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Scientific Paper: It's Likely We Are Alone In The Observable Universe
https://arxiv.org ^
| June 26, 2018
| Hank Berrien
Posted on 06/26/2018 6:13:36 PM PDT by Para-Ord.45
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The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.
https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404
To: Para-Ord.45
No...
Tell me it isn’t so.
2
posted on
06/26/2018 6:16:54 PM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
To: Para-Ord.45
“Observable universe” - what’s that, only what we know about?
There is vastly more we DO NOT know, than what we do. The arrogance that somehow Earth is absolutely unique is unfounded by any empirical knowledge we now have.
Sheer distance alone would make the probability of actually knowing if there were any other life forms out there purely conjectural, but that does not mean that some other advanced society may have already solved the twin paradoxes of instantaneous travel between points of the Universe, and the time displacement of achieving that instantaneous transport.
3
posted on
06/26/2018 6:23:18 PM PDT
by
alloysteel
("No" is a complete sentence. On so many levels.)
To: DoughtyOne
Hm the lifeless universe we observe. Uh unless you include observing earth. Duh. Also, outside of our solar system I’m unaware of “observations” sufficient to determine other planets are lifeless. In fact I’m certain we have no such observations.
4
posted on
06/26/2018 6:23:18 PM PDT
by
Williams
(Stop tolerating the intolerant.)
To: Para-Ord.45
So, maybe the Lord God created the whole Universe just for us?
5
posted on
06/26/2018 6:23:28 PM PDT
by
MuttTheHoople
(Yes, Liberals, I question your patriotism3)
To: Para-Ord.45
But while the equation is often invoked as a way of reasoning about uncertainties and ignorance, the actual practice is often considered to be somewhat suspect. Many papers state that some of their parameter choices are just their best guesses ... " And yours isn't ???
6
posted on
06/26/2018 6:23:57 PM PDT
by
Mr_Moonlight
(Ich bin ein Deplorable)
To: Para-Ord.45
What do they mean by observable universe?
7
posted on
06/26/2018 6:26:06 PM PDT
by
Brilliant
To: Para-Ord.45
Well, I for one am relieved. I no longer have to fear ending up on the dinner table of a space alien. This also means that all those habitable planets we find will be ours without a fight, and without a bunch of alien diseases.
8
posted on
06/26/2018 6:29:53 PM PDT
by
VanShuyten
("...that all the donkeys were dead. I know nothing as to the fate of the less valuable animals.")
To: Brilliant
“What do they mean by observable universe?
I presume he means anything that can be observed by our best telescopes. How many light years that is, I have no idea.
9
posted on
06/26/2018 6:30:15 PM PDT
by
be-baw
(still seeking...)
To: Para-Ord.45
10
posted on
06/26/2018 6:31:51 PM PDT
by
iowamark
To: Para-Ord.45
Probability of life in the universe, global-warming forecasting, long-term political predictions ...
with all these complicated equations with multiple unknown variables, you can get out whatever result you want depending on how you define the inputs.
You’re basically just guessing.
To: Para-Ord.45
This is based on the same trust in mathematical simulations as global warming climate models. As much as I love probability and statistics, which have been central to a large portion of my life, I’m honest enough to admit what math cannot do. Math cannot tell us what the numbers in the Drake Equation are any more than it can tell us the coefficients in the climate equations.
Science is supposed to be based on truth, and the truth is that we don’t have any idea what our uncertainty is in any guesses at the Drake coefficients, nor do we have useful estimates for those guesses. We simply don’t know.
12
posted on
06/26/2018 6:33:47 PM PDT
by
Pollster1
("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
To: be-baw
You can see quasars 13 billion miles away. I doubt they mean that. They are probably talking about the galaxy or even less.
To: Williams
In the universe I am sure there is life other than our own.
Naturally occurring, I’m not convinced at all.
14
posted on
06/26/2018 6:35:44 PM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs..)
To: Pollster1
Math cannot tell us what the numbers in the Drake Equation are any more than it can tell us the coefficients in the climate equations.
...
Drake wanted his equation to spark conversation on the subject and I think it worked.
15
posted on
06/26/2018 6:38:34 PM PDT
by
Moonman62
(Give a man a fish and he'll be a Democrat. Teach a man to fish and he'll be a responsible citizen.)
To: Brilliant
Quasars are VERY BRIGHT or so I’ve been told.
16
posted on
06/26/2018 6:38:49 PM PDT
by
TaMoDee
(Go Pack Go! The Pack will be back in 2018!)
To: Para-Ord.45
Life is the product of a will, not probability.
To: DoughtyOne
There is no evidence for life beyond our planet, so why would you be sure?
To: TaMoDee
Yes. I read that they are so bright that a lot of physicists have difficulty believing they are really producing the radiation that they appear to produce.
To: MuttTheHoople
That was My first impression,
and the Lord has gone to
Prepare a Place for Us.
20
posted on
06/26/2018 6:42:26 PM PDT
by
Big Red Badger
(UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
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