Posted on 02/20/2014 5:24:45 AM PST by thackney
A few weeks ago, I produced two Senate analyses. One focused on the relationship between the president’s job approval, the fate of Senate Democrats during the 2010 and 2012 elections, and what that would mean if this relationship continues through 2014. The second looked at Republican vulnerability in 2016 using a similar standard.
The first piece concluded that, based on President Obama’s job approval rating, Democrats have substantial vulnerability in 2014. This vulnerability is deeper than many analysts are willing to consider right now. Over the past two cycles, the president’s job approval has explained 58 percent of the variance in competitive Senate races in any given state. Given Obama’s current weak numbers, this seemingly bodes poorly for Democrats. Remember, the midterm map is the “reddest” Senate map Democrats have had to defend while Obama has been president. Their overexposure makes it something of a perfect storm scenario if things do not improve. This doesn’t mean that the problems are insuperable for Democrats. It simply means that the playing field is stacked heavily against them.
The second piece took a somewhat different tack. Instead of just looking at the playing field for 2016, it used that playing field as the basis for a simulation run in a neutral year to help better quantify Republican exposure. It concluded that unless 2016 turned out to be a good Republican year overall, that Republicans would probably have to win 53 or 54 seats in 2014 to feel good about their chances of holding the Senate two years later.
The present article takes the technique used in the second piece and applies it to the playing field described in the first. In other words, this is a “Monte Carlo simulation” to try to better quantify the amount of exposure Democrats are under this time...
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Yes, like having the ability to swim like a dolphin or move like a bullfighter.
South Dakota- a very likely pickup.
West Virginia not a sure thing, but definitely tilting our way.
Montana- tilting our way. No idea how the appointment will effect things.
Arkansas- leaning slightly in our direction. Alaksa- a tossup, perhaps very slightly towards us. North Carolina- We're not helped by a field of third-stringers, but Kay Hagan is damaged and her fear is showing. Louisiana- This could go either way. Demographics help us, but Mary Landrieu has a knack for winning and Republicans aren't united yet. Kentucky- A tossup. Mitch McConnell has overstayed his welcome, but so has Obama. Michigan- A surprise near toss-up. The GOP nominee has raised money and avoided mistakes, while the 'Rat is little known and Obamacare is surprisingly unpopular. Still, Terry Lynn Land's disastrous campaign for Governor in 2010 has most Republicans nervous and 'Rats confident she'll blow it again. Georgia- Democrats have a potentially appealing nominee with a great name and insider support, while Republicans are left scrambling with no clear front-runner. New Hampshire- will Scott Brown run? That may make or break the race, as Jeanne Shaheen's popularity has slipped. Colorado- an outlier state, but Mark Udall is slipping and charges that he tried to cover up Obamacare registration numbers in the state don't help him at all. Republicans have a field of little-knowns.
Damn, I couldn’t get the columns to break.
Well done.
Thanks!
South Dakota- a very likely pickup.
West Virginia not a sure thing, but definitely tilting our way.
Montana- tilting our way. No idea how the appointment will effect things.
Arkansas- leaning slightly in our direction.
Alaksa- a tossup, perhaps very slightly towards us.
North Carolina- We’re not helped by a field of third-stringers, but Kay Hagan is damaged and her fear is showing.
Louisiana- This could go either way. Demographics help us, but Mary Landrieu has a knack for winning and Republicans aren’t united yet.
Kentucky- A tossup. Mitch McConnell has overstayed his welcome, but so has Obama.
Michigan- A surprise near toss-up. The GOP nominee has raised money and avoided mistakes, while the ‘Rat is little known and Obamacare is surprisingly unpopular. Still, Terry Lynn Land’s disastrous campaign for Governor in 2010 has most Republicans nervous and ‘Rats confident she’ll blow it again.
Georgia- Democrats have a potentially appealing nominee with a great name and insider support, while Republicans are left scrambling with no clear front-runner.
New Hampshire- will Scott Brown run? That may make or break the race, as Jeanne Shaheen’s popularity has slipped.
Colorado- an outlier state, but Mark Udall is slipping and charges that he tried to cover up Obamacare registration numbers in the state don’t help him at all. Republicans have a field of little-knowns.
Louisiana will be a different animal for sure. With the general being their primary
the democratic party can dump tons of money in it for her and ignore all the other
candidates and even some other states. Their State offices, gov. etc. are in 2015.
There was a poll released recently from WV. It’s not even close. Capito is leading by about 15% and Tennant, the Dem, is barely at 1/3rd of the vote.
As for Michigan, Republican Land has been leading consistently and Dem Peters just declared war on a lady battling leukemia. Stick a fork in him.
I was not surprised by Michigan, and it’s not a near toss up unless it’s in the “near” is in Land’s favor. 2-time statewide winning Republican versus a generic rat in what should be a good year, if we can’t win MI this year.....
I read unions will pour resources into WV, but I’m not worried, I think they’re wasting their money.
I wish Louisiana Republicans would get united so Cassidy can win in November without a runoff. Maness is going nowhere.
PPP poll in Iowa shows the Rat Braley with a 6 point lead against each of this three most serious challenger. I have no idea which we should go with.
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