far, both whiners. I honestly wonder why those types bother to post at all.

[SMGFan]

“We’ll see what the president’s schedule is, we’ll see what my schedule is,” Udall said. “But Coloradans are going to reelect me based on my record, not the president’s record.”

-— Will enough voters be willing show disapproval of Obama & Democrats & their policies to vote out a Democrat senator?

[Maine Mariner]

One is not necessarily a whiner to point out that in 2010, we nominated inexperienced candidates. There were good loyal FREEPERS that said the Republican candidate in Nevada made serious gaffes (and we know how conservatives who make mistakes or don’t think about what they are saying are treated by the MSM).

[cripplecreek]

Brown is a pro gay marriage, pro abortion democrat.

[cableguymn]

what? I’m not a winner? how bout a realist. The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.

[Perdogg]

We have to hold on to KY and GA.

[Impy]

Angle was a horrible candidate, some of us warned people about that before she was nominated.

[nascarnation]

I think Virginia gov 2013 (McAwful) shows the future for Dem strategy.

If they can funnel enough $$ to a competent libertarian, they have a good shot at winning races with a Clintonian plurality.

The 6% libertarian vote in Indiana 2012 helped sink Murdoch, I doubt more than a trifling amount would have gone to Obama Joe if there were only two candidates.

The Republican “brand” isn’t too inspiring for a fair number of folks these days, as evidenced by FR.

[Viennacon]

Can these people not do a simple search. BILL CASSIDY, not John Cassidy. Sheesh.

[umgud]

WV Obama approval rating at 25%. War on coal maybe?

[Viennacon]

Alaska 40-47* 39-50 Hays

Hays pulled that right out of their smelly Obama. It’s a four point race.

[billhilly]

The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.

If you like what we have, just keep it up. You can keep them.
That is one promise Obama and the democrats will work hard to deliver on.

[billhilly]

The pub party gives me very little reason to get excited.

If you like what we have, just keep it up. You can keep them.
That is one promise Obama and the democrats will work hard to deliver on.

[Impy]

Forgive me. I’m just tired of the dime a dozen “pubbies will blow it/Reid will steal it” ect. ect. type posts on every election thread.

[OrangeHoof]

I use to trust Barone’s analysis until he predicted Romney would beat Obama in 2012. He’s still one of the best though. The GOP can still blow this easily.

[Viennacon]

We’ll have Georgia. Nunn only polls well because the field is very divided. in the end, it will be just smoke without fire. The Democrat Party in Georgia is bankrupt and minorities stay home in midterms.