Posted on 03/31/2016 7:38:12 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin, conducted on behalf of VoteVets Action Fund, finds Bernie Sanders as the favorite in the state’s Democratic primary. Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49-43, with 8% of voters still undecided. ...
The Republican race is close, with Ted Cruz at 38% to 37% for Donald Trump and 17% for John Kasich. There are indications within the numbers that Cruz could win a wider victory though. In a head to head match up with Trump he leads 49/41. That’s because Kasich voters prefer him over Trump by a 51/19 spread. Only 63% of Kasich voters say they’re definitely going to vote for him (Cruz and Trump are both over 80% on that metric), so if his supporters end up moving to one of the top two it could mean a wider Cruz victory.
GOP voters in Wisconsin have positive views of both Kasich (52/30) and Cruz (50/36). Trump is on negative ground, with only 45% of voters seeing him favorably to 48% who have an unfavorable opinion of him. In an unusual twist Cruz voters (83%) are more solidly committed to their candidate than Trump voters (81%) are. This is the first poll we’ve ever done where we didn’t Trump with the most locked in base of support. Cruz is being fueled by a 53/32 advantage among voters who identify themselves as ‘very conservative.’ Cruz also leads with women (39/32) by a margin wide enough to overcome the one Trump has with men (40/36).
Ron Johnson continues to be in deep trouble for reelection. Only 35% of voters approve of him to 42% who disapprove, and he trails Russ Feingold 46/39 in a head to head match up.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Trump is not done yet but he needs to regroup and pull it together.
Agreed. Wisconsin is must-win for Cruz and the GOP-e. If Trump can pull it off, the days are getting short for them.
New York will come very close to mathematically eliminating Cruz from the nomination on the first ballot, if Trump gets a good number of delegates out of the Cheese State and sweeps the Empire State.
I don’t believe the Marquette poll. I do believe the race is close and Trump had better be up with ads or he is likely to lose Wisconsin. He needs to do what he did in Florida in all these states. He also needs to be airing ads that emphasize his business success reintroducing people to who he is beyond his personality.
I believe that Wisconsin is close, with a slight lead for Cruz. Trump has had everything but the kitchen sink thrown at him this week, the sitting governor, RNC chairman and Speaker of the House all maneuvering against him, and he is still very viable in WI. Trump needs to buckle down this weekend, stay out of the verbal food fights and just campaign. TPP and Immigration are winners for him in WI and he just needs to repeat that over and over again.
None of these polls reflect the crossover votes Trump may very likely get. I think it is close but I think Trump has the best odds at this point. But, no matter who wins the states delegates will be split...that favors Trump who needs those delegates the least of the three.
What? I thought trump was getting stomped by Cruz. Lol. Thank goodness trump has 5 days to take care of business. To be honest, trump needs to go to south Wisconsin to take some of Cruz’s voters or motivate those who have never voted before or haven’t voted since 1984. It can be done trump.
Yes, ditto for me. I am concerned that trump is just not spending the money he needs to spend on these close states. He should have been running ads night and day for the last week and this week. I have not heard that. He may well end up losing WI and we will have to hear Ted Cruz crowing about how he’s the only candidate who can beat Donald Trump. Oye Ve!
Johnson needs to endorse trump. That MIGHT help him if trump is nominee. Trump could bring out new voters and those who haven’t voted since 1984.
It looks like Johnson may well lose his seat. This country really doesn’t need Russ Feingold back in the Senate.
Marquette has been very accurate in the past. PPP is a middle of the pack pollster in accuracy and tends to overweight Dems, as you might expect from their close ties to the Daily Kos.
The night before the Arizona primary a Cruz spokesman was interviewed on Fox and said although the polls said Trump was going to win that Cruz had really been coming on strong and Cruz ALWAYS wins the late-deciders and said the Cruz camp felt good that he might pull out a win in Arizona. He disappeared the next night when Trump won Arizona by 20%,carrying the Morman vote in the state and also carrying the late deciders. Of course Cruz won the Utah small caucus. He and Sanders win in caucus states but they both get destroyed in big primary states where more than a couple thousand people show up, sit in a room and can be persuaded to switch their votes.
Trump only needs 18 of the 42 delegates in Wisconsin to stay on target. Even if he gets less than that he will more than make up for it in NY.
If Trump gets mid 30s in WI it doesn’t matter if he actually wins the state. He’ll still be in target.
Cruz/GOPe are the desperate ones.
Lol so true. Cruz wins the hype battle every time just like a shill candidate does.
“But, no matter who wins the states delegates will be split”
I thought Wisconsin was a winner take all state.
The way Wisconsin apportions, Trump would need 6 of the 8 CDs to get to 18. That won’t happen unless he also wins the state.
It’s Winner Take All for the 18 statewide delegates with 24 delegates apportioned three (3) each from the eight (8) congressional districts. Winner Take All for those districts.
18 is a hard number to hit, unless you win the state. 6-9 is likely more realistic for whomever loses WI with Kasic maybe taking 3.
Regardless. Combine WI and NY and Trump needs 75 delegates out of 137 to stay on track. He’ll get that at least from NY alone and I still say Trump gets a minimum of 12-18 from WI.
He’s fine and Cruz has no chance he is just a GOPe last chance delegate blocker.
The April 5th election is for local and presidential candidates only there is a senate and congressional primary comming up in August. This poll reflects the western half of the state and two congressional districts. The Marquette poll covered the Milwaukee and surronunding area mostly bordered by lake Michigan. Strong Walker support areas and that poll was taken before Trump jumped on Walker.
Actually if Walker were still in this race both Johnson and Ryan would have been liabilities because of their go along get along positions .
Wisconsin is not winner take all.
With a close race, Cruz and Trump will come out with about the same number of delegates no matter who wins.
It won’t change anything. Cruz will not gain any ground.
Wisconsin is winner takes most.
18 to the statewide winner
24 apportioned to the Congressional Districts. The winner of each district gets 3 delegates per the 8 Wisconsin CDs.
The math strongly favors the statewide winner.
Getting to 18 delegates without winning Wisconsin is unrealistic. Cruz would have to pile up a huge margin in the other two CDs and Trump would have to squeak by in the other six.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.