Posted on 08/02/2014 9:34:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Given the pattern of the cable news cycle, you might think that events in Ukraine had pretty much ceased to be of interest were it not for the downed airliner. To be fair, Israel is the hot news of the moment and, aside from the plane investigation, there haven’t been that many huge developments on the Russian border. But that would clearly change if the Russians launched a serious military invasion over the border. Rick Moran wonders if recent moves by Putin’s forces indicate that this is just what’s about to happen.
Let’s put it this way: Russia appears to have the capability to invade Ukraine any time it wishes. The forces are in place, the tanks are gassed up, the only thing apparently missing is the “Go” code from Vladimir Putin. And that could come this weekend, next weekemd – or never.
Rick is looking at the analysis of James Miller, who sees more than defensive measures on the part of the Russians.
Right now Russia is moving troops, armor, and advanced antiaircraft missiles toward the border with Ukraine. In the last 48 hours, dozens of videos have been uploaded to social-media sites that show Russian armor very close to the border, many of them confirmed to be within mere kilometers of Ukraine.
On Thursday, my team at The Interpreter definitively geolocated Russian armor only 2,000 meters (and closing) from the border and a Buk, the same type of missile that likely took down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, only a few hours from being within range of Ukraine’s air force. Columns of tanks, marked with the same painted numbers and flat, pale-green paint we’ve seen in Ukraine since (at least) June 20th, were spotted moving en masse toward a key border crossing. Some Ukrainian journalists are reporting that at least some of this armor has already crossed the border.
Is it just precautionary or is Putin really getting ready to make a move? Tough to say at this point, really, and our previous efforts at either reading Putin’s mind or looking into his soul haven’t worked out all that well. I suppose it’s possible, since Vlad doesn’t seem to be terribly concerned with anything that Barack Obama says or does, and sanctions thus far don’t seem to have spurred much action from him aside from hastening some business deals with China.
But events in the rest of the world are not static, and Putin is surely aware of that. First of all, Ukraine might not be as much of a pushover as they appeared just a few months ago. Time is reporting that their military ranks have swelled and their fighting force has become more formidable in an impressively short period of time. Also, those sanctions might become more of a pressing issue if they continue to expand, with Japan being the latest nation to look at a serious financial strike against Moscow.
Russia isn’t entirely isolated yet, and some of the traditional bad actors on the world stage will continue to support them in spirit, even if they can’t offer much in the way of substance. (Think Iran, Syria, North Korea and others.) But if the economic crunch is growing to the point where they really feel the pinch and a quick victory in Ukraine is no longer assured, I get the sense that Putin won’t risk a black eye on a gambit that might fail.
Thanks AdmSmith.
Are you falling for the Putinista stupidity too? The idea that Putin is concerned about Christians is just retarded. He is aiding Iran with their nuclear program, and he even has his own pet Islamic dictator in Chechnya who is establishing an Islamic state.
As for Rashputin, he is a psycopath who has told me on two occasions that he desires to round up every Muslim, regardless if they are Pro-American Kurds or Crimean Tatars, running a gas station or bombing in Iraq, and force them to live in concentration camps or, possibly, face forced conversion, regardless of any constitutional rights.
Pick your friends better
I agree that Russia should have invaded a long time ago. Two areas of Ukraine Donetsk & Lugansk decided they didn't want to be part of the EU after the government was overthrown and declared their independence. They practically begged Russia to take them in (which I think was a mistake). But I believe people should be free to choose their own destiny.
Flame away you Euro-weenies.
If that was true, you'd stop repeating the lie that a majority of people in the East and South want to be annexed, when every poll, conducted by both local AND international pollsters, including the official Presidential election, say otherwise. The number of separatists was always a microminority and usually representing the Communist "we still love Stalin" faction of Ukraine.
Yet, you insist on repeating this lie every chance you get, no matter how many times I correct you.
That's also stupid, since you expect us to believe that McCain "started" the whole thing, when Yanukovych abolished the constitution and was conducting a campaign of repression against his opponents, including abductions and torture, but that the Ukrainians were perfectly okay with this and that, if it wasn't for eeevil John McCain, they would have happily got on their knees and licked the hand that feeds them.
The dirty little secret is that you guys are not Pro-Freedom. You're Pro-Putin, and that is why you freaks have no problem vomiting up NWO conspiracy trash, or quoting from anti-semitic articles (like you), or vomiting up stuff straight out of Russian media, and telling lies over and over again despite multiple corrections. Because you don't care about anything. You're just here to spread lies.
Yeah that's right. Those lethargic Ukrainians were just sitting around loving themselves some corrupt and tyrannical Yanukovich. Then along came that impotent and incontinent fossil John McCain to rouse them out of their stupor.
Unbelievable, as anybody who has been following the Putin vs Ukraine situation for the past 14 years knows.
"We moved our base camp last night and we’re now positioned literally
within feet of the river. Have been sitting here watching the border
patrol patrolling in their riverboats all night and all morning..."~Jim Robinson
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Something I just learned today.
In his inaugural address, attended by dignitaries including U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. John McCain and Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, Poroshenko promised amnesty “for those who do not have blood on their hands” and called for dialogue with “peaceful citizens” in the east.
http://news.yahoo.com/poroshenko-sworn-ukraines-president-073208251.html
Hey at least John Kerry wasn’t invited.
A day or so later, Poroshenko announced the "ATO" and ruled out negotiations.
Seems to me who's calling the shots is obvious.
If the Ukraine needs help then send a Brigade each from Poland and Germany, the French Foreign Legion, British SAS, and aircraft and crews from all four. If the Brits and French don't have enough nukes between them to be a decent Ace in the Hole to keep things from getting out of hand then there's no stopping it anyway.
Interesting excerpt from an article at American Thinker entitled, "The Lessons of World War I":
Unfortunately, the consensus about the Versailles Treaty is one of the great myths of the war. History is not always written by the victors.
In the first place, it’s worth comparing the treaty to those the Germans imposed on their enemies.
In the Treaty of Brest Litovsk of 1918, the year before Versailles, Russia was stripped of a quarter of its territory in Europe. Poland, Ukraine, Bylerus, and the Baltic states were established as German satellites. Russia lost 90% of its coal mines, 50% of its industry, 30% of its population, and was obliged to pay about $1.5 billion in reparations, a figure bearing no relation to the losses Germany had suffered during the brief Russian invasion of East Prussia in 1914.
The Treaty of Bucharest the same year stripped Romania of significant territory and Germany acquired a 90-year lease on the Ploiesti oil fields.
A reconfiguration to match the 1918 treaty Germany imposed on Russia creating States that hadn't before existed (see the map I posted earlier in this thread) and redefining borders of others was done again when the Soviet Union broke up and how's that working out?
Nation's where the general population believes they were not defeated but had an unfair or unfairly implemented arrangements imposed on them anyway are more likely to go the route of pre-WWII Germany than post-WWII Germany and Japan. While going back to the pre-WWI borders doesn't make sense, neither does engraving in stone what clearly isn't working out just because that's what Germany imposed in 1918.
If Europe believes keeping Ukraine in it's current configuration at all costs instead of making the regions being fought over happy with Constitutional and other changes to the corrupt system that's been in place since Ukraine became independent, let them fight to keep it that way.
Otherwise the original players from WWI along with the countries created then need to all sit down with Ukraine and Russia and work out something that will last longer than however long it takes for someone to put a mob in the streets of Kiev to overthrow the government again. Something that seems to happen about ever six years there, instead of expecting the US to help them enforce what Germany imposed on that huge portion of Eastern Europe before Germany itself was defeated in WWI.
Europeans are playing their same old games and this time wanting the US to be the lead dog instead of waiting until they start a war and then expect us to come to their aid. There's no reason for the US to enforce whatever the EU comes up with as the only acceptable point in time to refer to for defining borders when the US has shown it doesn't respect any border it doesn't like (even our own when the powers that be don't like our border being a anything other than a theory).
Why 1918? Why not 1848 when Mexico ceded California and the Southwest to the US defining our current continental borders? Why not 1619 when the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth was at full flood or even 1700 and give the resurrected Caliphate a nice slice? Ethnic murdering scum deserve a State of their own called Kosovo but not anyone in Eastern Europe?
What has obviously been a source of constant friction and fighting ever since 1918 German solution was imposed will still be a constant source of fighting and friction forty years from now unless something acceptable to all sides within and bordering Ukraine is worked out through negotiations rather than through force of arms. Instead, though, people seem intent on poking the Bear with sharp sticks and throwing rocks at it until it does something irrational at which time they'll say, "see, I told you the Bear was crazy, a few dozen pokes with a sharp stick and it goes wild".
So far it looks like this Bear isn't as easily baited into fighting as the ones that used to be in roadside "See a Real Fight Between Two Bears" tourist traps in the mountains of NC and TN were back in the fifties. Especially since one of the bears in this particular roadside attraction is apparently too dim to figure out it's the Carnival Barker poking both of them and egging on the fight while his crew pick the audience's pockets.
In this case, the Carnival Barker has one goal in mind, keeping the suckers in the audience from focusing on the War Against Civilization Islame is already waging and slaughtering people by the thousands every week with, in some cases, direct military aid from none other than the Carny Barker himself.
Thanks for the post. It’s a really good, interesting read about how the world situation got to the current state it’s in.
Regards
That is a strange collection of troops, for instance a "brigade" of SAS, even if they have succeeded in increasing their numbers from the 500 that they had just a few years ago to a couple of thousand, what would the entire SAS be doing in Ukraine, and why would NATO limit it to those four members?
It would be suicide like I said. Unless he decides to stop with pretenses and great power diplomatic maneuvering and tries to conquer everything from Poland to Mongolia.
Which besides being economically unfeasible, financially disastrous and just downright stupid-Russia’s conventional capabilities aren’t that good. Sure there is a rearmament program and so forth but the Russian army has a lot of problems and the other branches as well.
Putin is in a losing battle. He can not compete the west toe to toe, and and otherwise he will just be a chinese satellite. The reverse of the Cold War. I only hope that is fall is swift but probably you might see a second russian civil war if it came to terms and just a big mess.
he accuses people of stalking regularly - you are target du juor
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3188654/posts?page=22#22
I’ve had my run ins with him to - a codger with to many retired hours on his hands / disagrees with every single person here
its hard NOT to cross this guys path - he posts about 90 replies daily
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