Posted on 02/27/2017 10:00:46 PM PST by nickcarraway
The $64,000 question for Democrats seeking to fight back against Donald Trump and a Republican Congress between now and the 2020 elections is whether their recent problems in turning out their voters, especially in nonpresidential contests, can be changed by the energy of a burgeoning anti-Trump resistance.
The first real answer to that question may have occurred this weekend in a special state-senate election in the “First State,” Delaware. And though it would be unwise to assume it to set a reliable pattern, in this one case Democrats passed the test.
The contest was over a seat in a state-senate chamber that was otherwise tied 10–10. It was vacated by Democrat Bethany Hall-Long, who was elected Lieutenant Governor of Delaware last November. Republicans ran as their candidate John Merino, who lost the district by just two points in 2014. Given the exceptionally low turnout typically drawn by special elections, the GOP had every reason to expect a win and thus control of the Delaware Senate for the first time since 1972.
But instead Democrat Stephanie Hansen won the seat by a landslide 58–42 margin. Not coincidentally, over a third of registered voters in the district turned out, which is very good for a special election in midwinter (the weather on Election Day was unseasonably mild, but also included an unseasonably disruptive thunderstorm).
The Hansen campaign represented a good combination of national assistance and locally driven messaging. The Democrat raised over twice as much money as her GOP opponent, much of it from small contributors around the country, and also benefited from significant independent expenditures. Local volunteers also had a lot of out-of-state help. But local factors mattered too, as Paul Blumenthal noted:
While the race brought in huge numbers of outside volunteers, it was mostly fought over local issues like transit, the environment, education and the state budget. Erik Schramm, Hansen’s campaign manager, said the campaign had to juggle messaging to highlight local issues while harnessing the national mood to excite volunteers.
Democrats will try to replicate their Delaware success in upcoming special elections for congressional seats — especially on April 18 in Georgia’s 6th District, vacated by HHS Secretary Tom Price, where Democratic newcomer Jon Ossoff has already raised nearly $2 million to compete in a huge field dominated by warring Republicans — and in the regular off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia. Winning obviously matters most to Democrats, but the thing to watch in terms of future trends is turnout. If turnout is up significantly over past nonpresidential elections, Democratic odds of winning back the House and a goodly number of governorships and state legislative chambers in 2018 will go up accordingly, particularly if Donald Trump continues to tread water — or even sink further — in popularity.
Pig, say hello to lipstick.
I live in conservative, Republican southern DE.
Most of DE’s population lives in the northern part of the sate, and they are very liberal.
Heck, even the GOP there is liberal.
As hard as we try, we rarely get more than a 58/42, or 60/40 split of the vote.
It is very frustrating.
The Dems here are here in total state government control, and ruining this great state.
DE is gay.
good one!
GA 6th election to replace Tom Price will be the real test.
18 candidates right now. 3 explicitly pro-Trump Candidates to divide that block. 5 Democrats to divide that block.
Which two candidates will survive to the runoff?
Many FReepers in Marietta, East Cobb, Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton, Johns Creek, Brookhaven, Sandy Springs.
We need reports from the 6th.
No it was a Democrat seat that they held. Plus it is Delaware and should never have been an issue. Electoral “Come back?” Why because people love watching Soros’ paid thugs destroy our cities or they hate seeing the Dow at record levels or they all read the Wapo?
No. One legislative seat does not a comeback make.
What I found interesting is the Michigan recount revealed a serious anomaly in Detroit but was then shut down almost immediately so nothing ever came of it. If huge fraud could happen in Detroit then it could happen in any dim rathole.
Voter ID will be in place by then, doubt it
I have always held that GOP presidents should not create extra political office vacancies by pulling their own out of elected offices they already hold. Select former elected GOP officials yes, not sitting ones.
Why should they expect a Republican to win what was a Democrat seat in a Democrat state? Even if the Republican finished within two points the last time, it was against a different opponent.
The Democrats have held the state senate for the last 44 years and the northern part of the state [where the election took place]went heavily for Hillary so , given the big money the Dems spent on the race, it wasn’t too much of a surprise that they kept the seat.
Now they can go back to raising taxes to pay for their social giveaways to the gimmie people who vote for them.
>> “burgeoning anti-Trump resistance”
In their dreams.
The early “enthusiasm” for anti-Trump resistance, primarily fueled by Soros money and hype, is quickly dwindling.
Pure propaganda.
Where is it dwindling? That is what Limbaugh is preaching.
I am not seeing much anti-Trump enthusiasm.
There were Soros funded protests and riots on Inauguration Day and sporadically since then. But I see no major movement against Trump.
Whenever I have seen news reports, further investigation reveals astroturfing. I don’t claim to have examined every single incident, but I am just not seeing it.
JMO: I think the puppeteers on the left are beginning to panic over having their corruption revealed, particularly pizzaGate type crimes. I think the desperation is palpable and this is what fuels most anti-Trump news. Look at what they are most agitated about. It’s the things that threaten this area the most. E.g., Jeff Sessions as AG. They care far less about things that are not related to draining the swamp.
Interesting to note that Delegate appears to be moving right in at least the senate.
Deleware Senate has 4 year terms. Bethany Hall-Long was not up in 2016.
Before the 2010 election the breakdown was 25 Dems 6 reps.
2010 election moved it to 24 d, 7 r;
2012 election 13 d, 8 r;
2014 election 12 d, 9 r;
2016 election 11 d,10 r.
Bethany Hall-Long resigned upon becoming Lt. Gov creating the 10 - 10 tie.
Another way to look at this is that the liberal Dems were able to hold on to a state seat in a liberal state.
Delaware. Oh, my sides.
A 49 state landslide is not possible for anyone, Democrat or Republican. There are some states that will never go blue (WY, ID, KS, ND, SD, etc) and some states will never go red (VT, RI, MA, IL, NY, NJ, CA, OR, WA, etc.).
This is not 1984 when even many Democrats at least had some love of God and country in them.
Even if Trump somehow overcomes all these protests, the disapproval of a majority of people and the obstructionist congress and makes America great again, Democrats, and blacks and hispanics will still hate him and those blue states will still go overwhelmingly against him.
Never is a long time. I would like to see an election where that excluded the dead, the illegal, and the felonious. I’m sure a lot of your “never red” states would be much closer.
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