Posted on 03/14/2016 9:16:33 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
It's not impossible that Donald Trump finishes in third place in Ohio. The latest Ohio polls show a barn-burner between John Kasich and Trump, but they also show a distinctive Ted Cruz surge in the past 10 days.
Snapshot
Six pollsters have surveyed Ohio Republicans in March. RealClearPolitics averages the last four, and derives an average that shows Kasich up 35.3 percent, two points ahead of Trump. Ted Cruz's average over those four polls is 20 percent. Rubio is in single digits in all four polls and will finish fourth in Ohio.
One of four polls (PPP) shows Trump leading. Two show a Kasich lead, and the CBS/YouGov poll shows a 33 to 33 tie. Cruz is in the teens in most polls but CBS has him at 27 percent.
Trend
Kasich shows very little movement. In five of the six surveys this month, he's been between 32 percent and 35 percent.
The only significant movement suggested by these polls is a migration of voters from Trump to Cruz over the course of this month. In the first three polls of March, Trump averaged 39 percent. In the three more recent polls he averages below 32 percent.
In the first three polls, Cruz hovered at 15 or 16 percent. Since then, he's scored 19 percent, 19 percent, and now 27 percent. Even if that 27 percent is overstated, it's hard not to posit a Cruz climb. Splitting the six latest polls this way — the earlier three and the later three — shows a Trump drop of about 7 points and an equal Cruz surge.
It's a leap to say this data represents Cruz picking off Trump supporters, but it's not a huge leap. Going by the PPP poll, 9 percent of Ohio Republicans were Trump supporters with a positive view of Cruz, and another 5 percent were Trump supporters unsure of what they thought of Cruz. About 6.5 percent of voters were Trump supporters who held Cruz as a second choice, and 15 percent were Trump voters unsure of their second choice.
Reading the tea leaves
Despite his lead in more polls, and his lead in the RCP average, Kasich has to consider himself tied with Trump in the polls. It's close enough that turnout operation and similar factors matter.
One factor: Kasich has favorability ratings around 70 in recent polls. Trump is well below 50 percent. Nothing has happend in recent days to drag Kasich down. The lowest margin-of-error poll (806 likely voters by Fox News) showed Kasich winning by 5 points.
Here's a key detail: None of these polls were conducted after Trump shut down his own Chicago rally because of protesters. This incident will have both upward and downward effects on Trump's standing. The net effect is impossible to predict ahead of time.
Then let’s look at Cruz’s actions.
He promised to fight against Obamacare. He has.
He promised to fight against amnesty. He single handedly called attention to the gang of 8 amnesty brought so much attention to it and worked with the House to kill the bill.
He had argued cases and won at the Supreme Court.
Now let’s look at Trump’s actions. He funded the gang of 8. He has flip-flopped on Obamacare. He has flip-flop-flipped on H1B and H2B visas.
I get it you’re pissed off and Trump is speaking to your pissed off side by repeating how angry we all are. But make no mistake he’s been more harmful to our cause over the past decade than helpful. Where as Cruz has been more helpful than harmful.
So who is he trying to vindicate? Would that be Rubio or Trump?
Reality Sean Hannity has nailed. The GOPe doesn’t want Trump or Cruz. That’s why Rubio and Kasich are staying in. It prevents both of them from winning 1237 delegates. In a 1-on-1 fight the GOPe thinks Cruz wins. If GOPe wanted Cruz they’d have Rubio drop out last week so Cruz could win Florida.
The only option for Cruz and Trump to thwart this is either win 1237 votes OR team up at the convention. So while Cruz and Trump supporters fight each other the GOPe wins. If you really want to stop the GOPe focus on Kasich and Rubio—they are the problem. I think they are setting Kasich up for a contested convention victory. So quit fighting on Cruz and start focusing on Kasich who truly is for amnesty.
Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=360&v=V6P8VL0INWk
Cruz fought against Obamacare but accomplished nothing,
He fought against the Gang of 8 and did raise awareness along with Jeff Sessions but it was the defeat of Eric cantor that stopped the Gang of 8 actions.
I am mad at Cruz now for accepting Bush into his campaign coordinating with the GOPe and working to stop an outside candidate. I could have supported Cruz before this. He lost his principles if they were there in the first place.
I’m pretty sure Cruz’s fight against the gang of 8 helped defeat Cantor ;-)
Don’t take this the wrong way but from all the facts that have recently come out about Cruz’ close relationship with Jeb and Neil Bush, and given his recent pro-GOPe narrative remarks regarding Chicago, please consider the very real possibility that Cruz has turned and is working for the GOPe now. If Trump wins big tomorrow Cruz will literally have no chance of winning enough delegates to win the nomination. I guarantee he will stay in and continue to attack Trump. Why would he do that knowing that it exponentially increases the chances of a brokered convention handing the nom to the GOPe?
I think it will soon be obvious to everybody what Cruz is all about.
Why would he do that? Because he wants to win or to have leverage for possible VP spot.
Same with Kasich and Rubio. Why would they stay in if they wanted to elect Cruz?
I am sure Cruz will get something out of the deal(probably not VP) especially if he is successful in blocking Trump but that doesn’t change the fact that Cruz will be a tool of GOPe. You know the GOPe, Democrats, media, left hate groups, foreign countries all want to stop Trump. That’s the goal and he will be despised so despised forever if he throws the nomination onto the floor for the Romneys, Bushes, and Clintons to rape this country.
And they want to stop Cruz. If Cruz was #1 they’d be going after him.
If Trump had never entered the primary, the establishment money and media would have chewed Cruz up long ago. So the point is moot. He would never have gotten this far. Trump is number #1 and Cruz is #2 and #2 is the best possible outcome for him after riding Trumps coattails. With each passing day Cruz is less and less a viable candidate and just a GOPe toadie.
If trump never entered the race Cruz would get all the antiGOPe vote.
“If trump never entered the race Cruz would get all the antiGOPe vote.”
Carson would have gotten a big chunk. Cruz simply would never have survived the shit storm. No mere mortal ever has.
So trump is a demi god?
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