Posted on 03/14/2016 9:16:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's not impossible that Donald Trump finishes in third place in Ohio. The latest Ohio polls show a barn-burner between John Kasich and Trump, but they also show a distinctive Ted Cruz surge in the past 10 days.
Snapshot
Six pollsters have surveyed Ohio Republicans in March. RealClearPolitics averages the last four, and derives an average that shows Kasich up 35.3 percent, two points ahead of Trump. Ted Cruz's average over those four polls is 20 percent. Rubio is in single digits in all four polls and will finish fourth in Ohio.
One of four polls (PPP) shows Trump leading. Two show a Kasich lead, and the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 33 to 33 tie. Cruz is in the teens in most polls but CBS has him at 27 percent.
Trend
Kasich shows very little movement. In five of the six surveys this month, he's been between 32 percent and 35 percent.
The only significant movement suggested by these polls is a migration of voters from Trump to Cruz over the course of this month. In the first three polls of March, Trump averaged 39 percent. In the three more recent polls he averages below 32 percent.
In the first three polls, Cruz hovered at 15 or 16 percent. Since then, he's scored 19 percent, 19 percent, and now 27 percent. Even if that 27 percent is overstated, it's hard not to posit a Cruz climb. Splitting the six latest polls this way the earlier three and the later three shows a Trump drop of about 7 points and an equal Cruz surge.
It's a leap to say this data represents Cruz picking off Trump supporters, but it's not a huge leap. Going by the PPP poll, 9 percent of Ohio Republicans were Trump supporters with a positive view of Cruz, and another 5 percent were Trump supporters unsure of what they thought of Cruz. About 6.5 percent of voters were Trump supporters who held Cruz as a second choice, and 15 percent were Trump voters unsure of their second choice.
Reading the tea leaves
Despite his lead in more polls, and his lead in the RCP average, Kasich has to consider himself tied with Trump in the polls. It's close enough that turnout operation and similar factors matter.
One factor: Kasich has favorability ratings around 70 in recent polls. Trump is well below 50 percent. Nothing has happend in recent days to drag Kasich down. The lowest margin-of-error poll (806 likely voters by Fox News) showed Kasich winning by 5 points.
Here's a key detail: None of these polls were conducted after Trump shut down his own Chicago rally because of protesters. This incident will have both upward and downward effects on Trump's standing. The net effect is impossible to predict ahead of time.
Trump doesn’t exactly blow my dress up but he’s a lot better than either Hillary or Bernie.
Rush is supporting Trump 100% on the Riots
He is protecting Cruz from his words and cherry picking Polls
Even Rush is pulling for Trump in Ohio to get rid of Kacish to make it a two person race
But he thinks Kacish, Rubio will never drop out.
We need a two man race. Badly.
Now he’s talking about trump and attacking the left wing protestors. So you’re missing out if you like Trump.
Rush does a good job of talking about the positives of all candidates.
When or if he starts bashing Cruz, Rubio and Kasich for supporting the protesters please let me know. I will run back in to the show.
...the latest Jeb.
.
Rush doesn’t endorse so he’s keeping his audience by talking good about those most closely aligned to his views.
He looks at the good in all candidates, but dislikes the GOPe. However he won’t all out attack the GOPe because it will just help the rat party.
I don’t agree with everything he says but he does say things based on a reasonable view and argument. SOmetimes I learn and change my mind other times I disagree with his analysis.
Glenn Beck and Savage though are just unbearable to me. Beck is always promising big news and never delivers. Savage is just awful to listen to. Horrible voice and there’s not enough room on the radio for his ego and anyone else. Half his show is about how great he is.
Yeah, but it would be worth it to get Rubes and Kasich out of the race. Cruz kicks Trump’s butt one one one!
Yep. Kasich is hoping for a brokered convention. Before that happens though I’d hope Cruz and Trump would come together to prevent that and win before it gets to Kasich.
To: for-q-clinton
Unlike Cruz
Rush is supporting Trump 100% on the Riots
He is protecting Cruz from his words and cherry picking Polls
Even Rush is pulling for Trump in Ohio to get rid of Kacish to make it a two person race
The talking heads on TV today are saying Cruz has a good chance of winning MO, and IL tomorrow.
If you know rush you’ll know he doesn’t bash other republicans. (except for McCain and Lindsey—he hates those two).
Really waited for the last minute to declare himself a globalist, didn’t he?
LS made the FB comment but that said Ted lost 250K Twitter followers. That’s a fact. And Ted lost 6 points in NC from early voting to planned vote. He’s at 14% in Florida in the q poll and completely non competitive in Ohio in same poll. So to your point, it’s really easy to convince yourself that your guy isn’t tanking when you don’t want to believe. But evidence to the contrary is that he is. Ted shouldn’t have thrown in with the GOPe and BLM. Sucks when your guy turns out to be not what portrayed himself to be.
Just throw it out when 1/3 of his delegates still from Texas
It will eventually come down to Trump vs Cruz.
It will eventually come down to Trump vs Not Trump. Fixed it for you.
Is that what's got you down Bunky?
I think Kasich figures he can't lose in Ohio, assuming he figures the fix is in since he runs the party and the govt in Ohio. So he's running as the anti-Trump. Every popular position Trump has, he is taking the opposite side in the past week. NAFTA, amnesty, go to war with Russia, whatever he can think of. Then assuming he does win Ohio he says "this proves that real world solutions are what people want" and the GOPe can then rally around him as the REAL candidate.
He needs to lose, bottom line.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.