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Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years
The Market Oracle ^ | 5-11-2014 | Marc Lichfield - Investment U

Posted on 05/11/2014 6:59:26 PM PDT by blam

Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years

May 11, 2014 GMT
By: Investment_U

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: We had a bit of a scare in the markets last month. At one point, the S&P 500 fell more than 4%, causing some permabears to proudly proclaim that the "bubble" had burst.

Of course, they're not quite so vocal now that the market has rebounded and is back within 1% of its all-time high.

As you know, we're not market timers at Investment U and The Oxford Club. But I believe this market has a long way to run before the bulls stop making money.

Market History

Although this bull market is getting mature, it is not ready for the rocking chair. The bull has now been around for 63 months. That's longer than nine of the 15 bull markets since 1871.

Surprisingly, though, it still has five more months to go until it is average in terms of length - and 41 months before it reaches the post-World War II average.

Bull markets have been getting longer since the end of the War - a lot longer. Starting with the bull that began in 1949, bull markets have lasted an average of 104 months - or nearly nine years. That five-year old bull doesn't sound quite so old now, does it? Of the seven bull markets (including the current one) since then, this one ranks only fifth in terms of length.

From the low in 2009 at 666.79, to the all-time high of 1,897.28, the S&P 500 has risen 185% - a heck of a move. That's above the 163% average since 1871. However, the modern bull market (since the end of WWII) has averaged 259% gains.

Interestingly, three bull markets gained less than 100% while the other three were up 391%, 414% and 516%, respectively. Could the fact that the current one broke through the 100% barrier mean that it's headed significantly higher?

If the market simply performed according to the average modern day bull market, it would last another 3 1/2 years and rise 74%.

(snip)


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; investing; markets; stocks

1 posted on 05/11/2014 6:59:26 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam
Schiff: 2/3 of America to Lose Everything Because of This Crisis

"The crisis is imminent," Schiff said. "I don't think Obama is going to finish his second term without the bottom dropping out. And stock market investors are oblivious to the problems."

2 posted on 05/11/2014 7:01:04 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

‘Cause that is how much the Treasury is going debase our currency during that period?


3 posted on 05/11/2014 7:02:28 PM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: blam

Everyone here is on the same track - the rise of the stock market will coincide directly with the devastating depreciation hitting our currency. If this forecast we are going to have currency less stable than the Brasilian cruzeiro in short order.


4 posted on 05/11/2014 7:05:27 PM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: blam

The bottom line: Get out now! The suckers are being reeled in.


5 posted on 05/11/2014 7:07:12 PM PDT by jjotto ("Ya could look it up!")
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To: blam


6 posted on 05/11/2014 7:07:19 PM PDT by Chode (Stand UP and Be Counted, or line up and be numbered - *DTOM* -vvv- NO Pity for the LAZY - 86-44)
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To: blam

bfl


7 posted on 05/11/2014 7:12:38 PM PDT by FreedomPoster (Islam delenda est)
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To: blam
Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years

74%? A distinct possibility.
75%? Out of the question!! Are you mad?? That would be simply impossible!

8 posted on 05/11/2014 7:13:05 PM PDT by ClearCase_guy
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To: blam

“Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years”

Oh that’s an easy one, inflation. I think the 74% is a little
low. Might be closer to 400 maybe 500%. The only reason
it isn’t going down now is that inflation is keeping it
propped up. There is no real gains in the stock market
especially with 0.01% national growth. It’s all adjustments
for inflation.


9 posted on 05/11/2014 7:15:32 PM PDT by Slambat
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To: Little Ray
Exactly what I was going to say...someday a cup of coffee may cost 100 dollars, the coffee won't be worth more, the dollar will be worth less.

"Brother, can you spare a dime" will become "Brother, can you spare a hundred dollars"


10 posted on 05/11/2014 7:16:34 PM PDT by Bobalu (What cannot be programmed cannot be physics)
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To: blam

I guess we’re headed for a crash!


11 posted on 05/11/2014 8:04:05 PM PDT by Real Cynic No More (Border Fence Obamacare!)
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To: blam

Why Monkeys Could Fly Out of My Butt.


12 posted on 05/11/2014 8:04:35 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: jjotto

Every year we send more and more American money to China.

Last year we imported 440 million worth of Chinese goods.

Last year we exported only 122 worth, to China.

China continues to ever grow. America continues to go further into debt.

China can invest in America. Americans cannot truly invest in China - they must get a majority local owner.

Americans cannot buy land in China. Chinese can buy land in America.

We are selling off our own nation. Right now. The only reason prices are going up, is that we are selling off America to foreigners.

Bring back American manufacturing.


13 posted on 05/11/2014 8:17:18 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Sorry correction:

That is 440 billion imported to America last year, to 122 billion exported to China.

Bring back US manufacturing.


14 posted on 05/11/2014 8:20:55 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Bobalu
"Brother, can you spare a dime" will become "Brother, can you spare a hundred dollars"

And a Mercury dime will be worth at least a hundred dollars.

15 posted on 05/11/2014 8:41:03 PM PDT by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: SVTCobra03

Yes, I believe it will be worth that..or even more.

They call old silver quarters, half-dollars and dimes “Junk Silver” It is sold in bags and is a wonderful way to add precious metals to your SHTF store.

Much better to have old US silver coins than bar silver as it will be easier to barter with small amounts of silver. How do you trade large bars of silver for a fish dinner?

Gold is less desirable than silver because in a disaster situation gold will either become illegal, and thus confiscated, or they will add a huge tax for gold transactions.


16 posted on 05/11/2014 8:50:42 PM PDT by Bobalu (What cannot be programmed cannot be physics)
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To: blam

Much more upside to come...


17 posted on 05/11/2014 9:11:04 PM PDT by montag813
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To: blam

Gold is NOT a safe haven. It will fall. Bookmark this and see if what I have said is true.


18 posted on 05/11/2014 9:13:03 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: Caipirabob

“Everyone here is on the same track - the rise of the stock market will coincide directly with the devastating depreciation hitting our currency.”

It is worse than that; nothing drives stock prices up as much as the news of layoffs of American workers. If the stock market rises 74% over the next three years, our official unemployment rate will be 60%. During the Clinton years our overlords convinced the American people that the rising stock market was an indication of a strong American economy that benefited all Americans (even as we started to offshore an increasing amount of white-collar work); the last half dozen years have shown that was a lie.


19 posted on 05/12/2014 3:00:46 AM PDT by kearnyirish2 (Affirmative action is economic warfare against white males (and therefore white families).)
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To: blam

I seem to remember that whenever articles like this start appearing, the market crashes not long after.


20 posted on 05/12/2014 4:34:38 AM PDT by Age of Reason
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To: jjotto

You make a strong point with no substance..... where have you put the money you pulled out of stocks?


21 posted on 05/12/2014 4:39:00 AM PDT by bert ((K.E. N.P. N.C. +12 ..... History is a process, not an event)
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To: blam
If the market simply performed according to the average modern day bull market, it would last another 3 1/2 years and rise 74%.

We are in unprecedented times financially. How can any prediction based on past data have any meaning?

22 posted on 05/12/2014 4:39:18 AM PDT by Age of Reason
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To: blam
The stock market is 'up' because more dollars are chasing the same number of stocks.

It's ACTUALLY called 'inflation'.

23 posted on 05/12/2014 4:41:28 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Bobalu

All I know is what I see in the grocery store - and what I see in the grocery store says that Federal Inflation figures are bunk.


24 posted on 05/12/2014 6:07:40 AM PDT by Little Ray (How did I end up in this hand-basket, and why is it getting so hot?)
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To: blam

Interesting.


25 posted on 05/12/2014 7:06:07 AM PDT by Qwackertoo (Going into Politic Free Zone Momma Grizzly hibernation for a while after this week, maybe forever.)
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To: blam

Gambling advice.


26 posted on 05/12/2014 7:11:08 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Do you understand that trade deficits are imaginary.


27 posted on 05/13/2014 6:16:10 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

I disagree with you, strongly.

America needs to make stuff. Bring back American manufacturing now.

Stop importing everything from everywhere else.

Bring back jobs.


28 posted on 05/13/2014 7:52:48 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: blam

49 to 68 were real bull markets.
The others were just bubbles.

Every day water comes from the well, until it doesn’t.


29 posted on 05/13/2014 8:02:59 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
America needs to make stuff.

Maybe, but if a robot can make it, they won't be paying some mill-RAT $45 an hour.

Stop importing everything from everywhere else.

Stop importing oil from everywhere else, employ thousands of US citizens in the energy sector.

Make our biggest export illegal aliens.

30 posted on 05/13/2014 8:04:46 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month.)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

You’re gonna love this story(especially the ending)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101225345


31 posted on 05/13/2014 8:15:55 PM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Shall Not Be Infringed)
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To: RckyRaCoCo

Thanks.

Just bumping your post.

We really need to do something to even out, the very uneven situation currently between ourselves, and China.

Much appreciated.


32 posted on 05/13/2014 9:57:08 PM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
America needs to make stuff. Bring back American manufacturing now.
Stop importing everything from everywhere else.
Bring back jobs.

I agree. We need to make stuff. We need to stop importing everything from everywhere else. And we need to bring back jobs.

What would you like to manufacture? I have several items I would like to manufacture and market here. The item details are not yet important, but the process is.

I need to put together a thorough business plan in order to obtain financing for plant and equipment, materials, qualified labor, warehousing, distribution, marketing, and a few other minor details that escaped my initial flash of inspiration.

The lending group looks at my projected sales, projected revenues from sales, then they look at my projected production costs, and they laugh.

They look at my list of projected requirements for qualified human resources, and they laugh some more.

They look at the (mostly blank) environmental impact studies, the non-existent allocation of funds for union payoffs; bribes to various county, state, and federal agencies, for permission to do business in the USA; the omitted allocations for massive administrative and accounting functions; and they laugh some more.

Actually, by now, they are rolling on the floor, blowing coffee out their noses. And they still haven't looked at my brilliant marketing and distribution plans.

So, what is it that you want to manufacture here?

33 posted on 05/13/2014 10:57:23 PM PDT by meadsjn
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Do you purchase goods and/or services from others or do you make/serve everything totally by yourself?


34 posted on 05/14/2014 5:24:59 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
China will have it's day.

There have already been signs of cracks in their centrally-planned, many times over-built/over-subsidized economy, much of which is being done for perception over substance. Even with their lack of transparency(thanks to a state controlled media, one which ours is trying to emulate)success for a few will lead to greed/jealousy, followed by the usual corruption to retain power, and then much of that will find it's way to gov. officials. Someone will push it too far and they'll be exposed for the leeches they are...and all hell will break loose.

In the information age it will be hard to keep it from the masses there, many of whom still don't have a pot to piss in. For every 1 buying million dollar homes in Irvine, CA. there are a 1000000 back home working for a bowl of rice.

Maybe we can send over our chieftains of America's labor unions, community agitators, occupy Wall St., Arianna Huff 'n'puff and the like to organize the 99% in China?

It probably wouldn't work, but seeing Richard Trumka, Jon Leibowitz, the demorat party hierarchy and their multimillionaire media/follywood hypocrites standing in front of a tank...(and the aftermath)...might be good for a few laughs.

Still, if China's economy does become the dominant economy of the world(at least in the short term)there will be plenty of blame to go around where America's failures are concerned...

(gov. controlled education system, too much phony emphasis on diversity/tolerance/multiculturalism, laziness, stupidity, breakdown of family/community, dismissing faith, hollywood brainf$#@ing....)

...those may trump our own cesspool of greed/cronyism/corruption, all of which are weakening our standing in the world.

35 posted on 05/14/2014 9:41:27 AM PDT by RckyRaCoCo (Shall Not Be Infringed)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

America needs to make stuff. Like corn? shoes? What stuff?


36 posted on 05/21/2014 4:30:46 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

“Make” corn?

Come on now.

America needs to produce goods once again. Badly. We are being completely obliterated in trade right now, and our own companies are participating.

Bring back American manufacturing.


37 posted on 05/21/2014 4:41:26 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

Define goods. Should we make toothpicks, shoes, eyeglasses?


38 posted on 05/21/2014 6:15:22 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

Yes.

Our economy currently sends production elsewhere.

This wasn’t always the case. America used to make everything right here in America.

For the last generation, we have been sending all sorts of jobs all over the world, many to China.

This results in our economy shrinking. Our economy really needs to bring back jobs, to America.

So yes.

We should make toothpicks, shoes and eyeglasses.

And computers.

And phones. And everything else. Bring back US jobs.


39 posted on 05/21/2014 6:20:23 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network
Our economy currently sends production elsewhere.

Listen to how you define the problem, it is as if there is a central planner ordering production offshore. That isn't the case, at least not completely.

Government policy on regulations and taxation drives businesses to find the best "location" to produce. Sadly, that is often offshore. So step one is to reduce both regulation and taxation of productivity, but you've never advocated that.

Somehow you imagine that by fiat business can be ordered to produce what it is uneconomical to produce. See North Korea, Venezuela and California for examples of why that doesn't work.

Ask yourself: Why don't I produce everything I need myself? You'll be on your way to discovering comparative and absolute advantage.

40 posted on 05/21/2014 6:29:27 AM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: 1010RD

China methodically looks out for Chinese producers.

Our government needs to look out for American producers.

If the American producers do not want the help, then the US government should still look out for American producers, and let others step up and fill the bill.

China’s unemployment rate is (far) lower than America’s.

Nobody. Nobody, is doing even one little thing to fix that.

Nobody.


41 posted on 05/21/2014 6:47:07 AM PDT by Cringing Negativism Network (http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2013)
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To: Cringing Negativism Network

American government looking out for producers is the problem. Only in a free market is the consumer king. We’re all consumers. There is no such thing as a trade imbalance and never will be, unless you stole it.


42 posted on 05/21/2014 1:13:18 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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