Posted on 10/27/2015 7:01:48 AM PDT by Isara
Assuming Trump collapses and people see through the Ben Carson charade then I think Cruz is the candidate best positioned to pick up the pieces.
It is all tied up with potential voter fraud. In a flatly absolutely fair election, no fraud, no “lost ballots”, no double voting, no ineligibles, no intimidation at the polling place, Herself does not have a chance. We know the fraud is widespread and endemic in many of the “blue” states, but it pays big dividends in small shifts in the count in “swing” states.
The Donald has knocked all this potential for fraud into a cocked hat. In a mysterious way (or maybe not so mysterious), he reaches across ethnic lines and overcomes much voter apathy in the so-called “undecided” column. He may well bring in a lot of folks who have not previously voted, some not for years or ever. And potentially even some unenthusiastic Democrats who feel their party has long since deserted them.
Make no mistake, The Donald is no conservative, nor is he even particularly libertarian. But he is a darned good populist, and he has found a parade to get around in front of. That the parade may also include a lot of folks that are enthusiastic about Ted Cruz, but tepid or downright cold on everybody else, only means that a de facto alliance between The Donald and Ted Cruz already exists, and if not actively embraced, at least not shunned either.
Cruz better get busy slowing down Doc Carson or he’ll lose his appeal as a second banana to the eventual nominee.
If Cruz runs, Hilliary wins in 2016...
I have spoken to atleast 20 conservatives, they like Cruz but they are sure, he can’t win. Carson and Rubio are very last in their list. Trump is preferred candidate. And he can win election.
Let me tell you what "opportunistic" really is.
1996 - Texas State Republican Convention - Fort Worth, Texas.
The Platform Committee gets a knock at the door. It is a George W. Bush staff member announcing that Bush wants to speak to the committee.
They let him in to speak. He wants changes made to the platform. They listen and then ignore his requests.
Why? Because that is not how it is done. The Platform committee's role is measuring the will of the people and placing that will into the platform.
George W. Bush, as governor, thought he could just circumvent the will of the people and have his own opinions placed into the platform over the will of the people.
THAT my friends, is opportunistic.
Are we close enough to the election to start ranting about purists? I would have thought the recent budget sell out by McConnrll/Boener would have delayed running that play for at least a week.
“Time for you to look at Ted’s resume.”
You mean like when we were all supposed to be enamored with Scott Walker’s resume only to watch how resume points do not mean that you will win eaisly.
“Look what he has been doing while Trump is the neophyte to politics”
Every political battle he has been in ended in defeat. That’s just a fact unfortunately.
“We need a saber, not a club.”
The right trying to be too smart by half yet again. Dont destroy the opponents, try to dance around them thinking that they are just idiots and it will be easy.
THAT IS NOT TED CRUZ
The polls you cite show Cruz in 5th with Rubio and Bush being Establishment choices and Trump and Carson anti-establishment.
Between now and Iowa the establishment will consolidate to one choice: my bet now is on Rubio.
I think Carson can’t stand up to negative scrutiny. I actually agree with him on replacing Medicare for younger workers with lifelong rolling HSAs, but it’s just too damn easy to misconstrue to work politically, “He’s trying to take away your Medicare!!!!!!!!!!”. Add in concerns about pacifist views and wonky 2A positions, and the January negative ads write themselves.
So. I think it will come down to establishment vs. antiestablishment candidate after NH.
Cruz being the nominee comes down to two one on one battles:
1. Can he beat out Trump for role of antiestablishment candidate? Trump really controls his own destiny but Cruz is as well positioned as anybody to do so. If Trump doesn’t fall down, then he wasn’t beatable anyway. If he does, then I do think Cruz will be the last antiestablishment candidate standing.
2. Who wins a head to head between establishment and antiestablishment? IF it comes down to a head to head, then I think antiestablishment wins, especially if that’s El Jefe. The GOPe splinter strategy was designed to prevent that from happening. Trump has made mincemeat of that strategy. This BTW is why Cruz says that Trump had been immensely helpful to his campaign.
So. Cruz’ path to nomination is being paved by Trump destroying the Jeb splinter strategy. If Trump wasn’t there, the splinter strategy had a very good chance of working. If he doesn’t fall, then that’s it’s own political reality.
In the meantime, Cruz is very well positioned for how the race is evolving, he has a great ground game and the resources to adapt when needed.
The polls really don’t matter at this moment for Cruz as much as say, Bush (because he’s markedly flailing expectations) or Trump (live by the polls, die by them). The dynamics are in flux enough that all Cruz need be doing at this point is positioning himself to take maximum advantage, and that’s exactly what he’s doing.
If you think this kind of strategy is farfetched, it’s exactly how Cruz took out well funded establishment David Dewhurst for Senate. Cruz was never dominate in the polls until the exact time he needed to be and then, boom. And that’s exactly what he said his plan was all along in the Senate race.
Please click on the pictures at the top of the columns for more details on the ratings of the candidates.
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Hope he does well but I also like Jindal, Trump and Santorum. I think Trump/Cruz works for me.
The following is the schedule if it holds. I think I have it all in the correct order:
February Monday, February 1 Iowa caucus Tuesday,February 9 New Hampshire Saturday, February 20 Nevada caucus (Dem) South Carolina (GOP) Tuesday, February 23 Nevada caucus (GOP) Saturday, February 27 South Carolina (Dem) March Tuesday, March 1 (Super Tuesday) Alabama Alaska (GOP) Arkansas Colorado caucuses Georgia Massachusetts Minnesota caucuses North Carolina Oklahoma Tennessee Texas Vermont Virginia Saturday, March 5 Kansas caucus Kentucky (GOP caucus) Louisiana Nebraska (Dem caucus) Tuesday, March 8 Hawaii caucus (GOP) Mississippi Michigan Sunday, March 13 Puerto Rico (GOP) Tuesday, March 15 Ohio Florida Illinois Missouri
Here is my concern with this election is this is going to be the election, where at least on the Republican side, we don’t even spend much time looking at issues. This is going to be the election in which the sole prerequisite is not being a politician. That GFK or whatever it was poll. 70-75% or more of likely Republican voters saying “We want a non politician who has been in the private sector.”. So here we are with Trump and Carson leading the polls. People are saying Ben Carson is going to drop in the polls now. Even though he should, I don’t know that he will. Because issues are secondary it would seem. And if they truly are, then we will once again get the government we deserve, even if we win.
An analogy
A Man trekking across the desert finds a crate with bottled water..
But no Evian or Life Water.. so he shakes his fist at the crate and says.. well my favorites are not here I will just die of thirst.
New OAN/Gravis poll out today shows Cruz at 7.3% This is a non partisan large sample poll.
I like Ted Cruz but my question is what momentous event does Ted think is likely to happen that will catapult him from 7.3% to 34.7% which is where Trump sits. Its just not an optimistic forecast.
Really? You're saying this one year before an election? You're saying this knowing that Hillary is a corrupt Marxist wacko?
You sound like a GOPe quitter type.
OAN/Gravis is a marketing company. They take money from people to make polls. So who payed for this poll?
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