Great Post!
Posted on 11/13/2016 11:44:29 AM PST by LS
Boy was I wrong. All along I had Trump at between 62 and 64 million votes. Our overly optimistic friend "Sundance" at www.conservativetreehouse.com was completely off the charts unrealistic, with a projection of 73 million.
Yes, Trump won the electoral college---as I predicted---big. As of today I think he is at 304. Another 720,000 votes in seven states would have given him an additional 43 electoral votes.
But unfortunately I was right in another prediction: the margin would be large, but each state would be decided by a small fraction of voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida all hinged on fewer than 180,000 votes. To appreciate how close that is, Obama won reelection in 2008 by under 480,000 votes, and I thought that was very close. I did correctly predict that the dominoes would all fall in the same direction, and, more or less, they did. We lost VA and NH in the east, and NV and CO by larger margins in the west, but the battleground tier of OH, WI, MI, PA, IA, NC, and FL all fell to Trump.
So it's time to put good feelings aside for just a moment---we'll have plenty more in the coming months---and appreciate just how close . . . how MIRACULOUS . . . this election was.
You begin with Hillary Clinton, the equivalent of a new coach being given a Super Bowl team with All Stars at every position and a free agent budget the size of Jupiter (less the emigrating Cher). Cankles had 90% name recognition, a sitting president more or less behind her, a docile party obedient to her whims, and a fawning media such that Saddam Hussein or Napoleon would have been fortunate to have.
And with all that she got six million fewer votes than Zero in his second election (where he got millions fewer than in 2008). It's darn near unfathomable, looking at it objectively, to figure out how she lost, given the numbers.
She'll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million, held the expected liberal vote treasures of New York, Illinois, and California, held Obama's western states without exception, eked out a narrow win in New Hampshire, and got Virginia as expected.
Yet she was crushed in the electoral college by a guy who spent HALF as much as she did. How?
*She didn't make any inroads at all with females---supposedly Cankles' calling card. White women went for Trump. There was no big "gender gap," except with men, who couldn't stand her.
*She lost millions of black and hispanic votes. Pew's research is unreliable---these guys did polls, remember? ---but they say Trump only got 8% of blacks. (I find that very unlikely, especially when every other poll was showing him at nearly double that.) But if blacks didn't vote for Trump, they sure didn't vote for Cankles. In FL and NC, when all is said and done she probably lost several hundred thousand African-American votes.
*"Da Yuts" were repelled by her. They stayed home.
*She lost the northern tier of rust belt states because she just didn't care. Cankles made NO visits to Wisconsin, only a couple of desperation trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania in the end. That message got out.
*Trump was indeed hurt by the tape, and vote counters in Ohio found that erstwhile R absentees dated right after the tape release suddenly had a very high percentage of Johnson votes. I'm guessing the tape cost Trump NH, possibly MN.
Still, the tape cannot account for the lack of turnout for Trump. NeverTrumpers? Some. For whatever reason, though, Trump did not turn out the large number of new voters that was expected by his supporters such as myself. (The limited data we have says that 90% of Republicans voted for him).
That leaves us with one explanation: Trump's election was a miracle. Some 60,000-70,000 voters in MI and PA saved the country. WI was a nice addition, but without one more state, WI's 10 electoral votes wouldn't have put Trump over. No, this was divine intervention.
And, in a way, it is perfectly in keeping with the Bible, for it was Gideon who prepared to go to war with 30,000 men . . . "the old fashioned way." God told him many were not committed, and to winnow them out. When only 3,000 remained, Gideon was told to cut the number further. Finally only 300 fully committed men remained. The message was that God wanted Gideon to know that it was His power, not numbers or the skill of the troops, that would bring victory.
So in the end, our "monster vote" never materialized. God cut the number down to under 180,000 in five states so that no one could doubt Who really won this one.
Great Post!
306 with Michigan. (It is my state, thought they were going to mess it up)
You know, I kept saying 306, and some places kept posting 304. So I thought, “Well, maybe I mis added”
This is a most perceptive look at what has happened, and what a lesson for life—the life of a nation and/or an individual! Thank you!
The tape clearly harmed Trumps momentum, he was on his way to a HUGE win, and that stopped it dead... but they released it too early to stop him completely.
They knew hew was breaking away so they had no choice but to release in early Oct.. had they not, he would have would have broken the damn wide open.
This was closer that it should have been, but its still a win.
So close, in fact, to within the margin of Fraud.
Subtract vote box stuffing, illegals and other non-citizen votes and suddenly - Shazam! the margin becomes much more appearance.
If nothing else, this should be a wake up call to cleanse the voting systems of fraudsters, end early balloting and severally limit absentee ballots.
Begin by a wholesale purge of the voters rolls to clean out the dead, the missing and ‘vote in multiple districts/States”.
Otherwise, the Nation is doomed to die by Fraud.....
Just win, baby.
Liberals are claiming it was “close”. It wasn’t.
It WAS/IS a miracle!! We are in need of another...to deal with the evil that is showing up.
I agree. Americans did a lot of praying. God blessed America again. He heard us.
All of this demographic analysis is interesting, but not very primal and instincts are the biggest driver when we make choices.
When there is no incumbent, every voter is voting for some kind of change, and voting for personal qualities. The candidate that offers the safest and most promising change will win.
Hillary is only able to offer a continuation of Obama’s policies, to do otherwise would be a Democrat betrayal. She was always handicapped with protecting Obama’s legacy.
That legacy has been constantly eroding for years, witness the Republican gains in Congress. Hillary never could articulate any policies that pushed back on Obama. Her campaign was always fatally flawed.
That is why Sanders did so well, he offered legitimate change.
There is another kind of change that voters reached for - a change back to a more orderly society. All the rioting in support of the Black Lives Matter nonsense was driven by Hillary, as obviously Trump directly refuted it.
Finally, when we hire someone, we look for personal qualities such as work ethic, energy, boldness and drive. Clearly, Trump outworked Hillary and that quality trumped all of his weaknesses.
I prayed regularly for God to save the Republic, that there were enough righteous people in it to make it worth while.
God answers prayer.
Yes, precisely. I was told numbers by Team Trump the week before the tape dropped and he was close in CT, RI, and ME, in addition to the states he won and/or came close in. That tape probably cost him a million or more votes.
..great work during this election, Professor—and yes, God gave this nation one last chance...
Only takes 10!
100 percent agree. The sequence of every single event was no coincidence.
I think the miracles began with the primaries, when candidates of the Bush/McCain/Romney type, unstoppable in previous primaries, this time just seemed to wash away.
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