Posted on 04/09/2017 7:38:52 PM PDT by LS
By way of disclaimer, I have known Steve Bannon for years and we regularly communicate in rather short bursts. So my info on the "inside Team Trump" is pretty one-sided. I don't know Jared Kushner, know OF McMaster and recommended him to Team Trump (as did Victor Davis Hanson). So I know what I know, but it's a pretty limited range of insight.
1. The Syria strikes. I knew going in this would be a firestorm for Trump among his voters, especially the Ron Paul/non-interventionist backers (many of whom you see on Twitter).
I agree with many of you that the evidence was not clear that it was Assad---indeed, it could well have been ISIS. I also agree this does not help in our fight against ISIS. I further agree that regime change is dangerous on a number of levels.
That said, the strike was a multifaceted message, and unfortunately one that absolutely had to be sent, somewhere, somehow.
Recall as many of you have posted, in the past two years, the Russkies have been getting extremely provocative, doing flybys of American ships, sailing into our waters, and so on. Forget who is "responsible" for Ukraine, the fact is Ukraine unloaded its nukes cuz we promised them we would protect them via NATO. Now that promise is vanishing. Our word certainly is not good from the Ukrainian perspective.
I start Syria with Russia because at some point, somewhere, Putin had to get a message that while we want peace and want to work with him, he cannot possibly be allowed to threaten (as he already has) American ships at sea and sail in our waters. This is flat out aggression.
It can be stopped, and nipped in the bud, but how? Consider Syria a "brush back pitch" to the Russian batter. (In baseball, when the hitter takes advantage of the plate and gets too far into the pitcher's zone, the pitcher throws one high and tight to brush him back and say, "No, you have to play by the rules.")
I do believe Putin not only got this message, but was expecting it. He wanted to see if Trump was Obama The bad news is that it had to go on this long, but like any aggressor, the longer you wait, the bloodier it becomes to stop him. I think Putin got the message. Yes, he's making a lot of threats. But he now knows Trump will act when provoked and act DECISIVELY. Whether you agree with the strike or not, you can't accuse Trump of "indecision."
Further, I think the brush-back pitch worked on Iran and the NORKs. Coming as it did when Xi was at dinner (indeed, I hear he was the first one to receive the news of the attack!), it was the equivalent of Trump pulling out a Colt .45 and laying it on the table and saying, "ok, Xi, let's chat." The fact that Xi apparently gave his blessing to American responses to the NORKs--in their own back yard---suggests the meeting was a 100% success. The brush back pitch was felt in China, too.
Many here do not agree with Trump's action. Many think he was being "played." I have heard (haven't verified it) that the "vote" to fire the missiles was unanimous among the NatSec team, including Bannon. He of course would never confirm or deny, nor would I ask. But what we have from "fake" news is one story that it was Kush v Bannon, another that it was Kush/Bannon v Mattis, and a third that it was everyone agreeing.
For the reasons I've outlined above NOT particularly relating to Syria, I believe the latter. Further, this was an opportunity to throw the brush-back pitch without civilian casualties and without a bunch of dead bodies being hauled out of a mosque. In other words, if Team Trump was looking for the "perfect" place to send a message, gas or no gas, this was it.
2. "Chaos/Turmoil inside Team Trump" Lately the Twitter people have been going nuts against Kushner thinking he is engaging in a war on Bannon. First, if you look at the picture of the "bunker" with everyone during the strike, the two people closest to Trump are Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, right behind him. Kush is one person removed. Small things. Second, Bannon himself told me three nights ago, "I ain't goin' anywhere." I'm pretty sure that means DT said so, too. We keep missing this and missing this, but REGULARLY Team Trump throws out a piece of media "cheese" into the maze and the media rats chase it while Team Trump governs. I don't know if the Kush/Bannon "clash" is real or just cheese, but it would not surprise me if the two guys don't go get a beer every night and laugh.
Trump's management style is much like Lincoln's: get a bunch of top, smart people who have different ideas, let them fight, come to a decision that may favor one, the other, or even neither. Don't forget businessmen do not hesitate to drop non-producers. Trump fired Lewandowski, Manafort, and his OWN BROTHER (as did Thomas Watson, Jr. at IBM!) If anyone thinks he won't dump Kush for good reason, think again. Ditto Bannon.
3. McMaster. I vouched for McMaster as did Victor Davis Hanson. McMaster is one of the few people in the Pentagon with actual hands-on success at forming alliances with Muslims against other Muslims. He was a rebel throughout the Iraq war, which kept him from being promoted. He's exactly the type of outside-the-box thinker you want. I'm NOT concerned about his early comments on "radicals" being a minority. Folks, you will not find any commanders in the field, anywhere, saying all Muslims are terrorists. Won't happen, cuz they need locals as interpreters and most of the time as allies. Maybe personally they have different thoughts, but they cannot express those in a combat zone. I think McM's comments were typical of that battlefield thinking.
Bannon's removal from the NSC planning group was predicted in Trump's own plans early on. Bannon was there to de-politicize it, and he has, and he still has top clearance, as you've all seen. I could be wrong, but of all the things to worry about, McM ain't one of them.
Finally, we are in a VERY dangerous position due to Obama. If anyone thinks we could just retreat to our borders, it's way too late for that. The NORK nut could wipe out the entire west coast with a single EMP bomb over the north Pacific. Many here would say "yay," but of course that's crazy. The entire US would be set back massively, Japan would be wiped out and we'd have to retaliate big time. (I do think it's time we reconsider assassination as a policy). Zero let the Russkies run wild. We can nudge them back into their stall, but to act like they aren't out would be a mistake. And we still have to deal with Iran.
None of this is easy, and no one will agree with any one policy. Trump was handed an absolute bag of excrement in foreign policy. I think he is trying to avoid not just one, but three wars, and we all better hope the "brush back pitch" was heeded.
Thanks for the post. Too many fake narratives spinning around. Pretty much what I thought was happening. I’m still a little concerned about McMaster and his relationship to Rice. It may be, he just played his politics right.
I think he is trying to avoid not just one, but three wars, and we all better hope the “brush back pitch” was heeded.
That makes a lot of sense.
Good for you.
for my ping requests
Trump went from 140 word Tweets to 60 cruse missiles
Just Trump being Trump
At a presser stage...he is in control...responses are instantaneous...devastating...unexpected and involve no focus groups.
Same on the world stage.
Enjoy the hew Sheriff in town.
I am getting really tired of all you weak sisters and sunshine patriots. We finally have an alpha male in the White House. All you pearl clutchers need to go to your safe space and watch real men at work.
Great post, LS! And thank YOU for all that YOU do!
(insert gif of Charles Foster Kane clapping furiously)
THAT is basically what this action was to accomplish...
NK HAS nukes and has threatened the USA...We basically got China’s blessing for any action we may need to take on NK because of Trump’s action with Syria....
hew = new....(fat fingers)
Thanks. I’ve been sensing DefCon plunging all weekend. Well, all this needs to be done, let’s get going.
I neglected to add in terrorist organizations who now know Trump isn’t a guy to be trifled with. I think they already had a pretty good handle on that.
Just so long as Trump doesn’t put boots on the ground in Syria I can live with the bombing decision.
Good insights, clarified much. Thank you.
The observation that the nkoreans could “get lucky” with their long range nuke delivery— close enough to do serious EMP damage to a major part of our cyber grid... servers, networks etc., not to mention incapacitating high population centers dependent on.... automobiles that would no longer work, rail systems that would quit and finally no aviation possible.
FReepers who don’t get this check the data on EMP damage radius from different size devices... which would not have to hit a target-— air burst 100 miles off shore for example. CA and West Coast people with exception of inland, rural, mountain people— not ready for this.
Decapitation would destroy the NKorean system psychologically, but great care would have to be taken in a closed society to “transfer” control of the weapons/systems. We had better have outstanding humint/operationals inside or near inside to do this. And... we probably don’t. Time for pulling the stops out with Japan as an ally, and the chi-coms to get kim to shut. the F. down-— and mean it with serious consequences (like, no coal shipments, no gasoline, no oil, etc.— dead country in a week).
Yes, that will be a big one.
In fact, if I was advising Trump, I would have offset the strike with withdrawal of troops from Germany as a symbolic “downsizing” elsewhere.
Do you have a link to that bunker pic? Is it the picture where Bannon and Miller are sitting behind Trump?
You obviously know how EMP’s were figured out.
They are covered. The Norks do not have a chance of getting their missiles off 100 mi.
I agree.
LS:
First rate post. First rate analysis. As usual. And as expected. Keep it up. Your input is greatly appreciated here.
The more facts that are incorporated, the better the theory holds water.
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