Posted on 03/14/2016 9:16:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's not impossible that Donald Trump finishes in third place in Ohio. The latest Ohio polls show a barn-burner between John Kasich and Trump, but they also show a distinctive Ted Cruz surge in the past 10 days.
Snapshot
Six pollsters have surveyed Ohio Republicans in March. RealClearPolitics averages the last four, and derives an average that shows Kasich up 35.3 percent, two points ahead of Trump. Ted Cruz's average over those four polls is 20 percent. Rubio is in single digits in all four polls and will finish fourth in Ohio.
One of four polls (PPP) shows Trump leading. Two show a Kasich lead, and the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 33 to 33 tie. Cruz is in the teens in most polls but CBS has him at 27 percent.
Trend
Kasich shows very little movement. In five of the six surveys this month, he's been between 32 percent and 35 percent.
The only significant movement suggested by these polls is a migration of voters from Trump to Cruz over the course of this month. In the first three polls of March, Trump averaged 39 percent. In the three more recent polls he averages below 32 percent.
In the first three polls, Cruz hovered at 15 or 16 percent. Since then, he's scored 19 percent, 19 percent, and now 27 percent. Even if that 27 percent is overstated, it's hard not to posit a Cruz climb. Splitting the six latest polls this way — the earlier three and the later three — shows a Trump drop of about 7 points and an equal Cruz surge.
It's a leap to say this data represents Cruz picking off Trump supporters, but it's not a huge leap. Going by the PPP poll, 9 percent of Ohio Republicans were Trump supporters with a positive view of Cruz, and another 5 percent were Trump supporters unsure of what they thought of Cruz. About 6.5 percent of voters were Trump supporters who held Cruz as a second choice, and 15 percent were Trump voters unsure of their second choice.
Reading the tea leaves
Despite his lead in more polls, and his lead in the RCP average, Kasich has to consider himself tied with Trump in the polls. It's close enough that turnout operation and similar factors matter.
One factor: Kasich has favorability ratings around 70 in recent polls. Trump is well below 50 percent. Nothing has happend in recent days to drag Kasich down. The lowest margin-of-error poll (806 likely voters by Fox News) showed Kasich winning by 5 points.
Here's a key detail: None of these polls were conducted after Trump shut down his own Chicago rally because of protesters. This incident will have both upward and downward effects on Trump's standing. The net effect is impossible to predict ahead of time.
Not to mention the backing away from Cruz by Law Enforcement Agency last night. Seems as Sen Ted has lost a good many supporters due to what?? Ignorance of our Constitution? Sucking up to GOP? Using his FREE SPEECH right but forbidding the same right of his constituents - the persons he has promised to fight for, stand up for? TOAS-TED
The way I know Cruz is feeling the pain is this morning he and his supporters are trying desperately to backtrack his Friday comments
My guy doesn't even claim to be "the real outsider" or the only "true conservative". My guy put everything out there at the start..
Cruz however along with his ad men Rush and Levin claim he was sent down from heaven to save us, that he is the Washington outsider who the establishment hates, that he is so conservative he only brushes the right half of his teeth.
So yeah, its a yuuuuuuge problem when this anti-establishment, uber conservative icon cozies up to the establishment, when he meets with the Bush's, supports Romney, gets endorsements and cash from folks like the NRO and RNC.
What I find funny is that if Trump hadn’t entered the race, nearly every one of his supporters in here would be diehard supporters of Cruz. Back in the real world, most Trump supporters will easily accept Cruz because most Trump supporters, like most voters generally, pay very little attention to politics for all but about a month every four years.
We tend to project in here. The vast majority of voters are just that, voters, not diehard supporters. They’ll just choose between the candidates on the ballot and go on with their lives.
So, no, most of Cruz’s supporters aren’t desperately trying to backtrack his Friday comments, nor are most Trump supporters the least bit concerned about what Cruz said. They couldn’t care less. In fact, most voters in both groups will vote for either candidate in the end. Now, that might not go for those in here (I, for example, will never cast a vote for Donald Trump) but it’s true of the vast majority of Trump/Cruz voters.
For those of you who are “done with Rush” for whatever reason, all he does is point stuff out, like I just did above, but without tipping his hand as to his personal choice because he realizes that a certain percentage of his audience only wants to listen to those they agree with, whether that be Kasich, Rubio, Cruz, Trump, Sanders, or Clinton.
If you are sidestepping the hypocrisy issue with a word salad, nice try.
If there wasn’t a double standard, we would have any.
Again, when Trump does it, it’s a-ok, then you apply a differing, malleable standard to Cruz and he becomes a terrible human being, why Satan himself.
I wish you folks would get together. In the same thread I see folks claim Rush is in the bag for Trump or Cruz. Is the cat alive or dead? While the outcome may depend on the observer, it is important to the cat.
NO polls following the Chicago riots and the Cruz lies: Prediction, Cruz supporters will move to Trump.
Let me help you, Rush is 100% in the bag for Cruz and establishment. Trying to still play the conservative for Rush and Cruz is like Hillary saying she’s pro-life.
He has based Trump. That is what made me so upset at him about three weeks ago. I was really taken aback. I have been listening to Rush since 1989 and that was the first time I had ever seen him so mean toward legitimate Republican.
Nice pivot if only it wasn’t transparent.
I’ll wait until the next Rush thread to prove my point.
Rush was great many years ago—but just like the Potomac politicians he has been there too long and is out of touch.
It is said to see—really.
Rush now stays in Florida and because of his health does not travel as much as he once did to station and sponsor events. I am afraid he has lost touch with how the majority of the country fell toward certain issues.
I believe his heart is in the right place but he just does not get the people in a way he once did.
Well that sure is funny because virtually every news program I watch this morning had a Cruz supporter on it trying to dance around what there man said on Friday night you do know that every Cruz supporter is not on Free Republic right
You might be right. The establishment positions have been crushed but they are telling Kasich what to say to try to resurrect these rejected positions.
He has turned into the POD people in the movie “invasion of the body snatchers.”
How can he and Cruz blame Trump for communist agitator disruptors from Soro/Sanders/Bill Ayres? It is shameful disregard for the truth!!We will remember.
Well that is sure sign he is sunk then. It is obviously in response to his comments about Chicago. Wow he is his own worst enemy.
“Rush is claiming Cruz is gaining in Florida and Ohio”
I actually hope he is gaining in Ohio to act as a spoiler for Kasich. But I think his numbers will be way down. Cruz is now spouting out and out lies every time he takes to a microphone. I think he sees the writing on the wall and is a vindictive soul in a self-destructive tailspin.
Trump isn’t a legitimate republican though. Even his die hard supporters admit that.
What is a legitimate Republican.
Is a legitimate Republican:
One who votes for free trade over fair trade?
One who support open borders and amnesty over securing the border?
One who supports the Iranian nuclear deal through support for the Corker amendment?
One who fefuses to stop Obama’s executive orders?
One who refuses to stop Obamacare?
One who writes articles in support of TPA with Paul Ryan?
One who has a Bush as the head of his Finance Team?
One who is supported by Mitt Ronney?
If you answer yes then you and I differ on what a Republican should be supporting.
One who has donated to Hillary, Schumer, Reid and Pelosi?
That is the biggest one right there. And your questions make no sense. Maybe if you changed it to what is a legitimate conservative...then you have more of a point. But a republican is GOPe for the most part.
I am not worried about ones contributions but one’s actions. Cruz, Rubio talk a good game as all politicians and lawyers do but cannot accomplish anything because they are not taught to be effective at anything other than talk.
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