Posted on 09/15/2016 11:28:47 AM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
...there is an unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote — basically, Democrats’ version of the apocalypse.
Here’s why: Several of Trump’s worst demographic groups happen to be concentrated in states, such as California, New York, Texas and Utah, that are either not competitive or that aren’t on Trump’s must-win list. Conversely, whites without a college degree — one of Trump’s strongest groups — represent a huge bloc in three blue states he would need to turn red to have the best chance of winning 270 electoral votes: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania....
Using a prototype of a demographic election calculator that FiveThirtyEight will be unveiling in the next few weeks, I decided to simulate a few election scenarios. Starting with 2012 results as a baseline and adjusting for demographic changes over the past four years, I tested what the map would look like if African-American turnout dipped, GOP support among college-educated whites and Latinos slightly declined, and noncollege whites rallied to Trump in large numbers....
The result? Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from blue to red. And the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn’t even factor in Trump’s Mormon problem.
Don’t get me wrong: This scenario is still very unlikely. But its potential to plunge an already fraught election into absolute chaos means it shouldn’t be discounted, either.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Yep, vote, vote, vote.
I am in Mexifornia we need to get out...
We’d never hear the end of it. “The minority President”
Sorry, Nate but your prediction failure during the primaries probably means Trump will get 370+ EVs.
There are no blue states, there are no red states, just states of mind.
Little Natie is going to lose big in November. He has no credibility.
Seems he is currently leading the popular vote. So why is this story bass ackwards.
The same way Dubya did.
Bill Clinton won the presidency twice and NEVER had a majority of the popular vote.
Whereas Trump will get at least 40% of the vote, likely more than half.
Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from blue to red.
Under this model, the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn’t even factor in Trump’s Mormon problem.
============================================
THE MODEL---Several of Trump’s worst demographic groups happen to be concentrated in states, such as California, New York, Texas and Utah, that are either not competitive or that aren’t on Trump’s must-win list.
Conversely, whites without a college degree — one of Trump’s strongest groups — represent a huge bloc in three blue states he would need to turn red to have the best chance of winning 270 electoral votes: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania....
Using a prototype of a demographic election calculator that analysts FiveThirtyEight will be unveiling in the next few weeks, I decided to simulate a few election scenarios. Starting with 2012 results as a baseline and adjusting for demographic changes over the past four years.
I tested what the map would look like if African-American turnout dipped, GOP support among college-educated whites and Latinos slightly declined, and noncollege whites rallied to Trump in large numbers. (SOURCE: FR post)
As it turned out the popular vote was essentially tied with Gore being ahead by a hair's breath. And the Electoral College was as close to tied as it could be, and W won by a hair's breath in Florida.
The lesson though was that a report before voting had finished in the Florida panhandle that projected Gore the winner of Florida, deflated voting for W both in the Florida Pan Handle and in the Western states later that evening.
That report turned out wrong....but according to a book I read about it afterward that did some analysis, if that false report had not happened W Bush would have won the popular vote and won Florida by enough that recounts would not come in to play....the whole controversy about hanging chads and the Supreme Court deciding elections could have been diverted.
Moral of the story: Do not give a damn about any reports before or after election night...get out and vote!
That would be Clinton....he never won a clear majority.
Trump will take Utah hands down. He doesn’t have a Mormon problem. Romney has a Trump problem.
There are a lot of things wrong with the Electoral College. But, nothing for us to be concerned with prior to the election.
The Democrats fret the loss of working-class whites and will soon fret the loss of working-class blacks and hispanics. We are seeing a pivotal change in American politics. One party will represent small and medium-sized business and those who work in the private sector. The other party will represent the elitists, government workers and welfare recipients. It’s us against the moochers and the looters. Donald Trump - a blue-collar billionaire - may be exactly the right person to lead our cause.
It could be more likely he wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote than the other way around.
I think it would be fun if it turns out that way.
Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states
Hey, Waterman, Romney took Utah and Texas. Your comment makes no sense.
Good summary. Would add thugs to moochers and looters.
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