Poll: Scott Walker’s lead grows with registered Wisconsin voters… but trails among likely voters?

Hotair ^ | 08/27/2014 | Guy Benson

[SeekAndFind]

Fresh numbers from Marquette University Law School’s respected pollster confirms that Wisconsin’s gubernatorial race remains extremely tight. The head-to-head match up sits within the margin of error, but this split is unusual:

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker at 47.5%, Burke at 44.1% among registered voters. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014

Among likely voters, Burke has 48.6% and Walker 46.5%, new Marquette Law School Poll shows. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014

Walker has improved his standing with registered voters since MU Law’s May and July surveys, but has fallen among respondents who are likely to vote. Odd. Typically, Republicans fare better among “likelies” than with “registereds.” Not here:

Among the less likely voters, Walker is supported by 50%, Burke by 31%. #mulawpoll — MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) August 27, 2014

A 19-point Walker lead among “less likely voters”? As I say, unusual. In the LV category, Walker is suffering from a pronounced gender gap, trailing among women by 18 points. With RV’s, though, the split drops to a more manageable seven-point disparity. Walker dominates male voters within both groups. Overall, Dems enjoy a (+4) enthusiasm gap in this survey, which produces a (D+6) LV sample. As a point of reference, the high-turnout 2012 recall electorate was (R+1). Should these new stats hold up in November, Wisconsin will have bucked this year’s national trend of Republicans’ enthusiasm outpacing Democrats’. How likely is that? We’ll see, I guess. If you’re an incurable Eeyore — cough — there’s ample pessimism-fueling material within this poll’s internals.

[stremba]

Given that margin, there is no statistically significant difference between the LV poll and the RV one. The poll basically tells us what we already knew; this race is essentially a tossup. Either candidate could win based on this data.

[1010RD]

Exactly. This is a very tight race in a nearly evenly split state. I suspect that blacks will stay home again and Walker will win.

That’s why I like Walker for VP.

[jmaroneps37]

Sometimes it’s hard for the Left to keep its lies straight.

[cowboyusa]

Stopped reading mild gas because I don't need their defeatist gop-e crap.

[KC_Conspirator]

The same polling group found the same results, in the same election time frame, in 2012. Lets hope they are just as wrong this time too.