Posted on 12/05/2016 2:46:05 AM PST by expat_panama
The U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November as the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the lowest since 2007, the Labor Department said Friday morning.
Economists had expected a gain of 170,000 jobs and an unchanged 4.9% jobless rate.
Employers in professional and business services added 63,000 jobs, while health care sector employment rose by 28,000 and construction 19,000. Manufacturing shed 4,000 jobs.
October payroll growth was revised down by 19,000 to 142,000, but that was largely offset by an upward revision to September's job gain of 17,000 to 208,000.
The unemployment rate fell in large part because the labor force participation rate fell...
...Treasury yields have been surging since Election Day on prospects for tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which could stimulate both faster growth and inflation.
A rate hike when the Fed meets on Dec. 14 is seen as a slam dunk. The real question for investors is whether the Fed, which has telegraphed two additional quarter-point rate hikes in 2017 and three in 2018 will have to step up the pace.
Even with the jobless rate sinking, it's hard to draw firm conclusions based on Friday's report. The real questions are whether the drop in participation and October's drop in hourly wages are statistical noise...
...unemployed have fallen by 538,000. Still, participation was up by more than 2.1 million from a year ago.
Meanwhile, there's little evidence to support a sudden drop-off in wage growth...
...a spike in labor demand from the Trump fiscal stimulus could be "a bidding war (for labor), driving up the rate of wage growth, with only a modest rise in participation."
That concern is why he's predicting an upsurge in inflation by the second half of 2018 that puts the brakes on a short-lived Trump boom.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
Do I need more coffee, or does this make absolutely no sense?
What's the real rate?
Yeah, that unemployment rate going down to 4.6 means we know that absolutely every single word and number from the BLS is a lie, and we know that becuae the BLS says the participation rate's up and we know that everything the BLS says is true.
Now that we've settled that, let's think about whether the fact that everyone's left the work force is going to force an increase in wages....
What's the real rate?
I kinda had y'all in mind when I posted #4
They are U-3s.
People who have given up looking for a job are 'non-persons' and therefore aren't unemployed people...
Labor markets may indeed be too tight in one sense. A full boat transfer payment package is worth about $69,000 in wages. Almost no one on a full boat package is worth that in labor markets. Hence, no one is looking to invest labor in a lower dollar yield than a no labor input receives. If we create an economic environment that demands labor, but below the transfer payment level, there will only be immigration to fulfill that demand. We need to return to the welfare reform benefit levels, work requirements and expected behaviors.
Well, buckaroos, the adventure continues! Stock index futures are saying we're in for new highs; maybe they saw how last week's pull back came w/ falling volume. Futures also see metals prices falling --natch, gold/ silver are down to new lows: $1,165.46/$16.61.
Our only econ announcement's gong to be ISM Services, a half hour after the market opens.
Lot's of new FR econ threads tho:
Shadowstats has the ‘real’ rate at 22.8%...that I can believe.
--and the big question now is w/ the econ coming back online will they come back to work or will wages have to soar?
No more coffee for you!
The current “unemployment rate” figures make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The number of “employable but not working” in this country is nearing 100 million, and still growing. The bean counters crow about “creating” 178,000 jobs, but meanwhile some 400,000 are either dropping out of the labor market altogether, or never entering with the first job.
I do not care how the bookkeeping is done, that is still a net loss of people employed out of the existing pool of potential workers. And it is a cumulative and GROWING number. If the unemployment rate were being honestly reported, we are at Depression levels of economic stagnation.
>>Do I need more coffee, or does this make absolutely no sense?<<
No, it explains the obozo no-recovery recovery. When the labor participation rate falls, the number of people lookong for work falls so unemployment goes DOWN.
If you have 10 people looking for work and 6 are employed you have 40% unemployment. But if you have 8 people looking for work (since 2 have left the labor participation pool) and 6 are employed you have 25% emmployment — thus the rate falls with no additional employment.
When these reports also include the fact that wages aren’t rising, then you know the unemployment figures are BS (in terms of “true” unemployment). When the labor market is tight employers have to fight for workers with higher pay, this hasn’t happened in this country in more than a decade (with the exception of a few fields).
Trump MUST, MUST, MUST debunk the mythical unemployment rate coming from the BLS. He must clean house in this rigged organization. Because this same crooked outfit will change the formula to show increasing unemployment increasing under Trump. Book it!!!! D.C., every agency and department, needs to be cleaned out. Most are Liberals and Democrats.
Since when is 170 something thousand jobs added a GOOD monthly rate? As far as I know it is about half ad much needed to service the simple replacement rate.
It sounds like the “experts” from the last eight years. It will take something stronger than coffee to make sense of this article.
“—and the big question now is w/ the econ coming back online will they come back to work or will wages have to soar?”
What about people like me that simply refuse to work, at least in the US while Obama is President?
I refuse to pay any taxes and contribute as little to the economy as I reasonably can. I am able to work but have lived off savings and tax exempt investments for years. Before that I made sure my charitable donations were high enough to not owe any tax.
No, if you magically recatergorize the unemployed as non-participating, the unemployment rate drops!
The Magic Negro’s Accounting Principles!
fractions are tough in the morning
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