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What the Hell? (Not looking good for Thad Cochran.)
TPM (Talking Points Memo) ^ | June 1, 2014 | John Marshall

Posted on 06/01/2014 2:36:53 PM PDT by Din Maker

There are two new polls of the Mississippi Senate primary - one released by a Republican pollster showing Thad Cochran with a slim 5 point lead (45%-40%), and one from a Democratic pollster leaked to TPM's Daniel Strauss showing McDaniel ahead 46% to 44%. Given margins of error and the inherent difficulties of polling a party primary in an off-year election, to me, these two soundings tell pretty much the same story. And it's an amazingly bad one for Thad Cochran on a couple levels.

On the first level, you don't want to be under 50% when you're getting primaried and your supporters pretty much by definition have a lesser enthusiasm and motivation level than your opponent's. But beyond that, I'm stunned that the Cochran campaign has managed to get so little mileage out of the whole "Constitutional Clayton" debacle.

McDaniel probably wasn't behind the decision to break into the nursing home where Cochran's invalid wife lives. It's almost unimaginable that anybody other than a few isolated doofuses could have thought this was a good idea. (She's reportedly in a persistent vegetative state, with very advanced dementia.) And he probably didn't know about it until after it happened - even if he may have learned about it before it became public knowledge. But the clown crew behind this caper are very much his people. Both literally and figuratively. And as I explained last week, the whole ridiculous idea of filming Cochran's wife was part of furthering a storyline that McDaniel's campaign was then aggressively pushing and leaking to various conservative media outlets.

Guilt by association is normally considered a bad method of evidentiary and moral reasoning. But it's usually more than good enough for campaign purposes. And this effort is so toxic, so politically radioactive, that just being in close proximity to it should be devastating.

In short, Cochran's team really should have been able to use this to bury McDaniel. And somehow they haven't. Amazingly, McDaniel seems to have suffered little if any damage from it. The internals of the GOP poll clearly show that the reaction to the incident has been negative and that, when asked, people say it's made them less likely to support McDaniel. But it just doesn't seem to show through in the topline numbers.

Maybe Cochran's time is just up. Perhaps the most telling number in the survey is "Do you support the goals and ideals of the Tea Party?" 55% say yes, 21% say no. That's a very good number for McDaniel to work with. But the mix of topline and internal numbers I referenced above suggests a major failure on Cochran's campaign's part. With a focused message about what the break-in represents and a mountain of campaign money dumped into the race, Cochran should have been able to bury McDaniel and I suspect they could have. But there's now only three days left and it hasn't happened.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: 2014midterms; mcdaniel; ms2014; senateraces
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There is another guy running on the GOP Ticket besides McDaniel and Cochran; can't remember his name. Can someone win with a plurality or does someone have to get 50% to avoid a run-off?
1 posted on 06/01/2014 2:36:53 PM PDT by Din Maker
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To: All


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2 posted on 06/01/2014 2:41:06 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Din Maker

Good question. Would like to know myself.


3 posted on 06/01/2014 2:41:13 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Din Maker

I’m still not convinced that the nursing home deal wasn’t a false flag to build sympathy.


4 posted on 06/01/2014 2:43:38 PM PDT by PAR35
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To: Lil Flower; Din Maker; Malichi; WXRGina; duffee; onyx; DrewsMum; Tupelo; mstar; jdirt; ...

MS Ping.


5 posted on 06/01/2014 2:45:49 PM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: Din Maker
The TEA party is dead, you stupid teabaggers!

</sarcasm>

6 posted on 06/01/2014 2:49:01 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: Din Maker

“Maybe Cochran’s time is just up.” You think, maybe? 40 years! Good grief!


7 posted on 06/01/2014 2:49:53 PM PDT by Shery (in APO Land)
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To: Din Maker; Black Agnes; WKB; wardaddy
McDaniel probably wasn't behind the decision to break into the nursing home where Cochran's invalid wife lives.

HE WAS NOT INVOLVED AT ALL.

Chris McDaniel is running a completely upbeat, positive campaign.

I personally know his one of his campaign manager's, too.

Those creeps did all that crap on their own.

8 posted on 06/01/2014 2:50:43 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: Din Maker

“...Can someone win with a plurality or does someone have to get 50% to avoid a run-off?”
*******************************************************************

A candidate in Mississippi this year needs to get 50% to avoid a runoff.


9 posted on 06/01/2014 2:51:25 PM PDT by House Atreides
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To: House Atreides

AH. K. Thanks for the heads up on that.

Will be interesting. Here’s hoping!


10 posted on 06/01/2014 2:53:30 PM PDT by RIghtwardHo
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To: Shery

“Maybe Cochran’s time is just up.” You think, maybe? 40 years! Good grief!
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
The author of the article, John Marshall, said that; not me.


11 posted on 06/01/2014 2:53:49 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: onyx
It took Cochran's people (ie Haley Barbour) three weeks to figure a way to spin this story the best way to hurt McDaniel at the polls. I hope its bit them in the butt and the frontside.
12 posted on 06/01/2014 2:54:38 PM PDT by vetvetdoug
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To: PAR35

Since the Thaddites sat on it for what they thought was a politically opportune moment, I tend to agree.


13 posted on 06/01/2014 2:55:24 PM PDT by Calvin Locke
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To: Din Maker

Do you suppose many voters didn’t know that this old goat is living with his “aide” while his wife languishes in that nursing home? Many Christians still think the promise he made to be faithful to her “Till death us do part” actually means till death.

After his surrender to Grant at Appomattox, Robert E. Lee went home to care faithfully for his invalid wife until her death. Then he cared for her sick mother until she too passed away. Duty was a guiding principle in Lee’s life. Today it’s the least appreciated of all the virtues.


14 posted on 06/01/2014 2:56:09 PM PDT by txrefugee
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To: House Atreides; All

A candidate in Mississippi this year needs to get 50% to avoid a runoff.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Wow; this thing could drag on for awhile. Thomas L. Carey is the third guy running in this race; he could draw enough votes to throw this into a run-off.


15 posted on 06/01/2014 2:59:30 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Black Agnes

Give that old lib geezer the BOOT!


16 posted on 06/01/2014 3:00:46 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: House Atreides

“...A candidate in Mississippi this year needs to get 50% to avoid a runoff.”
********************************************************************

And an interesting thing is that, for any federal office runoffs, Mississippi will be using “ranked choice ballots” for overseas and out-of-state military voters to use. See details in the linked article. Our military voters need to clearly understand that they will get those “runoff” ballots at the same time they get their primary ballot and need to complete that and return it along with their primary ballot.

http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/overseas-voters-from-5-states-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-ballots-in-2014-congressional-election/


17 posted on 06/01/2014 3:01:30 PM PDT by House Atreides
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To: txrefugee; All

Do you suppose many voters didn’t know that this old goat is living with his “aide” while his wife languishes in that nursing home?
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Not sure. Let’s ask the good folks from the Magnolia State. How about it folks? Is this pretty much common knowledge?


18 posted on 06/01/2014 3:02:59 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

I don’t know how anyone would gain an advantage by filming/photographing the invalid wife of one’s opponent.

Hence I don’t see why mcdaniel would be behind it.

Lone wacko did it imo.

why would anyone think that filming/photgraphing an opponent’s invalid wife would help?


19 posted on 06/01/2014 3:06:20 PM PDT by Principled (Obama: Unblemished by success.)
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To: Din Maker

Is this the guy that had that incident with the blogger over his wife?


20 posted on 06/01/2014 3:10:48 PM PDT by F15Eagle (1Jn4:15;5:4-5,11-13;Mt27:50-54;Mk15:33-34;Jn3:17-18,6:69,11:25,14:6,20:31;Ro10:8-11;1Tm2:5-6;Ti3:4-7)
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To: Din Maker
Go home Thad, go!! home
21 posted on 06/01/2014 3:18:38 PM PDT by GeronL (Vote for Conservatives not for Republicans)
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To: Din Maker
But the clown crew behind this caper are very much his people.

If he hasn't already, McDaniel should come out and say these guys should be hung by their testicles from the nearest barn door.

22 posted on 06/01/2014 3:26:51 PM PDT by Oatka (This is America. Assimilate or evaporate.)
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To: Din Maker

Can someone win with a plurality or does someone have to get 50% to avoid a run-off?

***************

It’s a majority or 50% plus is my reading. The 3rd candidate, Thomas L Cary’
in one poll I saw had 3% or under and something like 12% were undecided. So in
effect the undecideds will make the outcome decision.

Here are some recent polls data and I’m sure there is other polls out there.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ms/mississippi_senate_republican_primary-4188.html


23 posted on 06/01/2014 3:27:16 PM PDT by deport
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To: Din Maker

DEMOCRATS in Mississippi?......

I thought the KKK was dead.. there..
MAybe not?..


24 posted on 06/01/2014 3:44:52 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole..)
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To: Oatka

If you are a McDaniel supporter there is no way he could have been involved, but there is also no doubt that anything Thad is accused of is dead certain to be true.

Folks, you’re failing the logic portion of the test. We’ll all know on Tuesday.


25 posted on 06/01/2014 3:47:11 PM PDT by billhilly (Its OK, the left hated Bush.)
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To: vetvetdoug
It took Cochran's people (ie Haley Barbour) three weeks to figure a way to spin this story the best way to hurt McDaniel at the polls. I hope its bit them in the butt and the frontside.

Me too!

God bless and keep you, dearest!

26 posted on 06/01/2014 3:51:20 PM PDT by onyx (Please Support Free Republic - Donate Monthly! If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, Let Me know!)
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To: deport

12% were undecided. So in effect the undecideds will make the outcome decision.
____________________________________________________________________________________________

And political observers will tell you that undecideds break for the Challenger by 80%. Thad Cochran has been around 50 years. If people are still “undecided” on whether or not to keep him in the Senate, they will not vote for him on Tuesday. If 50 years time isn’t enough to convince you, two more days won’t do it.


27 posted on 06/01/2014 4:02:18 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

Does anyone really believe that 12% of the GOP voters are still undecided? Also.....If one of the 3 candidates has to get 50% of the votes plus 1 to avoid a run-off, there is no way this will be decided Tuesday. We’re gonna have a run-off.


28 posted on 06/01/2014 4:06:27 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: billhilly

We’ll all know on Tuesday.
________________________________________________

Maybe not. See Post #28.


29 posted on 06/01/2014 4:08:52 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

I’d like to see a sample ballot to know who is in place #1 on the ballot, #2 on the ballot and #3 on the ballot.

Whomever is #1 on the ballot usually picks up a few “lazy” votes.


30 posted on 06/01/2014 4:11:03 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

Again, logic comes into this situation. The challenger is looking forward to a long career in Washington, perhaps as long as Cochran. Although his campaign ads criticize Cochran for voting for his own pay raises, does anyone who knows how this system works expect McDaniel to refuse pay raises?

If I have to vote for McDaniel to prevent a democrat from winning the seat, I will, but not in this primary. I’ve looked both men in the eye, more than once, and I’m not convinced that all that glitters is gold. Well, out of state Gold is another matter.


31 posted on 06/01/2014 4:46:07 PM PDT by billhilly (Its OK, the left hated Bush.)
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To: billhilly; All

I predict that if Thad wins Tuesday and wins in November, he will serve about 6 months and then step down AFTER he has made a deal with the Republican Governor of Mississippi to appoint Haley Barbour to that Senate seat to finish out his Term. Then, you’ll have ol’ “Twangy-tongue Barbour” for another 20 years unless the cholesterol gets him first and he has a massive heart attack from too many hot dogs and milk shakes. I’m telling you, Thad is not running to serve 6 more years. This is all planned out for Haley Barbour to get that Senate seat.


32 posted on 06/01/2014 4:52:59 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

Come ON, Democrats...Thad Cochran needs your cross-over votes in this open primary to slap away another Tea Party gnat...Thad needs you on Tuesday! (Please don’t make me put an /s tag on that post...please.)


33 posted on 06/01/2014 4:56:55 PM PDT by who knows what evil? (Yehovah saved more animals than people on the ark...www.siameserescue.org.)
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To: House Atreides

Interesting about the ‘ranked choice ballots’. That approach may become used more over time.

Do you know the ballot placing for the Senate race in MS? I’ve looked but don’t fine a
sample ballot that is being used. That info should be available as ballots are
already printed and the candidate draw was sometime back.


34 posted on 06/01/2014 5:28:02 PM PDT by deport
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To: Din Maker

Here is a little character tester. If McDaniel loses the primary and announces his support for Thad, which is likely, what will be the reaction of his backers? How about the posters on FR. Surely very few of them are Mississippians, so they will have no dog in this fight in such a case. What about the out of state big spenders who have funded his campaign. Interesting, isn’t it?


35 posted on 06/01/2014 5:34:11 PM PDT by billhilly (Its OK, the left hated Bush.)
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To: Din Maker

The 80% has been around for many years I believe. However there are other
studies that contridict that conclusion especially in Senate races.

In any case MS seems to possibly be on the verge of electing a new Senator.
Texas made some changes this time by letting some go that had been in office for years.
Every so often change seems to come around as people say enough.

Tuesday will be an interesting day in that there are several states with primaries.
Alabama - California - Iowa - Mississippi - Montana -
New Jersey - South Dakota


36 posted on 06/01/2014 5:39:51 PM PDT by deport
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To: Din Maker
In short, Cochran's team really should have been able to use this to bury McDaniel. And somehow they haven't.

Maybe Thud's team wasn't sure at first that it might not have been one of HIS folks, trying to gin up sympathy.

37 posted on 06/01/2014 5:45:53 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: deport

“...Do you know the ballot placing for the Senate race in MS? I’ve looked but don’t fine a
sample ballot that is being used....”
******************************************************************

Here’s one:

http://www.desotocountyms.gov/DocumentCenter/View/620

At least in this county the candidates are listed by last name alphabetically.


38 posted on 06/01/2014 6:34:31 PM PDT by House Atreides
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To: RIghtwardHo

Cochran has failed to crush McDaniel with the fake nursing home scandal.
McDaniel has taken a sight lead. 80% of undecided’s will break for him.


39 posted on 06/01/2014 6:36:23 PM PDT by tennmountainman (Just Say No To Obamacare)
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To: House Atreides

At least in this county the candidates are listed by last name alphabetically.

***************

Thanks. Maybe that is the way MS does it.


40 posted on 06/01/2014 6:37:22 PM PDT by deport
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To: Din Maker
Not sure. Let’s ask the good folks from the Magnolia State. How about it folks? Is this pretty much common knowledge?

It is virtually unknown and never reported. Imagine that.

41 posted on 06/01/2014 7:06:04 PM PDT by houeto (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate)
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To: Din Maker

Then there is the possibility that Cochran will pull a Murkowski.


42 posted on 06/01/2014 11:19:24 PM PDT by bjorn14 (Woe to those who call good evil and evil good. Isaiah 5:20)
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To: billhilly; Black Agnes

IF McDaniel loses, and supports Cochran, I believe McDaniel’s supporters will, either, vote for Cochran, or stay home.

I wonder what effect the new voter ID law will have, though.


43 posted on 06/01/2014 11:37:51 PM PDT by dixiechick2000
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To: bjorn14

Then there is the possibility that Cochran will pull a Murkowski.
__________________________________________________________________________________

Hey, if Chris loses the Primary, I hope he pulls a Murkowski or runs as an Independent. If the RINOs can do it.................


44 posted on 06/02/2014 3:33:08 AM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: billhilly

Sarah Palin endorsed John McCain, as I’m sure you know already. She probably had to out of courtesy. Do you think Conservatives and FReepers rushed to support that idiot? “Character test” has nothing to do with it. If you choose to befriend a child-molester, that doesn’t mean I have to befriend a child-molester. Character test??? Bulls**t!


45 posted on 06/02/2014 3:37:43 AM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: House Atreides

Thank you. You are a man who is really “in the know”. One can only hope that will garner enough votes for Carey to put this into a run-off. I’m just glad Thad is not in the top spot. Thanks again.


46 posted on 06/02/2014 3:43:52 AM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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To: Din Maker

I guess you’ll be voting for McDaniel. Hope you don’t get caught.


47 posted on 06/02/2014 5:22:59 AM PDT by billhilly (Its OK, the left hated Bush.)
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To: Din Maker

I guess you’ll be voting for McDaniel. Hope you don’t get caught.


48 posted on 06/02/2014 5:23:37 AM PDT by billhilly (Its OK, the left hated Bush.)
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To: Din Maker

Runoffs usually go to the challenger!!


49 posted on 06/02/2014 6:01:40 AM PDT by ontap
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To: ontap

Runoffs usually go to the challenger!!
___________________________________________________________

Exactly. Ask Ted Cruz and Dan Patrick in Texas.


50 posted on 06/02/2014 6:14:28 AM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016. Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic)
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