Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan meet in Sochi, Russia November 22, 2017. (photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL METZEL/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS) The Three Amigos
Posted on 02/07/2019 9:15:19 AM PST by caww
Correction: Russia and Iran are both defending Syria in exchange for a share of Syrian oil booty. They are squabbling over whos getting what.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, Russia's Vladimir Putin and Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan meet in Sochi, Russia November 22, 2017. (photo credit: SPUTNIK/MIKHAIL METZEL/KREMLIN VIA REUTERS) The Three Amigos
This is the first time the Russians attacked Iranian targets in Syria.
It won't be the last. Too bad, I'll hate to have to retire the graphic.
Nineteen Eighty-FourOn a scarlet-draped platform an orator of the Inner Party, a small lean man with disproportionately long arms and a large bald skull over which a few lank locks straggled, was haranguing the crowd. A little Rumpelstiltskin figure, contorted with hatred, he gripped the neck of the microphone with one hand while the other, enormous at the end of a bony arm, clawed the air menacingly above his head. His voice, made metallic by the amplifiers, boomed forth an endless catalogue of atrocities, massacres, deportations, lootings, rapings, torture of prisoners, bombing of civilians, lying propaganda, unjust aggressions, broken treaties. It was almost impossible to listen to him without being first convinced and then maddened. At every few moments the fury of the crowd boiled over and the voice of the speaker was drowned by a wild beast-like roaring that rose uncontrollably from thousands of throats. The most savage yells of all came from the schoolchildren. The speech had been proceeding for perhaps twenty minutes when a messenger hurried on to the platform and a scrap of paper was slipped into the speaker's hand. He unrolled and read it without pausing in his speech. Nothing altered in his voice or manner, or in the content of what he was saying, but suddenly the names were different. Without words said, a wave of understanding rippled through the crowd. Oceania was at war with Eastasia! The next moment there was a tremendous commotion. The banners and posters with which the square was decorated were all wrong! Quite half of them had the wrong faces on them. It was sabotage ! The agents of Goldstein had been at work ! There was a riotous interlude while posters were ripped from the walls, banners torn to shreds and trampled underfoot. The Spies performed prodigies of activity in clambering over the rooftops and cutting the streamers that fluttered from the chimneys. But within two or three minutes it was all over. The orator, still gripping the neck of the microphone, his shoulders hunched forward, his free hand clawing at the air, had gone straight on with his speech. One minute more, and the feral roars of rage were again bursting from the crowd. The Hate continued exactly as before, except that the target had been changed.
by George Orwell
(from chapter 17)
The thing that impressed Winston in looking back was that the speaker had switched from one line to the other actually in midsentence, not only without a pause, but without even breaking the syntax... Oceania was at war with Eastasia : Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia. A large part of the political literature of five years was now completely obsolete.
The ties between Russia and Iran are not really an “alliance” and can never be a strategic partnership. They’re not friends nor are they enemies.... Both sides are used to and adept at mixing cooperation and contention on different issues ‘at the same time’ because centuries of conflicts have taught them how to survive their differences.
Additionally Iran appears envious of Russian influence over Assad. Russia is displacing Iran in Damascus, and
Tehran does not like this. Russia wants a secular government in Syria, and Iran does not agree with this idea. Russia wants any future leadership in Damascus to respect Russian access to its two bases in Syria and Russian wider interests in Middle East politics...... Iran also does not like it that Russia does nothing to prevent Israeli attacks on Iranian interests in Syria, and that Russia is not interested in helping Hizballah on the Golan Heights.
Very interesting. A lot of tension over there between the US, Israel, Syria, Russia and Iran; plus the Kurdish Independence Forces, and the Turks massed on the border.
Syria’s Bashar Assad has a mutual defense pact with Iran but he also invited 50,000 Russian personnel to help defeat the opposition forces. I had a suspicion that Russia wants a ‘clean’ deal with Syria and Iran separately, but doesn’t want Iran inside Syria - it makes dealing with Syria more difficult.
I also wonder how much of this is the result of pressure from Israel and the US alliance, or whether Iran is double dealing and threatening Russian forces in some ways. Certainly because Israel has been attacking Iranian positions in Syria, that is an indirect threat to Russia who already lost at least one plane in a case of mistaken identity.
I also figure if Russia allows the precedent of Iranian forces, then Turkey is going to be emboldened and the last thing Russia needs are all these countries pushing inward. It would be a good thing if Iran could be shut down - they are making a mess of the whole region; of course they are supporting Hezbullah in Lebanon but they are also the people who trained and deployed the IEDs in Iraq that have killed and maimed thousands of US servicepeople. Obama was such a schmuck for making a deal with them - and made it worse by giving them all the bribe cash and then making the deal a secret, making side deals that nullify aspects of the secret deal...
And over it all, the future of Syria and Assad to consider - what kind of price Assad pays to stay in power? Having his country a laundry-mat for Iranian smuggling; split in pieces by Kurdish independence, occupied by Turkey, defended (sort of) by Russia (who can’t attack Turkey without risking a NATO response), and Israeli and all the armed militias. At some point Assad has to make a choice. Iran? Russia? Deal with Israel?
Putin does not want Iran to limit Russia’s relations with other powers in the region that he’s been courting in the . Putin has long been personally courting in the middle east...the Saudis, other Gulf Sunni Arabs, and Israel, and in this pursuit does not want to get boxed in by overly intimate ties with Iran.
Putin wants the United States out of the region and to cement Assad’s hold on power in Damascus...that’s the end game.
It’s all quite interesting as it plays out. But I have no doubts Assad will hold his office, at least for a time, Edogan will continue to be a thorn in everyones side, and Iran is in such rough shape I doubt they can continue in Syria economically if for no other reason.
BTW Israel’s attacks were basically supported by Russia....they just turned their head. Russia indeed wants Iran out of Syria, but I have concerns how Iran would retaliate with all the pressures they’re facing........... A direct hit on Damascus would not surprise me.
“Iran supports ISIS and plays all terrorists groups.....that’s who they are.”
Sometimes. I’m not sure everything is so set in stone there. I think loyalties ebb and flo like they do in Lebanon.
Russia could have completely obliterated an isis convoy without taking down bridges....and all the Iranian troops and capital investment in Syria and Lebanon are at Putin’s mercy...Iran will do nothing like a good little mullah...
Russia also competes with the ME when it comes to oil. If there is always some shiite being stirred up there, Russia can sell guns to them and oil to Europe.
Head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh criticized Moscow, saying, “If the S-300 systems in Syria operated correctly, the Israeli military would be unable to easily conduct airstrikes on Syria.” He went on to speculate that there seems to be coordination between the attacks and Russian-provided air defenses deployed in Syria.
Iranian public opinion, which has always been sensitive toward Tehran’s ties with Moscow, was further alarmed when Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in a Jan. 26 interview that Israel’s security is a top priority for Russia, adding that he doesn’t see Iran and Russia as allies in Syria.
More likely? Russia sees what is about to happen in Iran.
The sanctions are working, the Iranians are not blaming their suffering upon the US, but want to be free from the Insane Mullahs who keep killing and killing for disagreeing with them.
“back channel” bump.
Thanks for ping
And soon the 3 may be reduced.
And then there were 2.
But do you think Erdoooo didn’t notice the change? He could be next.
Now, that one could have some explosive force.
Lets hope that you are correct.
We will soon see.
If if recall rightly Iran was greatly annoyed with Russia for not supplying them with Russian systems that could have prevented Israel’s air-strikes.
Trying to figure out the middle easts relationships with Russia has always been difficult, but seen in the light of what stands to be favorable for Russia can give you an edge as it is always first for Putin... regardless of which side at any time he leans to. It’s a balancing act he’s well versed at doing having to contend with the middle east countries as neighbors.
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