Divorce Rates Are Falling, but Put a Hold on the Celebration

National review ^ | October 31, 2019 6:30 AM | By ALAN J. HAWKINS & BETSY VANDENBERGH

[RomanSoldier19]

The specter of divorce still haunts young adults and disadvantaged couples, contributing to family instability.

[RomanSoldier19]

“ Today demographers estimate that about 40 percent of first marriages and 60 percent of second marriages will end in divorce”

“ in a way aptly phrased by NR’s Kyle Smith: “Warning: Do. Not. Get. Divorced. But since you can never be sure your partner won’t dump you, really, you shouldn’t get married. Or fall in love in the first place. Best bet: Don’t be born.””

[DoodleBob]

As is usual, the research is wrong on this subject.

If you dig in, you'll find the quoted statistic is 2.9 divorces for every 1000 people in 2017. That's fine...except single people can't get divorced.

Since divorce is at the state level, and many states don't report this data, we need to make some assumptions.

While the 2014 divorce total of 814k excludes data for California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, and Minnesota, let’s be conservative and gross up 814k by 20%/close to the percentage of electoral votes those states represent...about one million divorces versus about 68.5 million marriages (using IRS data, there are 54MM MFJ filers and 29MM MFS). Doing the math, that’s 1MM divorces / (54MM plus 29MM/2) is 1/68.5 or 1.5% divorce rate.

That's clearly not 0.29% but it's also not the erroneous 50% rate quoted.

[Truthoverpower]

The only marriage that counts is yours

I treat my wife like a queen. And she wants to spend her life with me

[JoeFromSidney]

I've been married twice, widowed once. Both marriages very happy. Choose wisely and you're not likely to get burned.

[TnTnTn]

Good advice....::Idid not choose wisely....

[Drew68]

I've been married twice, widowed once. Both marriages very happy. Choose wisely and you're not likely to get burned.

People also need to have realistic expectations of what a marriage is. It's not always sweeping romantic fairytale bliss for eternity. Once kids come along, it becomes something of a small business; the business of child-rearing. I love my wife with all my heart and she does me but with four kids, we're keeping a ship afloat and we each have a job to do and our own responsibilities.

[Secret Agent Man]

Given the current state of affairs, the advice is correct.

Especially for men.

[arthurus]

Wife and I had our 50th in July.

[ThanhPhero]

In Việt Nam outside of the big cities, marriage is still basically a contract between families. Love matches are there are but they are much less likely to last than the family deals. In arranged marriages both parties enter as a duty and learn get used to each other and while there is no first flush of romantic love there is no fading of such either, no disappointment. Divorce is easy in Việt Nam but, again outside of the big cities, fairly rare. The cities have large numbers of youth who get married without consulting their families who are far away. It is for Love or for Convenience with no thought to the duties and requirements of real marriage and these marriages are much more apt to end in divorce.

In traditional marriages wives have dowries, usually for the non-wealthy in gold bracelets and neck chains that are theirs and should the husband dump the wife she has some resources. My own marriage was not a love match and has fared quite well.

My buddy's ̣(in VN) eldest son got married in September to a lass from a very poor family. Thương's mother was upset because there was concerned for Nhi, the bride, because there was no dowry. Ultimately I was induced to provide that. I wish I had got pictures of her with the gold on her.It also meant that I was broke for my last ten days there.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

“Divorce rates falling, women and children hardest hit.”

[SamAdams76]

Married almost 35 years now. I agree with your premise which essentially boils down to "happy wife, happy life"

Yeah, marriage appears to suck sometimes. It's the "grass is greener" syndrome that results in a lot of divorces. Try not to fall for it (the temptation) and treat your wife like a queen so she'll never consider leaving in the first place.

[kearnyirish2]

Congratulations! I’m not halfway there yet, but hope to see the same.

God bless you both!