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Poll: Tea Party's McDaniel Takes Slight Lead Over Thad Cochran Heading Into Runoff
breitbart.com ^ | 6/8/14 | Matthew Boyle

Posted on 06/09/2014 5:44:40 AM PDT by cotton1706

Tea Party-backed State Sen. Chris McDaniel has taken a slight lead — within the margin of error — in a new poll from Chism Strategies over 42-year incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS).

The survey's results, announced on Saturday, show McDaniel with a 50.6 percent to 47.6 percent lead over Cochran, with 1.8 percent undecided. The survey was conducted on Thursday — two days after McDaniel bested Cochran in the popular vote with neither candidate topping 50 percent, forcing the race into a runoff — and it polled 832 likely GOP voters. The poll’s margin of error was 3.3 percent, putting McDaniel’s lead at the margin of error’s outer edge.

A memorandum that pollster Brad Chism released with the announcement says that equal percentages of McDaniel and Cochran supporters plan to return to the polls for the runoff and equal percentages believe their candidate will win.

In crosstabs that Chism released with the poll, an extraordinary amount of young voters voted for — and plan to continue to support — Cochran. Seventy-five percent of 18-35 year-olds voted for Cochran in the primary, compared to 25 percent who voted for McDaniel.

While McDaniel picks up some support from Cochran’s youth voters — 29 percent of 18-35 year-olds say they’ll vote for McDaniel in the runoff — Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Politics/Elections; US: Mississippi
KEYWORDS: elections; ms2014

1 posted on 06/09/2014 5:44:40 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706
Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters.

I find that very odd. I would love to see someone's explanation for why that might be.

2 posted on 06/09/2014 5:51:14 AM PDT by centurion316
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To: cotton1706

42 years of appeasing, simpering traitorous RINOism!

He should be ejected from the village and cast off into the frozen tundra to await Ole Scratch’s reckoning.


3 posted on 06/09/2014 5:52:23 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: centurion316

I’ll bet his handlers have him bombarding twitter with all kinds of fake promises like “forgiven school loans”, legalization of Pot, and all the other important 18-35 YO questions of the day.


4 posted on 06/09/2014 5:53:54 AM PDT by Gaffer
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To: cotton1706
NOTE: They polled 832 likely GOP voters. They did not poll the Democrats that Cochran and Barbour are courting to vote in this Run-Off Election. I’m not quite as confident about a McDaniel win now as I was the day after the Primary. I’m afraid Cochran and Barbour will get a ton of Black DemocRATS to the polls to vote for Cochran in the GOP Run-off, and that will be enough to put Cochran in the “Won” column. We've got to stop this. I'm willing to leave my home in TX and go to MS to help out in this endeavor by being a Poll Watcher, or anything else I can do, to help defeat Cochran and deal a blow to Haley Barbour and the GOP Establishment. I've called McDaniel's campaign HQ numerous times to see if I could even make phone calls for Chris from my home. No one answers the phone and they are not taking messages. How the hell do you run a campaign like that?
5 posted on 06/09/2014 5:59:20 AM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016! Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic.)
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To: cotton1706

Any Freepers out there conversant in Mississippi election law as it pertains to run-offs?

The way people are carrying-on about how Cochran is inevitable, after losing initially, I’m surprised McDaniel hasn’t moved out of the state and assumed another identity.


6 posted on 06/09/2014 6:05:49 AM PDT by Arm_Bears (Shoot cops that shoot dogs.)
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To: cotton1706

“and it polled 832 likely GOP voters”

The GOP voters are not who we have to worry about. Cochran is appealing to Rat voters to boost his numbers.


7 posted on 06/09/2014 6:30:37 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Arm_Bears

The elections are open, however in runoffs, you must have voted in the primary to be eligible. That is what I read anyway.


8 posted on 06/09/2014 6:32:33 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: cotton1706

Read the comments at the site. One is particularly revealing. Barbour vs McDaniel is the real story. Also, only sampled 8 people in the 18 - 45 demographic.


9 posted on 06/09/2014 6:37:31 AM PDT by Lake Living
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To: cotton1706

From the Poll Survey. Click the following link to see the survey, questions, answers, etc.

http://www.chismstrategies.com/news/733-latest-survey-of-public-opinion-on-us-senate-ms-gop-primary-runoff

Other Notes:

1.These surveys include only landline phones.

2.These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households
with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked
each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked which candidate they had
supported and continued the survey for only those who had cast their ballots for Cochran or McDaniel.

3.The sample is 96% Caucasian, 2% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The survey
oversamples women and older voters with weighting to produce more reliable results.

PS: They surveyed 8 respondents in the 18-35 year old group or about 1% of the
total survey group. Take that number into account when digesting the data.


10 posted on 06/09/2014 6:47:33 AM PDT by deport
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To: Blood of Tyrants

The elections are open, however in runoffs, you must have voted in the primary to be eligible.

***************

Nope:

From the SOS regarding a runoff:

http://www.sos.ms.gov/news_press_release.aspx?id=584

If there is a Primary Runoff Election:

The 2014 Primary Runoff Election will be held on June 24, 2014 (Miss. Code Ann §23-15-305)
Polls are open from 7:00 am to 7:00 pm.

Citizens must have been registered for the June 3, 2014 Primary Election to be eligible
to vote in the June 24, 2014 Primary Runoff Election. If an eligible voter did not participate
in the June 3rd Primary Election, the voter may vote in either the Democratic or Republican
Primary Runoff. The State of Mississippi does not allow “crossover” voting. Meaning,
if a voter cast a ballot in the Democratic Primary, he/she must cast a ballot in the Democratic
Primary Runoff. If a voter cast a ballot in the Republican Primary, he/she must cast a ballot
in the Republican Primary Runoff. (Miss. Code Ann §23-15-575)Uniformed and Overseas ballots
have been transmitted in accordance with State and Federal law.


11 posted on 06/09/2014 6:50:44 AM PDT by deport
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To: deport

Then that is good news. People not motivated enough to get out and vote for their Rat are unlikely to be motivated enough to get out and vote for Cochran.


12 posted on 06/09/2014 7:03:27 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: cotton1706; Lil Flower; Malichi; WXRGina; duffee; onyx; DrewsMum; Tupelo; mstar; jdirt; ...

Mississippi ping sans a few


13 posted on 06/09/2014 7:57:15 AM PDT by WKB
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To: centurion316

Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters.
I find that very odd. I would love to see someone’s explanation for why that might be.

THEY ARE PROBABLY DEMOCRAT CROSSOVERS!


14 posted on 06/09/2014 8:12:15 AM PDT by vette6387
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To: Blood of Tyrants
The elections are open, however in runoffs, you must have voted in the primary to be eligible. That is what I read anyway.

I also saw where they said it's difficult to enforce. Code for the rats are taking over the ship.

15 posted on 06/09/2014 8:14:15 AM PDT by Kenny
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To: Kenny

I was corrected on that. The runoffs are not open. If you didn’t vote in the primary, you may vote in the Republican runoff even if you are a Rat. But if you voted Rat in the primary, you may not vote in the Republican runoff. That means that only those who didn’t vote in the primary and Republicans are allowed to vote in the runoff. I see this as good news as Rats who weren’t motivated enough to get out and vote for their Rat are unlikely to be motivated to vote for the RINO.


16 posted on 06/09/2014 8:18:56 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: cotton1706

It is traditionally bad news for incumbents when they poll below 50%. Undecided voters tend to break for the challenger, since everyone already knows about the long term incumbent.


17 posted on 06/09/2014 8:43:36 AM PDT by neocon1984
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To: Din Maker

I don’t believe they will get any black Dems to vote for Cochran. Those that vote, already voted. They can’t vote in the R runoff.

Many of Cochran’s supporters may not go vote again while McDaniel is the TEA Party darling and should get a higher percentage than last time. Not more votes.....a higher per cent of the votes.


18 posted on 06/09/2014 11:01:00 AM PDT by jch10 (The Democrat mascot shouldn't’t be the donkey; it should be the tick.)
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To: centurion316

Cochran still has an overwhelming 71 percent of support from 18 to 35 year-old voters.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

WTH? I was getting ready to question that myself. What did he promise them? Free Vouchers for Marijuana?


19 posted on 06/09/2014 8:51:35 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016! Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants; All

The elections are open, however in runoffs, you must have voted in the primary to be eligible.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

JUST DAMN! DAMN! DAMN! I have never seen so freakin’ much DISinformation being passed around in my entire life. What in the hell is so hard to understand about the process? Let me explain it to you Blood of Tyrants so maybe some of this crap will stop.

FIRST: Anyone who votes in the GOP Primary Run-Off Election must have been registered in time to vote in the June 3rd Primary. (People cannot run out and register now to vote in the Run-Off.) SECONDLY: Anyone who voted in the GOP Primary may vote in the Run-Off. THIRDLY: Anyone who was registered in time to vote in the June 3rd Primary but DID NOT VOTE IN EITHER (DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN) may vote in the Run-Off. FOURTH: Anyone who voted in the Democrat Primary on June 3rd, may NOT vote in the GOP Run-off on June 24.

Can we stop all this madness?


20 posted on 06/09/2014 9:02:36 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016! Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic.)
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To: Din Maker
Let me explain it to you

So why are these rules "difficult to enforce", which sounds like a gaping hole for Cochrane?

21 posted on 06/09/2014 9:25:51 PM PDT by Kennard
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To: Kennard

I was explaining what the rules are. How difficult it will be to enforce them, is another topic altogether. But, we have the same rules here in Texas. Your voter card and the data sheet is stamped telling what Primary you voted in. It’s not Rocket Science. By the way, the correct spelling of the crusty, old fart’s name is Cochran.


22 posted on 06/09/2014 11:17:00 PM PDT by Din Maker (Susana Martinez in 2016! Governor, Conservative, Female and Hispanic.)
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To: Din Maker

Jeez, get your panties out of a wad.


23 posted on 06/10/2014 5:37:17 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
I see this as good news as Rats who weren’t motivated enough to get out and vote for their Rat are unlikely to be motivated to vote for the RINO.

Maybe not. In the RAT primary, the winner had 75% of the vote, meaning that there was less reason to show up and vote. Hence, the number of RATS that might show up with Cochran doling out candy could be substantial.

24 posted on 06/11/2014 9:51:33 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (ObamaCare IS Medicaid: They'll pull a sheet over your head and send you the bill.)
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To: Carry_Okie

I have been schooled that if you voted Rat in the primary, you may not cross over and vote in the GOP runoff. However, if you didn’t vote at all in the primary, you may vote in the GOP runoff, regardless of your affiliation. It is unlikely that Rats who stayed home last week will be motivated enough to vote in the runoff.


25 posted on 06/11/2014 9:55:48 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Din Maker; Blood of Tyrants

I don’t get it. So if you voted in the GOP Primary, you cannot vote in the runoff unless you change to Democrat?


26 posted on 06/11/2014 9:56:05 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
It is unlikely that Rats who stayed home last week will be motivated enough to vote in the runoff.

With enough money thrown at them, I don't buy that. The RINOs don't need that many.

27 posted on 06/11/2014 9:59:39 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (ObamaCare IS Medicaid: They'll pull a sheet over your head and send you the bill.)
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To: Lazamataz

No, ONLY if you voted in the GOP primary do you get to vote in the GOP runoff. If you were registered before June 3, 2014 but did not vote in the primary, you can also vote in the runoff, regardless of your affiliation.


28 posted on 06/11/2014 11:00:35 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

I don’t get it.


29 posted on 06/11/2014 11:11:12 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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To: Lazamataz

I can only explain it to you. I can’t understand it for you. ;)


30 posted on 06/11/2014 11:12:39 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Haven't you lost enough freedoms? Support an end to the WOD now.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants
I can only explain it to you. I can’t understand it for you. ;)

What does that even MEAN.

31 posted on 06/11/2014 11:15:00 AM PDT by Lazamataz (Early 2009 to 7/21/2013 - RIP my little girl Cathy. You were the best cat ever. You will be missed.)
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