Posted on 05/02/2014 3:00:31 PM PDT by blam
Climate Researchers Think We Could Be In For The Most Powerful El Niño In 16 Years
The Conversation UK
Agus Santoso and Shayne McGregor, The Conversation UK
May 2, 2014, 5:31 PM
We have only just moved into May and despite being seven months away from next summer in the southern hemisphere, climate researchers are seeing the beginnings of what could be the most powerful El Niño event since 1997/98.
An El Niño is a change in Pacific Ocean and atmosphere that typically causes drought, extreme heat and bushfires in Australia.
Last year was a neutral El Niño and we have been surprisingly lucky with only a few small El Niño’s since the 21st century started, despite having two of the hottest years on record globally in 2005 and 2010.
The last really big El Niño was in 1997/98. It is no coincidence that 1998 is the only remaining year from the past century that still sits in the top 10 for the hottest years, globally, on record.
By itself, research shows an El Niño event can raise the global average temperature for the following year by 0.1 to 0.2C. It is one of the reasons many climate scientists have been concerned about what could happen if another strong El Niño was to occur.
The way things are shaping up in 2014 we may be about to find out.
Strong El Niño on the cards
Over the past month and a half, three strong westerly wind blasts along the equator appear to have triggered ocean subsurface warming. The warming has intensified and rolled to the eastern equatorial Pacific — a strong sign of a developing El Niño.
But it is not the ocean warming by itself that is significant
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
Buy coffee (JO). Drought followed by drenching rains in Brazil. A gamble, of course; advice worth what you paid for it.
I thought Joe Bastardi was predicting a relatively short lived, mild El Nino? Who ya gonna trust, Joe or the globull alarmists?
The article doesn’t say who is floating this prediction. But I am disinclined to give much credit to “Climate Researchers.”
OMG!!! We are doomed.
http://www.iowafarmertoday.com/el-nino/image_a26e3156-9407-11e3-8e86-0019bb2963f4.html
A return of El Nino should lend itself to favorable growing conditions this year, says Art Douglas, a meteorologist with Creighton University in Omaha. He said ample moisture and more mild temperatures in July and August should boost crop production.
Why did they just mention drought in Australia?
http://www.agprofessional.com/news/El-Nino-is-back-Maybe-so-248872131.html
On Thursday, federal forecasters issued an “El Niño watch,” indicating a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop this summer or fall.
However, El Niño’s return isn’t guaranteed.
“While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall,” The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration said in their announcement. “If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely.”...
Climate researcher. Like an astrologer, without the credentials.
While the sun heats, the sun also cools.......
…………….reaching for my Poor Richards and farmers Almanac
Yes, it is great news. If it is anything like the El Niño of the Winter of 1997/98, the High Sierra of California will get a ton of snow which is where most of California gets its water.
“could be”
“typically”
“can”
“could happen”
“may be”
“strong sign”
“appear to have”
“... a 50 percent chance ...”
-
Coin toss?
Good! This was almost the snowiest, coldest winter here in decades. A good old El Niño will make for a milder, nicer winter here.
More devastating than any of that, it could possibly trigger a Midnight Oil reunion tour....
May I quote your predictions?
We can use the rain in CA.
Whaaa? Winds causing the ocean to warm - subsurface???
just damn. We need more taxes to stop those winds.
I tell you! We need to contact AlGore and his minions of enviro moon bats to bring this El Nino stuff to an end, before it is too late. Several several (yes, 2x) years ago Algore addressed a crowd here in CA of screaming enviro moon bats and told how when notified that El Nino was coming they were able to defeat El Nino (more excited screaming) and stop it dead in it’s track. In other words, another super sonic mega disaster El Nino was forecasted due to global warming and again nothing happened for which the ever ready Algore took full credit.
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