Posted on 03/13/2016 3:09:42 PM PDT by dangus
In actual elections, Ted Cruz has outperformed polls by an average of at least 12 points. While national polls had put him down to Trump by ten to 33 points, he's only behind 6 points in the popular vote. That's despite the not-Trump vote being split 3 to 4 ways and the caucuses being under-represented by popular vote tallies. Most of Trump's victories have been in the Southeast, and that region will be entirely finished voting after Tuesday.
Here's some good news:
ABC poll says that Cruz has cut Trump's lead from 16 to 9 points, but even better Cruz beats Trump 54 to 41.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1176a1The2016Primaries.pdf
Ohio looks like 66 more delegates that Trump won't be getting. He needs 1236 to avoid a floor fight, which he would certainly lose. The last three polls have Kasich winning or tied. But it might even go to Cruz. Over the last several polls, Cruz has gone from 22 points back (3/7, Quinnipiac), to 15 points back (3/8, Fox), to 14 points back (3/10, MSNBC) to only 6 points back (3/11, CBS/YouGov).
He's only 4 points back in the latest Illinois poll (CBS/YouGov), pulling his poll average (9 points, RCP) to below the 12 points that the polls usually underestimate him by.
He's also only 7 points down in Missouri, according to Ft. Hays St. University. Their poll of neighboring Kansas underestimated Cruz's strength by THIRTY-SEVEN points.
My predictions:
Ohio: Hard to call, because Kasich is to big of an "X" factor, but Trump is more likely to wind up in 3rd than in 1st.
Illinois: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Kasich, 4. Rubio (Trump wins 15 delegates by winning the Chicago suburbs.)
Missouri: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Kasich, 4. Rubio
Florida: 1. Trump, 2. Cruz, 3. Rubio, 4. Kasich.
North Carolina: 1. Cruz, 2. Trump, 3. Rubio, 4. Kasich
End result: Cruz catches up a little in the delegate count; it becomes extremely difficult for Trump to reach 1,236 delegates. Rubio drops out. Kasich declares victory, but becomes a non-factor.
This new concept of outperforming polls is nonsense. The polls were wrong, period. If they were wrong, the pollsters will review what went wrong like estimated turnout, estimate likely voter and adjust future polls accordingly. To assume that just because past polls were wrong future polls will automatically be wrong is not logical.
Maine isn’t east of the Mississippi. It is very, very far west of the Mississippi.
Basic idea is correct though: Trump is national. Strong all across the board. Cruz is strong is Southwest, Plains states and Rocky Mountain West. Also, Trump is stronger in primaries and Cruz in caucuses.
Cruz wins MO. That is all.
Only a coward would post and run.
You posted this nonsense.
Stick around and defend it.
Verify at Twitter? Puh-leeze...
I’ll have whatever it is you are smoking.
Senator Cruz was unable to get the Barbour boys to bring the minorities out to vote this time around. Maybe the minorities will show up at the next Mississippi election
I am listed as unaffiliated on the voter registry. So I didn’t vote for anyone. But I CAN vote for mosquito abatement.
You can bet that Cruz hurt himself tremendously with his support of radical leftist groups squashing first amendment rights. The first reflection of that will be in the election results on Tuesday.
Did Cruz cuck for BLM to get black crossover votes?
This is why Cruz and his supporters are seen as just pathetic trolls at this point.
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Maybe you missed the headline “FOR CRUZ SUPPORTERS”
I would say you are the one trolling.
New tag line.
5-8 point Trump win. Trump easily takes the cities and heavy industrial areas, especially along the Pennsylvania border (everything within the gravitational pull of Pittsburgh). Everything close to the W. Virgina and Kentucky border is pretty much a lock for Trump too based on demographics. Kaisich (however it is spelled) will do well in the capitol area.
Rubio will win heavy college districts via crossover votes (less so if Bernie is on the ballot the same day), mainly because they aren’t going to vote for the governor, nor will they vote for Cruz.
W. Ohio is somewhat similar to W. Michigan, So Cruz will do best along the Indiana border, unless it is a heavy industrial area.
1 Trump
2 Katachich (sp?) (I give up)
3 Cruz with Rubio a close 4th
I did get an evening call quite a number of years ago. It was some evironmentalist outfit conducting a survey. I had a wildly entertaining time.
Mostly Cruz seems to do well in caucuses. Are there enough of those left to get Calgary Ted to 1237?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN1IXDrXgV0&sns=tw Teddy’s American Taliban buddies.
OK, thanks. It will be an interesting night on Tuesday.
Your state’s rules :)
In mine you declare which party’s ballot you want. No official card-carrying* needed. I could have asked for a D ballot and voted for the Bern (easy target!) if I had wanted to (and been certain my R choice would prevail).
*The only needed ID is your DL— and there’s ways around that too :(
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