Posted on 06/09/2015 11:08:17 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
NH has an OPEN primary...
Yeah, sure.
Polls are used to manipulate opinion, not reflect it.
This poll is a fraud from GOPe trying to push Jeb Bush.
79% Not Bush
21% Bush
So, they want a fake Democrat.
Another trip around the hamster wheel for conservatives.
The Bush model is probably to win NH and then FL and either be the front runner, or one of two...then spend in the next few states to oblivion to destroy their top opponent. If I remember, Super Tuesday is shortly after FL, which is a media battle. Hopefully Walker can catch him in NH (or another good options rises - Cruz, etc). Obviously still very early for these polls to mean much, but his big lead there is telling of the strategy.
It’s walker or Cruz or I’m not voting.
I will never vote for another lizard.
http://creekside1.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-hitchhikers-guide-to-democracy.html
Ditto.
What about the Anybody but Jeb count?
Sampling Bias favoring Amnesty Jeb. Undersamples Independents and Rats. Oversamples Republicans.
Republican
This Poll: 57% 2012 Primary Electorate 49% +8
Independent
This Poll: 42% 2012 Primary Electorate 47% -5
Democrat
This Poll: 1% 2012 Primary Electorate 4% -3
If you adjust the biased poll sample for the actual electorate composition, it’s more likely 90% Anybody but Jeb.
I think we conservatives should learn from our wrongly held disbelief in polls. The 2012 national election should have taught us that the polls are correct within their margin of error. A lot of once prominent political commentators reputations took a big hit when they claimed the then polls were in error. I can accept the claim that it is early and voter opinion has not yet stabilized.
>> “He hasn’t been able to break out from this notion that he’s the third Bush,” says the adviser. “And he’s got to.”
How can he? He >>IS<< the turd Bush!!! Facts is facts.
Nobody gives a crap what New Hampshire thinks. It is a liberal state, way overdue to be toppled from it's self appointed position of arbiter of what the rest of the GOP needs.
All other Republican Candidates 79%
Mostly it's name recognition, nothing more.
This poll skewed the numbers for Jeb by oversampling Republicans by 8 points and undersampling Independents by 5 points.
All of the other polls in NH show a 3 or 4 way race and are using the correct sampling of the primary electorate.
If this poll didn’t oversample Republicans and undersample Independents, it wouldn’t be an outlier.
Bush is GOP suicide. I will personally vote for Hillary if Jeb is the nominee. I would rather see it crash than once more be put into the hands of milquetoast moderates.
Name recognition plus and 8 point oversampling of Republicans versus the primary electorate composition to favor Jeb.
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